The US & others working with Pakistan

[Ray]

Pak 'terrorism accountability' bill introduced in US Congress

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report...ngress_1687800

[omarali50]

so says David Ignatius: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...fUU_story.html

My comments at http://www.brownpundits.com/david-ig...ing-to-get-it/

[carl]

Omar this was a comment by one JCW at Ricks' Best Defense about Mr. Ignatius' article.

"Sad to say that in my modest moments of acquaintance with the situation (off and on, 1978-88) I never met a single high-ranking government official who couldn't be conned by having the opportunity to watch the Khyber Rifles dance and sign the officers mess guest book alongside Arthur and Douglas McArthur, and many, many other famous folks (and one scruffy Army Major)."

He is referring to American government officials. That is about what you have always been saying the Pak Army/ISI does and what they still do. It still works.

(Curse you Rudyard Kipling and Tyrone Power for setting up the gullible Yanks.)

[omarali50]

News that strategic ally Pakistan may not make up with the US leads Nitin Pai to speculate about what next http://acorn.nationalinterest.in/201...uzkashi-begin/

My comments: http://www.brownpundits.com/afpak-fak-ap/

This seems a risky prediction when so many people are predicting a breakdown, but I still think some sort of ugly unhappy compromise is likely.

[J Wolfsberger]

Meanwhile, Pakistani doctor who helped US in bin Laden raid sentenced to prison

I'm sure this will give a powerful boost to our intelligence efforts in the region.

I wonder how they got his name?

Moderator's Note

Post copied to the thread on the effect of OBL's demise, so please comment there:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=13244&page=4

[VCheng]

These excerpts from an editorial in Dawn indicate that USA will likely find it difficult to move forward in its negotiations with Pakistan:

from: http://dawn.com/2012/05/23/back-in-the-fold/

..........With the focus in Chicago on the withdrawal phase in Afghanistan and the timeline for the reopening of the supply route through Pakistan, Pakistani officials somehow saw fit to once again raise the issue of an apology over Salala. Was this pandering to a domestic audience in Pakistan, a way of shoring up the fight for more money for utilisation of the supply route or a genuine demand by Pakistan reflecting the inflexibility of some inside, and close to, the security establishment?

As for the haggling over the price of the supply route, inexplicable as it seems but the Pakistani position really does seem to be ultimately about money — just a few hundred million dollars a year. ..........................But even if Pakistan does succeed in exponentially increasing the money flowing to the national exchequer for use of the supply route, is that worth the price Pakistan will likely pay in terms of lost goodwill and sympathy? What appears to be happening in Pakistan is a paralysis of sorts: the security establishment and the political government seem too afraid to break from positions they publicly took without necessarily thinking them through. .............

[omarali50]

From the horse's mouth: http://tribune.com.pk/story/383733/t...-did-not-miss/

[J Wolfsberger]

Originally Posted by omarali50

From the horse's mouth: http://tribune.com.pk/story/383733/t...-did-not-miss/

To paraphrase a South African editor from years ago, there is nothing more ridiculous than an American pundit in search of a quick fix to someone else's problems.

[omarali50]

This article may clear the "fog of war" a little: http://www.pakistankakhudahafiz.com/...ut-fighting-4/

[carl]

Omar:

I couldn't get through that article after the author described the various muj groups fighting the Soviets as a "brilliant war machine."

[VCheng]

For all the stereotypical Pakistani proclamations that Americans are fat, lazy and stupid, I find it quite interesting that that Pakistan still does not realize the game is rigged, due to the vast asymmetry, such that heads USA wins, and tails Pakistan loses. The sooner Pakistan realizes that, the less painful the change in course will be, but change its course it must, at one point or another.

