'Nigeria: the (wide) context for violence'

[Stan]

Originally Posted by KingJaja

Stan,

I have lived in Abuja. One doesn't normally hear gunfire in the vicinity of the US embassy. Also remember that the US embassy is in the same area as the bombed UN headquarters.

Jaja, at nearly a mile away building to building, I don't know if I could say the embassy is in the same area as the UN building. But, we won't quibble over distances

Not sure how much stock you have in The Daily Trust, but this recent article sounds a little easier to swallow:

There was panic at the diplomatic zone in Abuja yesterday after sounds were heard which U.S. embassy officials said were of gunshots fired near the well-guarded mission.

But the police said there were no gunshots and witnesses said the sounds were of fireworks set off by teenagers at an undeveloped plot near the American embassy.

Then there's this half-baked Press Release from the embassy (I'm embarrassed to even be an American reading this garbage - waste of paper IMO):

But, then, a happy and relatively speaking funny ending as quoted:

A petty trader at the location said in pidgin English, “I hear noise and see smoke; people dey run and I think say na knock out and people say na gun shot, naim I pick my egg roll and Kunu and run too.”

[KingJaja]

Why would teenagers set off fireworks by this time of the year? It is neither Easter nor Christmas. (We don't just set off fireworks for no reason and given the very tense atmosphere in Abuja, I doubt they'd be stupid enough to do that).

Secondly, nobody accepts what the police say without taking a massive dollop of salt. They have been shown to incompetent (Bomb attacks on Police HQ in Abuja and UN HQ in Abuja). So they are motivated to wish this away.

Anyway, I don't know, but I strongly suspect that it was a more malign thing than teenagers setting off fireworks. What the police did was most probably to arrest a few passers by and claim they are responsible for setting off "fireworks".

[Stan]

Like I said, not sure how much stock you have in the Daily Trust.

A police officer attached to the U.S. embassy said they received the report of the sounds like gunshots at about 2pm.

“We went round the area (diplomatic zone) to find out what happened together with some SSS officials. We searched the bush nearby and found fireworks casing which we examined and found it was used not long ago. We questioned three people around the area and later released them when we found that they were not behind the fireworks,” he said.

As far as kids with pyrotechnics go, we face that challenge each and every day regardless of the season, climate, holiday, etc.

An abandoned lot, regardless of the neighbors seems pretty tempting even at my age

[KingJaja]

I might be wrong and the Daily Trust is quoting the police.

I just don't know. It is perfectly possible that teens could be fooling around, I just don't know. Never heard of fireworks around any embassy before in Nigeria and the US embassy isn't exactly in a heavily populated area. It is a fortress like building in a semi-isolated part of Abuja (near the Chinese embassy which is also quite impressive - somebody is trying to make a statement here).

[KingJaja]

Fallout out from Boko Haram. They expect the effects to be felt at the end of the year. Can anyone please explain further what the impact is likely to be?

THE National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has warned of a possible famine in the country, following a massive displacement of small and large-scale farmers from the North-East as a result of the Boko Haram insurgency in the area.

To curb further migration of farmers and livestock breeders, NEMA has constituted an Inter-Agency Contingency Committee (IACC).

The warning was made in the “2012 NEMA Report on Boko Haram Insurgency and Disasters in the North-East” made available to The Guardian yesterday in Maiduguri, Borno State.

The report read in part: “Nigeria may face famine by the end of this year because most of the small-scale farmers and big-time farmers in the North are threatened by the Boko Haram attacks. More than 65 per cent of such farmers have already migrated to the southern parts of Nigeria, fearing that the insecurity to both lives and property, including their farmlands and livestock, continues to persist for nearly three years.”

It further stated: “The Boko Haram attacks on these farmers who produce beans, onions, pepper, maize, rice, livestock and catfish in the Lake Chad area for the southern states in the country, have forced them to migrate since the insurgency broke out in Borno State in July 2009.”

The report also stated that the Boko Haram attacks had caused “a wholesale shift to a terrorism-focused approach to disasters in the North-East states,” comprising Borno, Adamawa, Yobe, Gombe, Bauchi and Taraba.

