COIN case: LRA

[JMA]

This could only happen in America...

Joseph Kony 2012: filmmaker Jason Russell arrested on suspicion of masturbating in public

... Hollywood release of 'Kony2012 - The Meltdown' early next year?

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by carl

It is damned interesting all those you tube views and I wonder what it portends for the future.

Very little, I would cynically guess. Most of those who viewed have probably moved on by now to the next viral sensation. Clicking "like" or "share" requires little effort and is hardly an indicator of commitment.

It's also not at all certain where any of this attention is meant to lead. If the video had come out before Obama had sent men and money to the area, I could have seen the point. It seems like an effort to pressure the US government to do what they're already doing.

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

A well written article...

To some extent, but when I see items like this:

begin by developing a comprehensive approach that prioritises civilian protection from abductions, political, security humanitarian, development and governance efforts. It would start with ensuring civilian protection in tandem with political dialogue involving regional governments to address, for example, the political and military rivalries driving the conflict.

it's hard not to see "getting Kony isn't enough, you have to send lots of money and "fix Africa" and send lots more money and then send..."

It is of course true that getting Kony will not solve or end the problems of Central Africa. What needs to be pointed out to many who remind us of this is that while getting Kony isn't the final solution, it is a reasonable and achievable goal for an outside power. Fixing Uganda, or fixing Central Africa, are not reasonable or achievable goals for an outside power and it would be silly for the US or any other foreign power to take them on.

[Bill Moore]

I thought the recommendations in the article were unrealistic. First off the author dismisses the vast size of the geographical region he wants security forces to provide protection to, and apparently believes that recommending inept African governments to expand their outstanding government services to this large expanse is feasible. While there may not be a military solution to Central Africa's many woes, there certainly can be a military solution to finding and killing Kony. As others have mentioned this may send a message to other thugs in the region, but regardless it will be justice.

In summary, a military solution can remove Kony, but it can't solve all of Central Africa's woes.

[M-A Lagrange]

I believe were getting lost here.
The Kony2012 video was interresting for the only purpose of flaging the issue.
Solutions in that video and in many articles are just innacurate, out of context and unrealistic. Regime change in Uganda will not stop Kony! Neither will the construction of schools or development of agriculture in North Uganda.

Mixing Kony and the actual prolems Uganda is facing, especially the post Museveni regime, is just missing the target by several univers.
The LRA has become a regional problem in 2008 as from 2006 to 2008 unsucessful peace talk took place in the trail of the 2005 South Sudan peace agreement. Before, Kony went from anti Museveni rebellion with popular support to crazy guy leading a bunch of psychopath terrorising the very same population who was supporting him. Why? Because he got defeated by UPDF.

Now, opposition is very loud in northern Uganda but for very different reasons. Mainly the grip of Museveni familly and friends over politic and economy. Solving the Karamajo and the gold mining issues will not affect Kony, never had and never will. Solving the Acholy land issues will not affect Kony, never had and never will.

Kony and Dominique and few others are just good to be sent to the ICC if caugh alive. That's all. Issues about Uganda and its necessity to find a way to ensure stable passation from Museveni dictarial regime to a democratic regime are completely different from LRA and Kony. The fact that Museveni has a long known strategy of legitimating his position by pointing out the existence of various rebel groups is well known, analysed and can be discuss in another threat (there is at least 1 on Uganda.)

LRA can be assimilated to pirats according to international laws. They have a warrant of arrest issued by ICC. Now the realquestion is not will the US catch Kony but rather why is Uganda asking for US help in that mission which should or could have been ended ages ago. (Specially when UN transported LRA and Kony from South Sudan to Garamba parc in DRC. A stop by The Hague could have been a good idea. But requested b@ll$ from the UN...)

[Fuchs]

This stuff can only happen after such a viral video success...

This reminds me a bit of some satirist's critique of the computer chair heroes who got agitated a lot about something they have only 40 minutes worth of information about...
(I am a computer chair hero nowadays as well, but I get agitated about things I knew about for a decade or more! )


edit: Just one more

Interestingly (coincidentally), it's not 100% baseless...

[davidbfpo]

A marvellous headline, just what it means in reality we shall see and the report starts with:

A military force set up by the African Union to hunt down fugitive Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony is being launched in South Sudan. The AU says the 5,000-strong force will exist for as long as it takes to capture or kill Mr Kony.

Later:

The AU force will have a Ugandan commander and comprise troops from Uganda, South Sudan, Central African Republic and Congo - all countries in which the LRA has operated. It is based in Yambio, in the west of South Sudan, near the border with the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17498382

If it was five hundred soldiers then I'd not be so wary. Do I hear the contributors thinking US$ will be forthcoming after the Kony video?

[carl]

The first thing I thought of is who is paying for those 5,000 troops.

The second thing I thought of was a joint force with Congolese troops mixed in; that should be interesting.

[M-A Lagrange]

Originally Posted by carl

The first thing I thought of is who is paying for those 5,000 troops.

The second thing I thought of was a joint force with Congolese troops mixed in; that should be interesting.

I can reassure you very quickly: it will not be the troops providers who will pay. So that's gonna be your taxes and mines...

And how the SPLA melt will be interresting to, just how much FACA will show how capabe they are.
Anyways, well played for Uganda, they have officially an operational base in South Sudan now. They just need to purchase Juba and South Sudan will be theirs.

