Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
It does indicate that those who are affected and those who live as expatriates, think differently.

This vindicates what I have been stating, ad infinitum, that one has to be a citizen and native born to realise what is a threat and what is not, to their country.

Those who are citizens seem to feel that China is a threat.

I reckon they should know better!
Balikatan is an annual event that goes back decades; they typically focus primarily on CT, COIN, and disaster response. This exercise is certainly not some sort of response to the recent confrontation; it was planned and the dates publicly announced months ago.

As far as the citizens go, there's a wide range of opinion on both China and the US, as there is on most issues. Some feel threatened by China, some by the US, some by both. Some want to get rid of the US military presence and end the exercises, some want to expand them. Many (I'd guessed most, but that's not based on any scientific survey) are not much concerned with either and are more focused on domestic affairs.

Certainly many Filipinos are concerned to varying degrees over China, but these annual exercises are in no way evidence that "the Filipinos" collectively are responding to "the China threat".

The Philippine left is rabidly opposed to the exercises (has been for many years) because they see it as an attempt to build the Philippine military's capacity to fight the NPA.

After a general downgrade following the removal of the bases (exercises still happened, but less frequently and on a much smaller scale), the US was able to build more of a presence, not because Filipinos feared China, but because they wanted US help in suppressing the Muslim rebellions in the south. That was the lever that opened the door to US troops moving in and to larger exercises; there was very little talk of China in those days.

Hard to put these events in context if you don't know the context.

The US presence and the exercises do not appear to be deterring the Chinese from making probes... in fact, as I said in a previous post, it's possible (though not certain) that the Chinese deliberately timed the incursion to coincide with the exercise.