Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[Uboat509]

David,

About the viability of the proposed state - I don't think the Tauregs are less economically viable than either Nigeria or Mauritania.

Nigeria has a lot of oil. If the finance minister can do what she has set out to do, is a lot of potential for growth there. There is probably even enough to spread some prosperity to the North. That would undermine support for BH, which, in turn, might lead to more foreign direct investment as the region became more stable which then leads to more stability and so on. Unfortunately that is a pretty big if.

Mauritania does not but its economy is about 81% industry and services. That is a big improvement over an agrarian economy. Their DDP per capita (PPP) is only about $2200 but that is an improvement over 2009. Their real growth, as measured by GDP, was about 5% over the last two years (after a 1.2% contraction in 2009). That isn't a blistering pace but not bad for a developing world state with no mineral wealth.

Overall Mali's growth over the last two years has not been bad (also about 5%) but its economy is still ~39% agriculture based and GDP per capita (PPP) is still around $1300. Much of the industry and services are located south of Timbuktu. For that matter, if memory serves, most of the best agricultural land is south of Timbuktu as well. The increasing desertification of Sub-Saharan Africa has left much of the land in the north of countries like Mali and Niger unfit for much agriculture. One of the problems that has led to this uprising is the limited economic support that the Tuareg have gotten from Bamako. I am not sure how creating a separate state is going to fix that.

[Fuchs]

Mauritania does not but its economy is about 81% industry and services. That is a big improvement over an agrarian economy. Their DDP per capita (PPP) is only about $2200 but that is an improvement over 2009. Their real growth, as measured by GDP, was about 5% over the last two years (after a 1.2% contraction in 2009). That isn't a blistering pace but not bad for a developing world state with no mineral wealth.

IIRC Mauritania has substantial mineral riches and wikipedia happens to agree:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mauritania


Btw, IIRC the Touareg do prefer to be called Imuhagh. "Touareg" is a foreigner-coined derogatory term; IIRC it means something like "dirty ones".

[Uboat509]

IIRC Mauritania has substantial mineral riches and wikipedia happens to agree:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mauritania


Btw, IIRC the Touareg do prefer to be called Imuhagh. "Touareg" is a foreigner-coined derogatory term; IIRC it means something like "dirty ones".

I pulled my data off of the CIA world factbook. Perhaps I overstated that they have no mineral wealth but compared to places like Nigeria and Libya, they do not have a lot of mineral wealth. They are focused more on inviting foreign direct investment than on exploiting mineral wealth.

As for the name Tuareg, that is the name that all of the ones that I have known used for themselves. I never heard any of them complain about that and most of them would not have hesitated to do so if they were so inclined. They are not a meek people.

[KingJaja]

A lot of noise has been made about the Nigerian finance minister. She isn't actually the person driving the economy, the president and the cabal that got him elected are.

The interests of the cabal do not intersect neatly with the World Bank textbook knowledge she has in her head. There are a few extremely important reforms like the deregulation of the downstream sector of the economy, the petroleum industry bill and power sector reforms that have been stalled.

Right now she has a very mixed (to put it mildly) reputation in Nigeria. Inflation is up, disposable incomes are down. The Fast Moving Consumer Goods Sector of the real economy has stalled. Power generation hasn't improved substantially.

Please understand that insiders, not outsiders (even the economist) are the best placed to assess the performance of African public servants. And definitely not the Western business community that barely ventures out of their comfort zone in Lagos.

[KingJaja]

I pulled my data off of the CIA world factbook. Perhaps I overstated that they have no mineral wealth but compared to places like Nigeria and Libya, they do not have a lot of mineral wealth. They are focused more on inviting foreign direct investment than on exploiting mineral wealth.

As for the name Tuareg, that is the name that all of the ones that I have known used for themselves. I never heard any of them complain about that and most of them would not have hesitated to do so if they were so inclined. They are not a meek people.

Always read statistics about Africa with an awareness that nobody really knows what they are talking about.

In the early 2000's, I worked in a consulting firm, based on ITU statistics, there was no way Nigeria could support 70 million mobile phone subscribers. After all, the GDP per capita figures were extremely low and we only had 300,000 land lines.

Naturally, Western firms shied away from investing in Nigeria and the South Africans took over that market. Vodafone realised its mistake and tried its best to get back into the market, but it was too late.

We've tried to do market assessments for Indian firms and firms all over the World. But we just don't know what is going on because data is so unreliable. Census figures are sometimes wildly overstated (or understated). NGOs overstate mortality figures and poverty statistics to increase funding from donor governments. And official statistics are extremely dodgy.

[Fuchs]

A hundreds of km long desert rail line between iron ore deposits and a harbour requires no statistics in order to tell me that they have mineral resources to speak of.

[KingJaja]

Has the inevitable breakup of Africa's artificial states begun in earnest?

"We solemnly proclaim the independence of Azawad as from today," said Mossa Ag Attaher, who added that the rebels would respect "the borders with other states."
Armed Islamists had stormed the Algerian consulate in northeastern Mali and abducted seven diplomats on Thursday amid fears Al Qaeda-linked fighters are turning the country into a rogue state and fuelling a humanitarian crisis.
As the Tuareg trumpeted the success of a decades-old struggle to "liberate" their homeland, their fundamentalist comrades-turned-rivals began imposing sharia law in parts of northern Mali.
The MNLA said as a result of their successful conquest of an area they call the Azawad, they were halting all military operations from midnight on Thursday.
Ag Attaher declared: "We completely accept the role and responsibility that behoves us to secure this territory. We have ended a very important fight, that of liberation ... now the biggest task commences."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...of-Azawad.html

[Uboat509]

A hundreds of km long desert rail line between iron ore deposits and a harbour requires no statistics in order to tell me that they have mineral resources to speak of.

Probably not enough to survive on and even then it would require the Mauritanians to give those resources up. I would not bet on that.