South China Sea and China

[Ray]

After warning India, China asks Russia to stay away from South China Sea


BEIJING: India has now got company of another country, Russia, in being the target of Chinese ire over the South China Sea controversy. China on Tuesday hit out against the Russian decision to explore for oil in sea areas that Beijing claims to be its own.

China has been vehemently opposed to ONGC Videsh Limited exploring for oil in the sea area along with a Vietnamese company. A Russian company has now joined the exploration work in the area.

Talking to reporters on Tuesday, foreign ministry Liu Weimin expressed the hope that foreign companies should respect and support the efforts of countries in South China Sea region to settle their disputes instead of meddling in the affair.

http://m.timesofindia.com/PDATOI/art...w/12611993.cms

China already has a dispute with Vietnam and have clashed in the South China Sea.

[Dayuhan]

Worth noting that the Vietnamese are involved with both Indian and Russian companies in offshore exploration joint ventures. That's not an accident. It underscores that the Vietnamese are not moving into the US camp or taking the US side... they are on their own side, and are building a whole range of relationships they see as useful in advancing their own perceived interests.

[Ray]

MANILA, Philippines (AP) — The Philippine government says its largest warship is engaged in a standoff with Chinese surveillance vessels that blocked it when it attempted to arrest Chinese fishermen anchored at a South China Sea shoal where both sides claim sovereignty.

Foreign Secretary Albert Del Rosario on Wednesday summoned Chinese Ambassador Ma Keqing to resolve the dangerous impasse diplomatically. His office said in a statement that the Scarborough Shoal "is an integral part of Philippine territory" and Filipino authorities would assert sovereignty over the offshore area.

The shoal lies off the northwestern Philippine province of Zambales. China and the Philippines have been disputing ownership of the shoal, in addition to the Spratly Islands and other areas in the South China Sea.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...4ebb96d5d96322

[Ray]

Originally Posted by Dayuhan

Worth noting that the Vietnamese are involved with both Indian and Russian companies in offshore exploration joint ventures. That's not an accident. It underscores that the Vietnamese are not moving into the US camp or taking the US side... they are on their own side, and are building a whole range of relationships they see as useful in advancing their own perceived interests.

Commercial ventures and strategic issues are two different issue, though can be used to one's advantage.

[Ray]

An Outraged Chinese General Tells The Philippines It's Their 'Last Chance'

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/china...#ixzz1rfKGrvrb

And how do we read this with Post #83

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...4ebb96d5d96322

Philippines has the armed might to faceoff China?

Or is Philippines getting the courage from some other assurances?

And what could they be?

[Dayuhan]

The Philippines has no capacity to "face off" with China, or for that matter with anyone else. Neither have they any assurance that the US will provide any military backing, in fact the US has often said that it does not consider events in disputed territory to be attacks on the Philippines (which would trigger a mutual defense treaty). They'll push as far as they can without initiating combat, not because somebody's given them courage but because they see it as a situation they can exploit (and of course as a situation in which they are inherently right).

Despite their lack of capacity, the Philippines has regularly arrested Chinese fisherman and impounded their boats, for years. This is the first time I can remember when the Chinese actively protected fishing boats. They're presumably making a point of shoving around the least capable co-claimant in the SCS disputes, and also probing to see what responses from the other claimants, and from the US, will be. I wouldn't expect either side to start shooting, though of course things don't always go as planned.

The Philippines will try to extract maximum leverage out of the incident. They're already stressing that inspections found the Chinese ships with coral, giant clams, and sharks, trying to position themselves not only as defenders of their own territory but also as defenders of the marine environment. That claim is a bit specious, as Philippine fishermen routinely harvest all of the above and sell them to the Chinese, but they will milk it for all it's worth.

The US may try to work some leverage of its own by pushing for a more regular presence at Subic (very close to the contested area), thought it's not likely they'd work for anything with the word "permanent" in it. They might send a ship or aircraft to "observe", if they've anything close enough, though that's less likely. They might also announce re-opening discussion of the sale (on affordable terms, which would have to be cheap) of fighters, more credible warships, or shore-based surface-surface and/or surface-air missiles, which of course is what the Philippines will be working toward.

We'll see.

PS: On a possibly ironic note, the Philippine Navy ship involved, the Gregorio Del Pilar (a retired US Coast Guard cutter), is named after a hero of the Philippine-American War, who died in a noble but completely futile action against a hugely superior American force. Hopefully history will not go about repeating itself.

[Ray]

Silly Filipinos, right?

[Dayuhan]

Not so silly... they'll do what little they can with what little they have, and try to work the situation to help them get a bit more. What else can they do?

[Bill Moore]

Interesting developments, all of them foreseeable. The issues concerning disputed territories not only concern access to energy, but also food security. Chinese fishing ships have been challenged in Oceania, the territorial waters of Indonesia, India, Vietnam, and the Philippines at a minimum. Recently Chinese fishermen were shot and killed by the Palau Coast Guard. The Chinese Navy challenged the Indonesia when the Indonesian's attempted to detain one of their fishing boats.

We'll see where China's gun boat fishing activity leads, it is a dangerous game of brinksmanship.

[Dayuhan]

From the CS Monitor...

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terro...outh-China-Sea

The Chinese Embassy statement says the fishing boats were simply taking shelter near the island due to inclement weather.