In addition, the report disclosed that the zonal office of NEMA had received an alert from the military on the need to prepare humanitarian contingency frame-work on the implications of the United Nations (UN) Peace-keeping troops withdrawals from Chad and Sudan, as well as the relative peace that might return to Central African Republic.

The displaced and idle rebels from these countries, it is feared, may see Nigeria as a fertile ground to explore for their nefarious activities, especially the border-states in the North-East.

The NEMA report stated that the insurgents, who invaded from neighbouring countries, have attacked several villages in Kala/Balge Local Council of Borno State.

“The foreign invaders imposed various sum of levies and taxes on the villagers ranging from N1 million to N3 million, according to the sizes of the village,” it stated.

The report also stated that the post-election violence displaced 10,000 people in the sub-region, with Bauchi State having the highest of 4,300 while Yobe and Gombe states had 507 and 498 in that order.

http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index...nal&Itemid=559

[Stan]

Originally Posted by KingJaja

I might be wrong and the Daily Trust is quoting the police.

I believe they are quoting the local hire cop at the embassy. Those tend to be better fed, paid and trained, and, generally don't BS the regional security officer.

Originally Posted by KingJaja

I just don't know. It is perfectly possible that teens could be fooling around, I just don't know. Never heard of fireworks around any embassy before in Nigeria and the US embassy isn't exactly in a heavily populated area. It is a fortress like building in a semi-isolated part of Abuja (near the Chinese embassy which is also quite impressive - somebody is trying to make a statement here).

I checked out the area with our maps today. There is literally tons of room for young boys to get into trouble around the embassy - did you not do stupid things in your childhood ? May have to send you back to the States and show you how we blew up jack-o'-lanterns right across the street from the White House

As for the fortresses - remember the theory about the weakest link ?
The UN could pay better attention to why we don't have any more vehicles speeding into our embassies. No straight path - real simple stuff that a lot of people had to die for before we figured out the obvious.

[KingJaja]

The Nigerian name quoted is Northern, and Muslim. Doesn't help North-South, Muslim-Christian relationships.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. has hit two Iranian companies with sanctions for helping Iranian special forces export arms.

Tuesday’s action also penalized a Nigerian shipping agent and three members of Iran’s hardline Quds Force.

The Treasury Department said Yas Air and Quds officials Esmail Ghani, Sayyid Ali Akbar Tabatabaei and Hosein Aghajani shipped weapons to the Mideast and Africa as Iran sought to “evade international sanctions and export violence.” The airline moved assault rifles and mortar shells to Syria under cover of humanitarian aid.

The department cited Behineh Trading’s involvement in a shipment of grenades, rockets and mortars seized in Nigeria in 2010. Nigerian agent Ali Abbas Usman Jega was described as complicit.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...EeS_story.html

[Stan]

Originally Posted by KingJaja

The Nigerian name quoted is Northern, and Muslim. Doesn't help North-South, Muslim-Christian relationships.

Removing illicit arms and larger caliber projectiles from waring factions (among other things and destinations) was the intent of the sanctions, at least according to the Department of the Treasury's website here. But no, it probably won't do much for the current impasse in Nigeria.

Behineh Trading, the shipping company, and the Nigerian agent designated today were involved in a weapons shipment seized in Nigeria in late October 2010. This weapons shipment – orchestrated by the IRGC-QF and intended for The Gambia – is part of a larger pattern of Iranian lethal aid shipments to clients in Africa and around the world.

This however has some semblance of hope:

Bomb factory discovered in Kogi

[KingJaja]

Nothing illustrates a state in retreat/a failing state like this factoid - up to 70 percent of all schools in Lagos are privately owned! Think about it, in spite of the massive amounts of money available to Nigerian government over the last decade, the government has failed to (a) either provide the infrastructure for education or (b) adequately train teachers.

There are about 1.9 million children of school age in Lagos and out of that number only about 400,000 are enrolled in public schools. Since the literacy rate in Lagos is about 92 percent, one can assume that at least 1.4 million children are enrolled in private schools!

Lagos is the richest part of Nigeria. The situation in Lagos should give you an idea of what the difficulties would be in Northern Nigeria. Spending money on that part of the country simply won't do the trick. Government lacks the capacity to adequately administer Nigeria. Very troubling.

