China's Emergence as a Superpower

[davidbfpo]

Cheers Robert H. who in his SWJ Blog column has commented upon 'Has the Air Force already lost the battle for Taiwan?':http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/thi...ext-korean-war

He cites a RAND study:

A recent detailed study concludes that the Chinese air force will badly outgun the U.S. Air Force in the skies over Taiwan and that the only hope for preventing Chinese air superiority over the island during a conflict is through the threat of heavy bombardment of the mainland, with all of the danger that implies. The study also demonstrates that the Air Force and Navy lack some of the proper tools for fighting in the Pacific's vast expanses.

Link:http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD267.html

[Firn]

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

Dayuhan,
How would the world economy and international banking react to Chinese individual private investors appearing en masse? Let alone the Chinese state's reaction to a perceived need for the free flow of information.

The already existent capital controls make it hard for private investors to shift capital outside of China. If there is heavy investment by Chinese investors it might be facilitated by the large amount of ethnic Chinese using various ways and channels to allow for some outflow of capital. A Chinese company buying a Western one won't have, of course, generally that kind of problem.

The control of capital by the state is of course connected with the policy of the state to acquire large amounts of foreign currency (or equivalents) to keep the Renminbi 'artificially' low thus facilitating the export So this control regime is very unlikey to change.

An if such a massive bubble bursts the party will try everything to keep the money inside China, and will use monetary and fiscal policies as well as other tools like regulation changes to avoid low growth, a recession or even worse. [That they allowed this sector to run as red hot as it is, shows unsurprisingly that even the wise Chinese technocratic communists can make errors just as we simple democratic Westerners did and do. ]

All that makes it unlikey that we will see private Chinese investors appearing on masse on the international markets.

[Ray]

A prominent Chinese military commander has lambasted the Chinese political system in a recent interview and predicted a political transformation toward democracy within the next ten years.
Lieutenant General Liu Yazhou is the Political Commissar of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) University for National Defense. He is also the son-in-law of former Chinese President, Li Xiannian. His public statements make him the first senior active-duty military officer to publicly criticize the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) policies without backlash from the regime.

In a recent interview with Hong Kong’s Phoenix Weekly, Liu said, “A system that does not allow its citizens to breathe freely, nor to maximally unleash their creativity, nor puts those who can best represent the people in leadership positions, is doomed.”
He further pointed out that the former Soviet Union also used to stress [social] stability above all else and regarded it as the ultimate goal.

“Stressing stability as a principle of overriding importance, and moneymaking as the only way to settle everything, will only lead to contradictions being aggravated, and everything will come against you.”

Liu also predicted that a political transformation from authoritarianism to democracy will inevitably take place within ten years.

Expressing reprehension for the “money diplomacy” and “economic powerhouse” concepts embraced by the CCP, Liu said “having more money does not mean having more soft power.”

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/chin...ccp-41543.html

[davidbfpo]

Ray,

A good catch, with staggering content. For a political commissar to say that openly is amazing. One wonders whether he is alone or the views reflect a debate with the PLA or CCP.

[tequila]

That occurred in 2010.

[Bill Moore]

“Stressing stability as a principle of overriding importance, and moneymaking as the only way to settle everything, will only lead to contradictions being aggravated, and everything will come against you.”

Great find Ray, and the excerpt about sounds a whole lot like our COIN doctrine. Is our doctrine based on communist principles and doomed to fail?

[davidbfpo]

A NDU / INSS report 'Buy, Build, or Steal: China’s Quest for Advanced Military Aviation Technologies' that maybe of interest (Note I've not read it):http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/pdf/chi...pectives-4.pdf

The Executive Summary concludes:

two important conclusions. First, the Chinese military aviation industry will have to rely primarily on indigenous development of advanced “single-use” military aviation technologies in the future. The Chinese government is pursuing a range of “indigenous innovation” and technology development programs, but mastering advanced technologies becomes more difficult and expensive as a country moves closer to the technology frontier. This leads to a second, related conclusion: China will likely rely more heavily on espionage to acquire those critical military aviation technologies it cannot acquire legitimately from foreign suppliers or develop on its own.

[Ray]

Commentary: Constructive U.S. role in Asia-Pacific welcome, but not warmongering

Legitimate interests of the United States, the world's biggest power, in the Asia-Pacific region are generally respected by other countries.

The U.S. role, if fulfilled with a positive attitude and free from a Cold War-style zero-sum mentality, will not only be conducive to regional stability and prosperity, but be good for China, which needs a peaceful environment to continue its economic development.

However, while boosting its military presence in the Asia-Pacific, the United States should abstain from flexing its muscles, as this won't help solve regional disputes.

If the United States indiscreetly applies militarism in the region, it will be like a bull in a china shop, and endanger peace instead of enhancing regional stability.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/in..._131346348.htm

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Lowy Institute, in Australia, for highlighting a speech by Hilary Clinton and opens with:

The speech Hillary Clinton gave in Washington last week to mark the 40th anniversary of Nixon's visit to China didn't get much attention. Other than Linda Jakobson's short post, on which more below, I've seen no reference to it here in Australia or in US media.