Then the following photo:

This photo shows two Chinese surveillance ships which sailed between a Philippines warship and eight Chinese fishing boats to prevent the arrest of any fishermen in the Scarborough Shoal, a small group of rocky formations whose sovereignty is contested by the Philippines and China, in the South China Sea, about 124 nautical miles off the main island of Luzon on April 10.

Courtesy of Philippine Army/Reuters

That seems an odd sort of "inclement weather"... was the sea too flat for good sailing? Or maybe they were becalmed?

[Ray]

Russia has also been warned to keep off by China!

They are serious about the issue, but one wonders how far will they press on!

[carl]

Originally Posted by Ray

They are serious about the issue, but one wonders how far will they press on!

They do appear to have definitely made their minds up about this don't they?

[Ray]

Originally Posted by carl

They do appear to have definitely made their minds up about this don't they?

China appears is at its tethers end and her patience is running out.

Though they have claimed the whole South China Sea, I read somewhere that they control 13% physically.

There is no doubt that China requires the natural resources that is there in the South China Sea to engine her growth. The South China Sea is also required by China to establish her strategic presence in the area as also to have unfettered access into the Pacific.

But then so do others require it.

Philippines has a Treaty with the US.

There is no doubt that the situation is ripe for confrontation, but will the Chinese precipitate any crisis?

Maybe and maybe not.

Would China like to lose goodwill of its neighbours? Even if it is not concerned about the goodwill aspect given that China might find the South China Sea more important for China than goodwill, there is the danger that it will spook her other friends beyond the Pacific rim. That may not go down well.

One wonders what China will do.

US will surely be watching the issue closely.

[carl]

Originally Posted by Ray

US will surely be watching the issue closely.

Maybe it is more along the lines of others watching what the US will do.

[Ray]

Originally Posted by carl

Maybe it is more along the lines of others watching what the US will do.

Who knows maybe you are right.

When US sneezes, the world catches a cold!

[Dayuhan]

Again, it's worth noting that this is not the first time this has happened or a new step up in how far the Chinese are willing to push.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/...ghts-indonesia

The August 3 edition of the Mainichi Daily News, a Japanese newspaper, reported on a June 23 confrontation over a fleet of 10 Chinese fishing vessels operating without permission in Indonesia's EEZ. A stand-off over the Indonesian navy's seizure of a Chinese fishing boat almost got out of control when a Chinese "fishery management vessel" – which was actually a repurposed heavy gunboat – threatened to fire on the Indonesian navy patrol boat. According to the article, the fishery management vessel pointed its large-caliber machine gun at the carbon-hulled Indonesian craft, at which point the outgunned patrol boat released the errant Chinese trawler. The article says that a similar episode occurred in May, with the same large Chinese warship having likewise successfully threatened an Indonesian naval patrol that was detaining an illegal Chinese fishing boat.

[carl]

Originally Posted by Dayuhan

Again, it's worth noting that this is not the first time this has happened or a new step up in how far the Chinese are willing to push.

That is not at all reassuring.

[Ray]

I wonder if a stand off with Indonesia would be same as a stand off with Philippines.

For the life of me, I cannot understand as to why with an old warship, the Philippines is cocking the snook.

Is there more than what meets the eye?

What is China trying to do?

For a powerful nation, this is childish an action of sending ships when diplomacy would have worked or even aggressive bombastic for which they are famed!

[Bill Moore]

The Philippines summoned Chinese ambassador Ma Keqing on Wednesday to lodge a protest over the incident. However, China maintained it had sovereign rights over the area and asked that the Philippine ship leave the waters.

China's state-run newspaper China Daily claimed in an editorial that the Chinese fishermen were "harassed" by the Philippine naval boat.

"China should take more measures to safeguard its maritime territory," the newspaper stated.

"The latest moves by China's two neighbours are beyond tolerance," it added, referring to Vietnam. "They are blatant challenges to China's territorial integrity."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17686107

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Ray

I wonder if a stand off with Indonesia would be same as a stand off with Philippines.

That would depend on the specific circumstances involved. Indonesia has a larger and more capable Navy, but if the only ship on the scene is an outmatched patrol boat, that may not matter. In the cases cited, the Indonesian ship backed down. In other cases, both Indonesia and the Philippines have impounded boats and arrested fishermen. Each case is different.

Originally Posted by Ray

For the life of me, I cannot understand as to why with an old warship, the Philippines is cocking the snook.

Why should they not? It's a game of bluff and bluster, not a shooting war. The Chinese ships on the scene are designated as civilian vessels and are believed to be unarmed. Why didn't the Chinese put Navy ships on the scene? Maybe wanting to up the ante and observe reactions without upping it too much? Of course the reasoning is unknown, but there's little sign that anybody wants or intends to initiate actual combat.

Originally Posted by Ray

Is there more than what meets the eye?

Probably not.

Originally Posted by Ray

What is China trying to do?

Establish a presence and test reactions.

Originally Posted by Ray

For a powerful nation, this is childish an action of sending ships when diplomacy would have worked or even aggressive bombastic for which they are famed!

Big nations intruding on the fishing grounds of smaller ones isn't exactly unheard of in other places... I believe the Somalis have complained about the same thong, and I suppose you've heard of the cod wars.