No, that is not completely correct. Afghanistan is not a crossroads for global commerce, but it is a crossroad for regional commerce. It is and will be that until you can dock a container ship in Tashkent. If you want to get something from Karachi to the Stans or vice versa, you have to mostly go through Afghanistan.
When you say a buffer works best when it is a bit of a stew of influence from surrounding parties, that seems like an excellent argument for frustrating the Pak Army/ISI's plans for making Afghanistan a vassal state, making sure the Northern Alliance retains influence and getting the Indians in, rather than keeping them out.
That is the fallacy of the false alternative. What you are saying is Afghanistan will make trouble in Pakistan or the Pak Army/ISI will make trouble in Afghanistan. I don't buy that at all.
Then once you establish the false alternative, you recommend (I think) we back the Pak Army/ISI because that is the way the world is naturally ordered. That choice is to further the aims of people who actively kill Americans. That is not a good choice.
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