Lagos — A peep into the result of census of schools in Lagos conducted towards the end of last year has shown that most of the schools in the state are privately owned.

A comprehensive result of the census of primary and secondary schools conducted by the Lagos State Government in collaboration with Education Sector Support Programme in Nigeria (ESSPIN) beginning last year November would be made known in a later date.

ESSPIN Lagos State Team Leader, Dr. Gboyega Ilusanya, disclosed that as many as 70 per cent of all the schools in the state are owned by private operators. He, however, emphasised that the census is basically for data collection intended to develop the sector through strategic planning.

Ilusanya, who was guest at a recent media-training event in Lagos, also noted that the private schools were more willing to be part of the census, because they were assured that the exercise was not going to be used to deal with them for defaulting on standards.

He said the result of the census would aid in the provision of necessary information on enrolment, location and name-search for both public and private schools operating in the state.

EMIS State Specialist of ESSPIN (Kwara and Lagos), Dr. Joanna Harma, who explained the rationale for the schools' census in an interview with Daily Independent said, "The private school growth in Lagos has been spontaneous and unassisted by government, and these schools' ability to serve the population at nearly all socio-economic levels is highly significant. Therefore, the contributions of private schools needed to be recognised and better understood."

She remarked that the federal government's estimation of about 1.9 million children of school age in the state cannot be adequately backed by any document, adding that the state government can only account for 400,000 in public schools, meaning the rest of the children are out of the school or in private schools.

She also doused fears that the exercise was meant for inspection purposes and tax collection, adding that the data was basically to be used for planning purposes and possibly for designing intervention programmes to support private school initiatives in the state.

Ilusanya noted, "There is a peculiar issue in Lagos. The number of children in public primary school is documented by government. At the point of transition to Junior Secondary School, the state usually had more than 100 per cent transition. If we are expecting 100 from public schools to move into JSS or SSS classes in schools owned by government, we end up having more than 100 per cent enrolment. At that time one begins to wonder where they are coming from. This, most times, destabilises government plans, programmes and strategy for learning because the data of likely number that may come from the private schools is not accurate or non-existent and these are important and invaluable information needed for planning

[KingJaja]

I know that US foreign policy towards Israel is heavily influenced by evangelicals. What impact would these people have on US Africa policy if current Islamist inspired terrorism is presented as a struggle between Islam and Christianity for souls in one of the World's largest "mission grounds".

When are we likely to start hearing from Franklin Graham?

I recall that Gbagbo was presented as "Christian" being undermined by "Muslims". And that a serving US parliamentarian was openly in support of Gbagbo. Gbagbo is small potatoes, but Nigeria with its mega pastors and TBN (Trinity Broadcasting Network) superstars may be another matter all together.

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by KingJaja

I know that US foreign policy towards Israel is heavily influenced by evangelicals.

The actual degree of influence is very much debatable. Lots of factors driving US support for Israel, difficult to say exactly how much influence any given one actually has.

Originally Posted by KingJaja

What impact would these people have on US Africa policy if current Islamist inspired terrorism is presented as a struggle between Islam and Christianity for souls in one of the World's largest "mission grounds".

My guess would be none. There's a very strong resistance in the US to involvement in African conflicts, it's seen as a black hole from which no positive escape is possible. I doubt that the evangelicals could overcome that resistance, or even that they'd try very hard.

[KingJaja]

Seems like Boko Haram again. Later reports suggest two suicide car bombs. Quite worrying as Northern Nigeria seems to have no shortage of suicide bombers.

(Reuters) - A car bomb exploded in the north Nigerian town of Kaduna on Easter Sunday, killing several people, after security officers stopped the driver from approaching a church, witnesses and emergency services said.

"A suicide bomber in a vehicle was moving towards the ECWA Church and the All Nations Christian Assembly," said Tony Udo, a Kaduna resident.

"Security agents accosted and repelled him. While he was driving away, the bomb went off at Junction Road, near the Stadium roundabout, killing the bomber and some commercial motorcyclists," Udo told Reuters.

