South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[carl]

I don't think any opinion stated here has any inherent credibility. I pointed out that one might expect those with the most to lose from a given threat or potential threat to be the ones most concerned about it. In this discussion, for whatever reason, that appears not to be the case.

I do suspect that those closest to the events in this case may have been following the situation more closely for a longer time than some others in the discussion, and that this may have something to do with the attitudes displayed, but that's only conjecture.

Slice it up as you like, it still is a suggestion that propinquity makes for better judgment, a poor argument in this case.

You may persist in saying there is no threat, but their perception of threat is more important than our ever so impartial assessment of threat, and they perceive a threat, justifiable or not. We do maintain significant military forces in Korea, Japan, and Okinawa, and along their key commercial arteries in the Middle East... would we feel threatened if they had forces in similar proximity to our mainland and our vital commercial routes?

The US maintains an enormous Navy in the face of no threat. The Russians, British, French, Italians maintain significant navies in the face of no threat. Actual or aspiring major powers with extensive maritime trade maintain navies, threat or no threat. Been that way for centuries, why would it change now?

I persist in saying there is no threat to peacetime Chinese maritime trade posed by the USN because there is not a threat. None. The Chinese economy has not been hampered in the slightest by their having had a small navy in the past. Not a bit. But now you say they see threat. If that is so, they are wrong and their buildup of a big navy in the face of no threat is dangerous to all. It has been mentioned before that it is similar to the Germans building up a big navy before WW I in the face of no threat. That did not work out well for the world.

The various countries you name do indeed have small navies. And they are small in relation to the world. And except perhaps for the Russian navy which I know little about, none of those navies are built to challenge the USN. Not one, nor the Indian navy nor the Japanese. But the Red Chinese navy is. Why?

As I said many posts before, the buildup of forces wouldn't be all that worrying except it is combined with provocative actions and belligerent talk. That worries me.

And as I also said many post before, the USN grows and contracts depending upon the threat. Wars, cold & hot, it grows. Peace, greater and less, it shrinks. Plus we have relationships and responsibilities that go back generations. Plus we took over from the RN in keeping open the worlds sea lanes, including those to mainland China. All that means we need a few more ships than the other guys.

The Red Chinese are building big fleet in peace. That fleet is structured to fight the USN. They talk fight a lot and they keep bumping into other people's boats. It may not worry you but it does me.