South China Sea and China

[Ray]

Philippines Appeals for U.S. Help in Building Armed Forces
http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...g-Armed-Forces

[Dayuhan]

Philippines, US agree to build up PH defenses

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/353...up-ph-defenses

US neutral in Scarborough standoff but will help upgrade Philippine Navy

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/354...hilippine-navy

Lawmakers lament US ‘hands-off’ position

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/354...80%99-position

Despite all the talk, the US isn't actually offering anything beyond sale of a second retired Coast Guard cutter, which was already agreed on months ago. Nothing really new anywhere in the statements; essentially it's just a restatement of the status quo ante.

There were discussions some time back between the Philippines and Italy over purchase of frigates and aircraft, I wonder if that will be revived. Some Philippine legislators were apparently hoping that a flap with China would persuade the US to give them a Navy and an Air Force, either free or on the cheap, and that's clearly not about to happen.

[Dayuhan]

ICG report on China and the SCS...

http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/F...hina-sea-i.pdf

Material starting on page 29 is particularly relevant to this discussion.

[Ray]

US submarine surfaces in Subic

MANILA, Philippines - One of the most modern submarines in the United States Navy surfaced last Sunday in Subic Bay in Zambales where it is currently deployed to ensure freedom of navigation in the Western Pacific.

The arrival of the Virginia-class fast attack submarine USS North Carolina (SSN-777) came as the Philippines is embroiled in a standoff with China for more than a month now in Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal, 124 nautical miles from mainland Zambales....

Unlike the visits of other US vessels in the country, the docking of USS Carolina at Subic bolstered earlier speculations that the US government, while openly declaring that it will not interfere in any territorial dispute in the region, is also closely watching the prevailing standoff between the Philippines and China over ownership of Bajo de Masinloc or “Karburo” to local fishermen....

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/re...surfaces-subic

[davidbfpo]

The dispute summed up in eighty seconds:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaNVKC-9zlw

[Ray]

Writing out the non-han

Scarborough Shoal, its historical justification is that this rock and surrounding shallow water is mentioned in a Chinese map of the 13th century when China itself was under alien - Mongol - rule. The fact that a vessel from China had visited the shoal and recorded its existence has thus become one basis for its claim. Very similar pieces of history are trotted out to justify claims to other islands visited by ships from China. Likewise, China's assumption of hegemony is often based on the fact that foreign merchant ships had to pay taxes to trade with China.

History, however, shows that Chinese sailors were latecomers to the South China Sea, let alone to onward trade to the Indian Ocean. The seagoing history of the region, at least for the first millennium of the current era, was dominated by the ancestors of today's Indonesians, Malays, Filipinos and (less directly) Vietnamese. Thus, as China's own records reveal, when the 4th century Buddhist pilgrim Fa Hsien, went to Sri Lanka, he travelled from China to Sumatra and then on to Sri Lanka in Malay ships.
....

During this era of sea-going prowess, people from Indonesia were the first colonisers of the world's third largest island, Madagascar, some 4,000 miles away. (The Madagascan language and 50% of its human gene pool are of Malay origin.) This was a thousand years before the much-vaunted voyages of Chinese admiral Zheng He in the 15th century.

Malay seagoing prowess was to be overtaken by south Indians and Arabs, but they remained the premier sea-farers in Southeast Asia until well into the era of European dominance of the region. Indeed, the Malay-speaking Hindu (like much of Southeast Asia at that time) mercantile state of central Vietnam dominated South China Sea trade until the 15th century. The 10th century Arab traveller and geographer al-Masudi made reference to the "Cham Sea", and trade between Champa and Luzon was well established long before the Chinese drew their 13th century map. As Scarborough Shoal not only lies close to the Luzon coast but is on the direct route from Manila bay to the ancient Cham ports of Hoi An and Qui Nhon, it was known to the Malay sailors long ago.

All in all, the Chinese claim to have 'been there first' is like arguing that Europeans got to Australia before its aboriginal inhabitants. But given China's reluctance to acknowledge that Taiwan was Malay terri-tory until the arrival of European conquerors,.....

China itself seems to recognise the flimsy basis of some of its historical claims. In the case of the Scarborough Shoal, it backs up its position by reference to the Treaty of Paris 1898 concluding the Spanish-American war and yielding Spanish sovereignty over the Philippine archipelago to the US. This did not mention the shoal but described a series of straight lines drawn on the map which left the shoal a few miles outside the 116E longitude defined by the treaty.....

China rejects "unequal treaties" imposed by western colonialists, it is remarkable to find it relying on one between two foreign powers conducted without any reference to the inhabitants of the Philippines. Vietnam can equally well claim all the Spratly Islands as inheritor of French claims over them......

Its long-term goal which is not ownership of a few rocks but strategic control of the whole sea, a vital waterway between northeast Asia and the Indian Ocean, the Gulf and Europe. The Scarborough Shoal is not just a petty dispute over some rocks. It is a wake-up call for many countries.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/h...w/13224479.cms

[Ray]

[Dayuhan]

What's even stranger than the Chinese claim, from a geographical perspective, is that Taiwan still claims the Spratlys, and occupies at least one of the islands...

