Combat Power, Conflict Resolution, and US Economy

[AmericanPride]

I don't see how you can determine "the real security problem" without assessing current capacity relative to current threat. Current capacity relative to 1973 capacity is irrelevant, the Cold War is over and the threat environment has changed. Once you decide that the analysis must be "independent of which threats exist" the analysis begins to float off on thin air, because any analysis of security is fundamentally dependent on which threats exist.

As I have repeatedly stated, this has nothing to do with the first part of my analysis which, I stress again, is about measuring US military capacity. Yes, it is a major issue if US purchasing power is decreasing. In order to maintain the same level of military power, the US must increasingly spend more money. This decline is not related to the existence of other security threats or the development of other national military forces. The fact that other national powers may represent future threats only highlights the underlying economic problems that are reducing US military capacity. In other words, it is possible that US military is reducing relative both to US economic capacity and to foreign national threats (the former is what I have been discussing, the latter I have not looked at).

I don't think anyone doubts that military power ultimately stems from economic power, and that as the US loses absolute economic superiority (that doesn't necessarily mean US decline, as others can also rise) it will necessarily lose absolute military superiority. That doesn't necessarily have unmanageable security implications, it just means we have to learn to manage the new security environment. Is absolute superiority to everyone, everywhere, all the time essential to our security?

You mean relative "economic superiority" since US GDP growth is outpacing the growth of the DoD budget. Nor has my analysis even addressed this problem yet, which, again, I said I would investigate when I explore conflict resolution. Right now, the data indicates that US purchasing power is decreasing. This decrease is not dependent on the existence of any threat.

Allow me to say that your choice of 'believable' sources is, er, interesting and they certainly generally are supportive of your views

My sources in this thread have been:
- General Dempsey's speech
- DNI Clapper's congressional testimony
- Frank Spinney's congressional testimony
- OPM's federal employment statistics
- Naval History and Heritage Command (USN inventory)
- Arsenal of Airpower: USAF Inventory
- FY2010 DoD Green Book on national defense estimates
- World Bank

These are all primary sources so I doubt the substance of your objections about my sources. My conclusions are based on the numbers provided by these sources.