"The blast from the bomb also shattered the windows of the church, some nearby houses and vehicles parked nearby. The area has been condoned off by security agents," Udo added.

Nigeria has ramped up security across the largely Muslim north before the Christian Easter holiday because of fears of a repeat of attacks by the Islamist sect Boko Haram that killed dozens on Christmas Day last year.

One of the sect's Christmas Day bomb attacks in the north killed at least 37 people and wounded more than 50 at a church.

Boko Haram, a movement loosely styled on Afghanistan's Taliban, has killed hundreds this year in bomb and gun attacks that mostly target police, the military and the government.

The sect says it wants its imprisoned members released and sharia, Islamic law, applied throughout Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation.

In the remote northeast town of Maiduguri, Boko Haram's homeland, the military outnumbered the public on some streets on Sunday.

"Patrol is being intensified to forestall any breakdown in law and order," a spokesman for the joint military task force told Reuters.

In Nigeria's second biggest city Kano, where coordinated attacks in January killed 186 people, authorities deployed trucks of soldiers and a helicopter to try to prevent violence.

"I will stay away from church because we have been told by our pastor to be careful. We are afraid, everybody is afraid because we don't know when the next attack will come," said Jenifer Paul, a housewife in Kano.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/0...83705P20120408

[KingJaja]

CAN stands for Christian association of Nigeria. How significant is this statement? Very. It means that the Christian community will assume that the US government is allied with "Northern elements" sympathetic to Boko Haram.

There are two very prominent US friends of the Northern elite - John Campbell and Jean Herskovits and they are seen by the Christian community as (a) influencing US policy in Nigeria and (b) sympathetic to Boko Haram.

I think a wiser course of action for the US is to maintain a low profile (like the Brits) and allow Nigerians to sort themselves out. Telling the Nigerian people "what their problems are" or that "you understand the Nigerian situation better than they do" or "telling them how to solve their problems" openly was always going to backfire.

In the first place the US doesn't know jack about Nigeria and even less about its internal politics. Statements may be true, but politically uncalled for. The US hasn't learned the importance of keeping out of the internal politics of deeply polarised nations.

PRESIDENT, Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor has said the association reject the views of the American govern-ment as expressed by its Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Mr Johnnie Carson, on Boko Haram.

CAN, in a press release made available to the Nigerian Tribune, said it rejected the reason being pedlled by the American government and some Boko Haram apologists in the North that poverty and injustice was the spark for the action of the sect members.

Insisting that Boko Haram was a product of extreme religious ideology, CAN said the kind of arms and ammunition in the hands of the sect could only be purchased by those with heavy financial power.

“A fair comparison of any other region with the North shows that the section of the North referred to by Carson has been the greatest bene-ficiary of the project called Nigeria.

“The north has been in leadership for the greater part of Nigeria’s Golden Jubilee and its greatest annoyance seems to be the displacement from this position, because this same section of the region believes that they are born to rule,” the release said.

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/news...-on-boko-haram

[KingJaja]

For your information.

Abuja — Minister of State for Defence, Mrs. Olusola Obada, yesterday confirmed speculations that weapons stolen from Libyan armoury have found their way to Nigeria.

In the dying days of the regime of Libyan leader, Col. Muammar Gaddafi, the armoury was looted and some sophisticated weapons were reportedly stolen.

There had been unconfirmed reports that some of the looted weapons, which included surface-to-air launchers, had found their way into Nigeria and might be part of the Boko Haram armoury.

Obada, speaking in Abuja when a delegation of the National Defence University of Pakistan visited the Ministry of Defence, confirmed the report but expressed confidence that Nigeria is at peace with all countries of the world and, therefore, free from any form of external security threats, especially from its immediate neighbours.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201204110266.html

[Chowing]

Boko Haram puts a three month window on bring down Goodluck and the government. Could this be an empty threat? Not sure that many Nigerians would take it as such.

Nigerian Islamist sect Boko Haram also Jama’atu Ahl-Sunnati Lil Da’awati Wal Jihad intends to bring down the government and "devour" President Goodluck Jonathan within three months, its purported leader said in his second al Qaeda-style video

http://elombah.com/index.php/latest-...n-three-months

[KingJaja]

In three months they are going to attempt something very dynamic. If they pull it off, it gets very interesting and dangerous.