[Dayuhan]

http://www.malaya.com.ph/index.php/n...so-does-aquino

China declares Scarborough fishing ban, and so does Aquino

CHINA and the Philippines are set to enforce fishing bans in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) waters where their ships have been engaged in a tense standoff for a month.

China’s official Xinhua News Agency cited a fisheries official Sunday as saying the annual ban includes waters around Scarborough Shoal which China calls Huangyan island and which the Philippines calls Panatag Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario initially rejected China’s ban but said President Aquino has decided that the Philippines should impose its own ban.

The last line of the article suggests that neither side is being very aggressive:

There were 11 Chinese and four Filipino fishing vessels inside the shoal as of yesterday morning, Sumangan said.

The fishing bans are largely verbiage and an excuse to pull back, as nobody fishes there June-August anyway. The SW monsoon is already blowing and sea conditions will be deteriorating rapidly by June. Shoals, strong wind, rough water and fishing boats are not a great combination.

Huffington Post had this to say...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel...b_1531623.html

Earlier this week, the USS North Carolina -- a Virginia class fast attack submarine -- took Chinese and Philippine authorities alike by surprise after resurfacing in Philippine waters and docking in Subic Bay -- the economic free port zone in the Philippine province of Zambales.

I personally think that a bit overstated, I doubt the USN would sail a sub into a foreign port with no previous coordination with host government.

We probably won't get much information, but it would be interesting to see if the Chinese Naval vessels reportedly operating in the SCS move any closer. The sub's departure might give an opportunity for them to test their ability to observe and track.

[Ray]

It is most surprising that a US sub surfaces and no one raises a hue and cry given that what I learn here on this thread that the Philippines is very chary about US military presence.

Odd to say the least.

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Ray

It is most surprising that a US sub surfaces and no one raises a hue and cry given that what I learn here on this thread that the Philippines is very chary about US military presence.

Odd to say the least.

There were the usual ritual denunciations...

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/me...ubmarine-visit

http://gulfnews.com/news/world/phili...sion-1.1023910

Not a big deal, happens every time.

It would be inaccurate to say that "the Philippines is very chary about US military presence". Some Filipinos are. Some aren't. Some (most, I would say) are more concerned with domestic affairs. As in most countries and as on most issues, there's a fair diversity of opinion.

If you want to judge public perception of threat by protest, you might note that protests against Lady Gaga's recent concert were more vigorous and drew more news coverage than those directed at China or the US. Make of that what you will...

[Ray]

Well, I thought it was being advocated, quite forcefully that the Philippines was very chary about US deployment in the areas of Philippines.

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Ray

Well, I thought it was being advocated, quite forcefully that the Philippines was very chary about US deployment in the areas of Philippines.

It would be silly to ascribe any such opinion to "the Philippines" generically.

There's a small but very vocal minority that opposes any military interaction between the Philippines and the US. (On the other end of the spectrum, there's a small minority that still wants the Philippines to be the 51st state of the US.)

A much larger group is ok with limited interaction (ship visits, exercises, non-permanent deployment) but opposes permanent bases. That group has sufficient influence that permanent basing is generally regarded as an untouchable idea politically.

There are also people who support greater military interaction, including bases.

As in most countries, there's substantial diversity of opinion. I would say that overall there's a sense that the US is not entirely to be trusted, and that close relations with the US carry certain risks. Some think those risks worth taking, others don't.

One refrain that's appearing consistently these days is that the Philippines should not depend on the US as its sole or primary source of military equipment. Look, for example, at the comments on the numerous articles floating around dealing with the recent transfer of another Coast Guard Cutter. There's a lot of irritation over the US decision to remove some armaments (Phalanx CIWS and 2 25mm chain guns) before the turnover, and it's often noted that the US seems reluctant to provide armaments that are competitive even with those of regional peers, let alone China.

[Ray]

I thought you had said and posted many such posts on tis thread and in the other one China Superpwoer indicating that in Philippines they were more or less against the US deployments and military presence and whatever is there is basically for the Moro rebellion. That is IIRC.

The latest post above of your sums up every shade of opinion and thus inidcates that the cat can jump anywhere!

Just one example of one not getting the drift is:

If you actually read the article, and the other coverage on the exercise, you'll see that the line quoted above is just not a very good piece of writing. They're trying to say that China is not the hypothetical target of the exercise. All the public statements on the exercise stress that it has nothing to do with the recent incidents and is not directed at any country.

Of course any military exercise anywhere is intended to send a message to any potential antagonist, but in this case the primary potential antagonists being messaged are the rebel groups and their actual or potential foreign supporters, with China in second place. The Philippine political and military leaders consider the domestic insurgencies to be a greater threat; you can consider that "daft" if you like, but they have reasons. If you keep track of the Philippine media and talk to people you see there's a lot of irritation at the fishing incursions and some concern with conflict over offshore energy reserves, but only a tiny fringe worries about invasion and there's very limited support for major upgrades to military spending. Vietnam spends 2.5% of GDP on defense; the Philippines spends 0.9%. If you want an indication of relative fear and relative priorities, there it is. Money speaks louder than words.