[M-A Lagrange]

Apparently, it's the US who will pay:
U.S. Support to Regional Efforts To Counter the Lord's Resistance Army

Fact Sheet
Office of the Spokesperson
Washington, DC

March 23, 2012

The United States’ comprehensive, multi-year strategy seeks to help the Governments of Uganda, CAR, the DRC, and South Sudan as well as the African Union and United Nations to mitigate and end the threat posed to civilians and regional stability by the LRA. The strategy outlines four key objectives for U.S. support: (1) the increased protection of civilians, (2) the apprehension or removal of Joseph Kony and senior LRA commanders from the battlefield, (3) the promotion of defections and support of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of remaining LRA fighters, and (4) the provision of continued humanitarian relief to affected communities.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/03/186732.htm

[Dayuhan]

If Kony on the loose brings American aid, where's the incentive to catch him?

[M-A Lagrange]

Originally Posted by Dayuhan

If Kony on the loose brings American aid, where's the incentive to catch him?

Hey Dayuhan,

You're actually asking the only interresting question that no one wants to answer.
And most probably responding to the question: why is UPDF uncapable to catch the man...

[JMA]

Ugandan army says Sudan is backing Joseph Kony's LRA

Surprise, surprise, who would have guessed.

[M-A Lagrange]

Hello JMA,

Apparently it is true. But Museveni is coming back also with ADF, another Sudan funded group.
Keep in mind this is taking place in a time where both Sudan are on an undeclared war. And also Museveni is very much criticized by Muslim community in his country.

[davidbfpo]

A short BBC News report:

A senior commander in the rebel Lord's Resistance Army has been captured by the Ugandan army, a spokesman has said. Caesar Achellam was seized on Saturday following a struggle between Ugandan soldiers and a group of 30 rebels. The commander, whom Ugandan officials say is a top rebel military strategist, was captured in the Central African Republic, one of several nations where the Ugandan-led LRA operates.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18051522

Note a local reporter says the prisoner was with one, or two wives and eight children.

[carl]

The report said Kony is being forced to move almost every other day. Perhaps an actual end is near.

[M-A Lagrange]

A report evaluating the US military effort to end LRA.

I did not read the entire report but what I read was interresting, even if I do not agree with all what is said. (Political context might sometimes be too lightly understood or analysed for me)
Out of the electoral advocacy game, it is good that someone follows that up closely.

MOMENT OF TRUTH
The potential and limits of the US
military’s counter-LRA deployment
https://salsa.democracyinaction.org/...une%202012.pdf

[davidbfpo]

Skimming through the cited report I noted on pg.10:

The 391st battalion of the Congolese military, which received extensive training by the US military and is now deployed to northern Congo, continues to face logistical constraints and has engaged little with LRA forces. MONUSCO, despite instability in eastern Congo, has opened up new bases in northern Congo’s Bas Uele region and utilized the Guatemalan Special Forces unit (GUASFOR) and other units to set up temporary bases in towns hit hardest by LRA activity

On pg.14 and one wonders which lawyers did imposed this condition:

US advisers are also helping to streamline US logistical support to Uganda’s counterLRA operations, which amounts to approximately $1.5 million a month for supplies and helicopter support provided through third-party contractors. The contracts for this support stipulate that the helicopters (US-contracted MI-8 helicopters) overnight at the Ugandan military base in Nzara, South Sudan, even though they are most needed at the Ugandan military’s current forward operating bases in Obo and Djemah, CAR. Consquently, the helicopters must fly hundreds of extra miles each day from Nzara to Djemah and Obo, wasting fuel and flight hours and reducing the effectiveness of Ugandan military tracking teams operating there.....US officials have restricted the advisers’ travel radius to within several miles of the towns where they are deployed.

...a $35 million authorization in the FY2012 defense authorizations act for US
support to military forces operating against the LRA. However, six months after the authorization bill was passed, bureaucratic hurdles within the Department of Defense have prevented any of the authorized funds from being put to use.

[M-A Lagrange]

Joseph Kony's LRA blamed for uranium plant attack
Rebel leader Joseph Kony's Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) was responsible for an attack last weekend...

Rebel leader Joseph Kony's Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) was responsible for an attack last weekend on a uranium plant in the Central African Republic, a military source said Tuesday.
"The Ugandan rebels of the LRA... were recognised by residents, many of whom fled to hide in the Catholic church or in the bush" during Sunday's attack on a plant operated by French nuclear giant Areva near a uranium mine in the country's south-east, the source said on condition of anonymity.
"After occupying the site, the rebels then looted the premises, carrying off portable computers, food -- notably bags of flour, boxes of sugar, etc.
"They also destroyed office computers before retreating Monday afternoon."
Areva has said the attack's sole objective appeared to be looting. There were no reports of injuries or stolen uranium -- though a villager was killed shortly before the attack began, according to a military source.

http://www.starafrica.com/fr/actuali...la-239777.html

Let say we are lucky Kony is an idiot.

[J Wolfsberger]

Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange

Let say we are lucky Kony is an idiot.

I think you're underestimating the damage idiots can cause.

[M-A Lagrange]

According to news released by DRC press, Dominique Ongwen has been killed on 27 august 2012 in a firefight with UPDF in CAR.

Let's hope this is true.


Traque contre les hommes de Joseph Kony, le n°3 de la LRA tué sur le territoire centrafricain http://www.lobservateur.cd/index.php...ites&Itemid=78
(A link, unfortunately in french, on Dominique Ongwen death.)