The rather clever "damned if you do, damned if you don't" (The DIYD^2) policy as I see it:

Insist on an apology for Salala = Paint your foreign policy into a corner
Forego an apology for Salala = destroy morale and lose prestige

Don't do an operation in NWA = harboring terrorists
Do an operation in NWA = get drawn into a bloody and costly conflict on own territory

OBL hidden by ISI = partners in 9/11
OBL not hidden by ISI = incompetent fools

Dr. Afridi sentenced for treason = prosecuting a hero who help kill OBL with the attendant fallout
Dr. Afridi let go = live with a growing number of spies and traitors working with impunity on own soil, and loss of domestic prestige

Close supply routes = change from ally to adversary
Open supply routes = be seen as being for sale

And I could go on, but one can get an idea that USA may not be as foolish as Pakistanis would like to think.

[ganulv]

Originally Posted by VCheng

OBL hidden by ISI = partners in 9/11
OBL not hidden by ISI = incompetent fools

My guess is that one day someone somewhere within the Pakistani government had an appointment with an American official who informed him that he knew that bin Laden was in Abbottabad and that both of them knew that there was only one non-negotiable in the U.S./Pakistan relationship. There was an agreement that blind eyes would be turned on 01 May 2011 to a raid that could be written off as a drone strike if need be. Big Problem #1: The execution was such that the drone strike narrative became untenable and Much Bigger Problem #2: The POTUS made a media event out of the killing without consulting anyone in Pakistan beforehand. Now, I doubt any of us will ever know the real story, but if the above were to be true how would that color the actions of the Pakistani government over the course of the past year?

Originally Posted by VCheng

For all the stereotypical Pakistani proclamations that Americans are fat, lazy and stupid, I find it quite interesting that that Pakistan still does not realize the game is rigged, due to the vast asymmetry, such that heads USA wins, and tails Pakistan loses. The sooner Pakistan realizes that, the less painful the change in course will be, but change its course it must, at one point or another.

So your advice is for the Pakistani government to be the State Department’s bitch?

[carl]

Ganulv:

That is a very good guess. The only part I think different is that it was never meant to be a drone strike. It was meant to be what it turned out to be from the beginning and the Pak Army/ISI knew it.

[ganulv]

Originally Posted by carl

Ganulv:

That is a very good guess. The only part I think different is that it was never meant to be a drone strike. It was meant to be what it turned out to be from the beginning and the Pak Army/ISI knew it.

Nor I, and I also think the Pakistanis knew so. I just think the cover story, if one was needed, was that it had been a drone strike. That would have given the Pakistanis plausible deniability regarding foreknowledge. I don’t know if there was any contingency plan for how to deal with something like the helicopter crash, but the point was moot after the White House announced the national day of celebration.

[omarali50]

How SHOULD the White house have spun it?

[carl]

Omar: They did pretty good with what they had. The Pak Army/ISI and us both maintained the fiction and the media in both countries went along with it. Whether that is because the media is too dopey to figure out the obvious or because they are covering for the govs, who knows? Neither gov could tell the truth of the matter, it would have embarrassed the powerful and important.

[Ray]

If Pak knew of the OBL strike, how come they have jailed the doctor who gave the info for treason?

[carl]

Helps keep the fiction alive. Scapegoating. Emotional need to blame it on betrayal. Pak Army/ISI habit of perfidy no matter the circumstance. Take your pick. They all fit.

[ganulv]

Originally Posted by Ray

If Pak knew of the OBL strike, how come they have jailed the doctor who gave the info for treason?

If anyone ever deserved the Prometheus treatment more than Prometheus did it’s the good doctor. The fact that an MD and the best and brightest in the U.S. Intelligence Community were of the mind that al-Qaeda is a greater threat than Hep B is a case study in dysgenics.

I take Dr. Afridi’s trial and conviction as evidence that he was not in the employ of the ISI under the assumption that they would never have risked him spilling the beans on them in so public a forum. And if he was not working for some element of his country’s government his and Bradley Manning’s defenders are on the same footing as far as I am concerned. Anyone trying to understand cognitive dissonance need look no further that the government that could voice outrage over the one while detaining the other.

[carl]

I would not be surprised if Dr. Afridi was to serve only a few months and then some pretext was found to release him and get him to the US. From the CIA point of view that is a must because all the other potential Dr. Afridis in the world are watching.