...But the speech deserves careful attention, because some of what it says about the US-China relationship is very different from what President Obama said here in Canberra last November...

..More importantly, she several times said that Asia will need a new order which will be very different from the status quo, plainly implying that America's role will therefore be different too.

Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...on-moment.aspx

[AdamG]

Coup in China?

The mutiny was supposedly led by a leftist faction inside the Politburo headed by Zhou Yongkang, the chief of China’s massive internal security apparatus, and the recently ousted leadership contender Bo Xilai.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle2376711/

[Ray]

India,South Korea draw close; step up business, military ties
http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsde...-Roundup-.html

Strategic Posture Review: Japan

Japan and India penned a joint security declaration in October 2008 and have developed dialogue channels focused mainly on maritime security: safety, freedom of navigation and anti-piracy activities. The bilateral agenda also emphasizes joint exercises, and in 2009 the Indian navy invited Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) to participate in the Malabar Exercises with the U.S. Navy. A bilateral exercise between the Indian navy and the MSDF is scheduled to take place in 2012. Japan and India signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement that entered into force in August 2011, and Japan provides substantial development aid for projects such as the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor.

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/a...e-review-japan

[jmm99]

The Indians (Sanskrit type) are making my little map become more real.

Cooperation in Friendship.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

A long FP Blog article and too tired to read all six pages, but I noted the well connected General Liu is cited, so will read fully tomorrow.

It starts with:

In many fields of international competition, China is less sanguine about its abilities than outsiders. Chinese leaders often remind Westerners that China is a developing country, with hundreds of millions of people living in poverty, an unbalanced economy, and high social tensions. What should most worry Beijing, and provide some comfort to those who fear Chinese military expansionism, is the state of corruption in the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...ng_from_within

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Ray

This would indeed indicate that there are internal problems within China as some claimed.

Rotting From Within
Investigating the massive corruption of the Chinese military.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...thin?page=full


How far this would be correct, one wonders.

Corruption is rampant at every level in China; it's by no means confined to the military. It's getting a lot of attention right now due to the Bo Xilai scandal, but it's been well known for a long time.

[Firn]

I recently watched this docu, which I found very interesting even though I knew much of the narrative. It strongly reminds me of the saying that the only thing worse than being exploited by capitalism is not be to be exploited by it. Some gains in efficiency and the resulting rise in wealth were certainly amazing, the fruits of a giving people the chance to better their status quo on their merits. Of course the spirit of those who just took the chance, like the people of Xiao Gang was quite amazing and drive by dire need. That they signed a legal pact among each other to support the those and their families who might get imprisoned or killed by the state carries some sad irony with it. (Such reactions are of course not unique, but rather common if not so overt)

Sustaining China's Economic Growth was eye-opening for me, especially concerning the implication of cultural differences, the (lack) of a good financial system and the lack of a social security net on things like the MPC or MPS (marginal prop. to consume/save) and the way to invest.

[Dayuhan]

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...gs_it_3-042612

[slapout9]

Link to article by F.William Engdahl about the high speed train line being built from China all the way to the English Channel and how this help China's prosperity into the next century.

http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.ne...y%20Europe.pdf

[Ray]

It belongs to China

The Scarborough Shoal does belong to China which discovered it and drew it in a map as early as 1279 during the Yuan Dynasty.

http://manilastandardtoday.com/2012/...ongs-to-china/

China map lays claim to Americas

A map due to be unveiled in Beijing and London next week may lend weight to a theory a Chinese admiral discovered America before Christopher Columbus.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl...9236/img/1.jpg

Therefore, the world belongs to China!

[Fuchs]

Originally Posted by Dayuhan

Corruption is rampant at every level in China; it's by no means confined to the military. It's getting a lot of attention right now due to the Bo Xilai scandal, but it's been well known for a long time.

Don't they establish a tradition of annual quasi-summary executions of low and middle level party officials and bureaucrats for corruption? IIRC something like that has been going on for years.

China map lays claim to Americas

A map due to be unveiled in Beijing and London next week may lend weight to a theory a Chinese admiral discovered America before Christopher Columbus.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl...9236/img/1.jpg

This is certainly of great interest for sociologists, psychologists and political scientists.

Such a fake can easily be disproved with a simple C14 analysis, and much of the map is simply not believable for a critically thinking modern (wo)man. Whom are they trying to fool and why don't they get that phony BS is a rather poor representative for a great country? It's as if Manhattan was built by Hollywood fake building producers, all Potemkim-style fakes.

On top of that, jingoism can be really harmful to a country that needs to address major domestic issues.

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Fuchs

Don't they establish a tradition of annual quasi-summary executions of low and middle level party officials and bureaucrats for corruption? IIRC something like that has been going on for years.

They do, but it's less about corruption than about falling out of favor or stepping on the wrong toes. Corruption is always a convenient excuse to get rid of someone, especially since the accusation is always true, since practically everyone in government is corrupt. It's well known on the street and the level of cynicism is proportionally high.