1. Any attempt on the life of Jonathan by Boko Haram will be interpreted as an attempt by the Northern Muslim elite to terminate his regime. There will be horrible reprisal attacks.

2. Jonathan is an Ijaw from the Niger Delta and is quite close to Niger Delta militants (he helped broker the last cease fire). Expect Nigeria's crude oil production to be affected if he is harmed.

3. For all their noise and violence Boko Haram is yet to cross the River (Niger) - i.e. they haven't posed a direct threat to Southern Nigeria, yet. If they do this, they would have crossed the River. Crossing the River means that all bets are off.

[KingJaja]

Suicide bombers kill eight yesterday in coordinated attacks on media houses. Two attacks at Abuja and Kaduna.

The media yesterday got a taste of the violence in some parts of Nigeria. Eight people died and 14 others were injured in a suicide bomb explosion at THISDAY office in Abuja and Kaduna where a building housing the newspaper as well as The Sun and Moments was attacked.
In the accident, three people died and two were injured. A suspect was arrested.
The bomber was among the casualties of the Kaduna incident.
The bombing also destroyed 10 vehicles and left the Press Hall badly damaged.
The once beautiful edifice became a shadow of itself - shattered windows, broken walls and shredded copies of part of today’s edition.
The imposing gate leading to the devastated Press Hall that houses the company’s Goss Community printing machine was destroyed.
The staff gate was severely damaged and partly burnt. The generator beside the gate was burnt. A part of the fence by the gate collapsed, felling a tree.
The wreckage of the suicide bomb vehicle was buried inside the devastated Press Hall. Policemen and aid workers were battling to retrieve it.
The newsroom was in tatters – upturned tables, smashed seats and crushed computers.
All the glasses in the building, including doors, were shattered. Parts of the roof were blown off with no ceiling left hanging.
The premises was strewn with pieces of shrapnel from the bomb laden vehicle and broken glasses.
A crater, which must have resulted from the impact of the blast, was seen about two meters from where the SUV was lodged. Parts of the wall of the building from where the car entered the premises caved in.
The huge loss drew tears from many workers and sympathisers. For about six hours, business was brought to a halt at Jabi Motor Park , the bustling transit station opposite the THISDAY office.
Islamist sect Boko Haram last night claimed respionsibility for the bombings. It threatened to target other journalists.

http://www.thenationonlineng.net/201...ia-houses.html

I watched snippets from the Southern Nigeria economic summit. It seems that the political leadership and people of that part of Nigeria are of the firm conviction that Boko Haram is a tool by Muslim politicians from Northern Nigeria to destabilise the Jonathan administration and thus position themselves for the presidency in 2015.

I don't think the risk to Nigeria is the presence of Al Qaida, the risk is in the reaction to Boko Haram. This is Africa, and if the rest of Nigeria gangs up to "punish the North" for permitting the presence of Boko Haram, it will not be pretty.

Right now, I am hearing a lot that gives me cause for worry. Muslim Northerners, understandably are extremely worried. There is a lot vitriol on the airwaves. People are blunt in their assessment of who they view as the "problem of Nigeria".

The Jonathan administration is weak and weak administrations tend to deflect blame on others.

Dangerous times.

[KingJaja]

Interesting read....

Boko Haram’s operations during the period of fall 2011 to spring 2012 began with the major series of suicide attacks, bombings and targeted murders in the Yobe state capital of Damaturu,[6] which killed at least 100 people. These operations were clearly designed to expel Christians from northern mid-range towns. (Much of the Christian population of Maiduguri already fled the city during the previous period, fall 2010-spring 2011.) Anecdotally, it seems that the Damaturu and follow-up operations in the states bordering Boko Haram’s core region of Borno and Yobe have succeeded in causing the balance of the Christian population to flee.

