Caveats
[originally sent as an email reply]
This is an interesting read; however, the zeal with which LTC Petit describes the social media ‘revolution’ demands tempering with a few significant caveats. First and foremost, the success the Arab street to mobilize via social media in any country is dependent on the nature of the country’s government. Egypt and Tunisia were soft dictatorships, unwilling to take the steps necessary to protect the regime, e.g., shutting down mobile phones and internet service, let alone a true violent response. Contrast the success in those countries to the events in Syria and Libya, where the regimes took the steps necessary to maintain power: Qaddafi only fell thanks to external military and technological intervention, and Homs has become Bashar’s Hama.
Second, what worked yesterday will not work tomorrow as the remaining regimes are taking notes and action. Look at Iran’s movements toward establishing an insulated national intranet, robust security apparatus, and willingness to shut down networks as needed; as well as, the regime’s use of its own version of social mobilization with the basij to counter anti-regime activity. In the hands of a savvy regime, social media can be as powerful a tool for control as it is for change.
Third, social media is just that, social. It comes with serious security drawbacks for organizing a resistance movement. Just look at Britain’s use of Facebook and Twitter posts in conjunction with a ubiquitous CCTV system to track down key participants in the recent riots. Also look at Britain's recent proposal to give its intelligence service unfettered access to all phone and internet activities. If a democratic state can make such use of social media for legitimate criminal prosecution, it is easy to imagine an autocratic regime doing the same in the face of overthrow. There’s anecdotal reporting China used key word filters on the net and mobile phones to nip discussion of a “Jasmine Spring” in the proverbial bud.
Finally, social media as the organizing tool for a truly acephalous organization offers grand opportunities for deception. The examples thus far have been fairly innocuous--such as the Syrian blogger who was in fact an American ex-pat in Scotland—however, it is not too difficult to see the opportunity for deception on the part of a besieged regime.
Social media is important, and we must take it into account; however, social media like all technology is but a tool, not a panacea.
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