The next series of operations focused on Jos and Abuja, both cities with a substantial expatriate population and good media coverage. These attacks occurred on Christmas Day 2011, again a symbolic date guaranteed to make headlines.[7] These operations used suicide attacks against churches and killed at least 25 people. It is a mystery as to why this attack came as a surprise given that Boko Haram had previously executed spectacular attacks on Christian targets on Christmas Day in 2010. In Jos and Abuja, however, in contradistinction to the Damaturu attacks (and others in the northeast), the Christian population is quite strong—even at a majority level—and therefore there is no chance that Boko Haram, lacking broader military options, can do anything other than provoke terror. There have also been major thematic attacks on Christian targets on January 5, 6, 10, 11, 24 (all in either Maiduguri, Adumawa or Jos), February 19 (Suleja, near Abuja), and February 25, 2012 (Abuja and Jos), of which the Jos attack was a suicide bombing.[8]

Boko Haram has managed to take a semi-dysfunctional society lacking basic security and the rule of law and drive it into a complete state of dysfunction where the only obvious means by which order can be re-established is through draconian state-security methods (akin to Algeria in the 1990s) or by acceding to the group’s demands. The latter option would indeed cause a civil war, as the Christians through fall 2011 and spring 2012 have become increasingly impatient with the lack of tangible governmental progress against Boko Haram. There is a strong danger of revenge attacks by Christians on a local ad hoc basis,[9] or even worse the creation of an equivalent vigilante group that could mirror Boko Haram’s tactics.

http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/boko-h...rthern-nigeria

[KingJaja]

A LOT has been happening in Nigeria this past week, but since nobody is interested, I'll probably stop posting.

GUNMEN suspected to be Boko Haram members attacked students singing praises to herald church service inside the Bayero University, Kano, on Sunday, killing no fewer than 10 worshippers, while about 16 others sustained varying degrees of injury.

A professor, Andrew Leo, of Library Department, was among those killed in the bomb blast.

The university’s spokesman, Alhaji Mustapha Zaradeen confirmed the death of seven persons, who were mostly students and other worshippers from outside the university.

This is just as the chairman, Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) Kano State chapter, Bishop Ransom Bello, described the attack on students as barbaric.

The tragic event, which occurred at the old site of the university campus at about 8.30 a.m, caught the student unawares, as the invaders, who came on motorcycles, used Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and guns to send the victims to their untimely death.

The attack appeared to be a coordinated one, as the gunmen stormed the two centres where students were worshipping.

The two places services were being held were the Lecture Theatre, where an interdenominational service was holding and the Sport complex, where Catholic faithful were gathered. However, the highest member of casualties was recorded at the Sport complex.

A source, who preferred anonymity, said the gunmen came through the backgate on the new campus road of the university and immediately went straight to the lecture theatre and the sport complex, threw IEDs and fired their guns at the same time.

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/fron...bayero-varsity

Another attack on a Church in Maiduguri on Sunday.

(Reuters) - Nigerian Islamist sect Boko Haram killed four people in an attack on a Sunday church service in the northeast town of Maiduguri, police said on Monday, adding to the death toll from a separate shooting in the country's second largest city Kano.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...83T09420120430

Another attack this morning - extremely ominous because it appears that Boko Haram is moving down south. The police commissioner was targeted.

At least five people have been killed in a bomb attack on a police convoy in north-eastern Nigeria, police say.

"A bomber on a motorcycle rammed into the police rider [motorcycle escort]," a police spokesman said.

The attack in the normally quiet town of Jalingo comes a day after at least 20 people were killed at churches elsewhere in northern Nigeria.

No group has said it carried out the bombings but militant group Boko Haram has staged many such attacks.

It has carried out several suicide bombings across the mainly Muslim north of Nigeria, where it wants to establish Sharia law.

Some reports say local police commissioner Mamman Sule was targeted in the Jalingo attack.

Witnesses say Mr Sule survived the attack but that the huge explosion ripped through a nearby market and the local finance ministry offices, the AP news agency reports.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17895794



Mark out Maiduguri, Kano and Jalingo. Consider how far south Jalingo is. Is it possible that it is only a matter of time before Boko Haram moves further south?

Also remember that Nigeria is about the same size as Texas and California combined. It is a huge country. Boko Haram seems to have extensive logistical support.

We might be dealing with an organisation as well organised and potent as the Taliban in a few years.

[KingJaja]

Map illustrating Boko Haram's reach so far.