I somehow feel that Philippines is now looking at China (as I have been stating all along) to be Threat # 1.

That apart the ASEAN is not amused with Chinese antics in the SCS.

Asean talks on South China Sea begin

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2...sea-begin.html

Therefore, there is no doubt that China's muscle flexing has got all a bit jumpy and they are downgrading their internal issues in the bargain.

I would like to think that a foreign threat is a greater bugbear than an internal one.

[Ray]

One refrain that's appearing consistently these days is that the Philippines should not depend on the US as its sole or primary source of military equipment. Look, for example, at the comments on the numerous articles floating around dealing with the recent transfer of another Coast Guard Cutter. There's a lot of irritation over the US decision to remove some armaments (Phalanx CIWS and 2 25mm chain guns) before the turnover, and it's often noted that the US seems reluctant to provide armaments that are competitive even with those of regional peers, let alone China.

China sends more ships to disputed shoal

China has deployed more ships to a disputed shoal in the South China Sea amid a tense stand-off with the Philippines, officials and state media said on Wednesday.

As of Monday night, there were five Chinese government vessels -- up from three -- and 16 fishing boats in the area, the Philippine foreign department said.

Manila has lodged a fresh protest with the Chinese embassy over the build-up, department spokesman Raul Hernandez said.

Using the shoal's Philippine name, Hernandez added: "The Philippines, therefore, demands that China's vessels immediately pull out from Bajo de Masinloc and the Philippines' exclusive economic zone."

China's official Xinhua news agency said controls have been "strengthened" in the area and quoted a foreign ministry spokesman as saying it had "about 20 fishing boats" near the disputed Scarborough Shoal, "roughly the same number as in previous years".
http://ph.news.yahoo.com/china-sends...173705696.html

I take it that given this escalation:

1. The numerous article floating around in te Phippines has the option to look a gift horse in the teerh and demand that the teeth are made of Gold!

2. Philippines feels that the Moro rebels are threat #1 and the Chinese just a side show.

3. That Phippines feels that the US is not a dependable ally!

But then, I presume I could be wrong!

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Ray

I thought you had said and posted many such posts on tis thread and in the other one China Superpwoer indicating that in Philippines they were more or less against the US deployments and military presence and whatever is there is basically for the Moro rebellion. That is IIRC.

I don't think you RC. I certainly don't remember saying any such thing. Who is this "they" of whom you speak? The Filipinos? All of 'em?

Certainly there's widespread suspicion of US motives, and general discomfort with having foreign forces around. For some its a major issue, for some there's more of a tradeoff involved. As I said above, permanent basing is a politically toxic issue that nobody is even willing to propose. Deployments short of permanent basing... opinions vary. So far they've been tolerated, though with objections.

US deployments to date have focused primarily on one segment of the Moro rebellion, and not the most important one.

Originally Posted by Ray

I somehow feel that Philippines is now looking at China (as I have been stating all along) to be Threat # 1.

You see what you want to see. Who are you talking about when you say "Philippines is now looking at China"? The government? The populace? Everyone? I think you'd find that perceptions of "threat #1" vary depending on who you talk to. I also think you'd find that a lot more Filipinos would see the corruption and inadequacy of their own government as a greater threat than China.

Originally Posted by Ray

That apart the ASEAN is not amused with Chinese antics in the SCS.

Asean talks on South China Sea begin

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2...sea-begin.html

I wouldn't expect much from ASEAN, beyond a very diplomatic statement. As I've said before, ASEAN could exert considerable economic influence if they chose to, greater than their military influence: combined ASEAN GDP is similar to that of India and growing fast, and they do a lot of business with China. ASEAN working in concert is not so easy to organize; different members have very different priorities.

Originally Posted by Ray

Therefore, there is no doubt that China's muscle flexing has got all a bit jumpy and they are downgrading their internal issues in the bargain.

Who do you see "downgrading their internal issues"?

Originally Posted by Ray

I would like to think that a foreign threat is a greater bugbear than an internal one.

Depends on what the foreign threat is threatening. Look at it from the perspective of the Philippine elite. The Chinese are threatening to push in on fishing grounds and potential energy resources. The Moros want to dismember the country. The NPA want to hang you from the nearest lamp-post. What threat concerns you most?

Originally Posted by Ray

I take it that given this escalation:

Not really that great of an escalation. Chinese and Vietnamese fishing boats frequent that area often, and as stated above the season is ending soon and there will be a pullout. Just making a bit of a point.

Originally Posted by Ray

1. The numerous article floating around in te Phippines has the option to look a gift horse in the teerh and demand that the teeth are made of Gold!

There's a fair bit of that around, yes. Many of those concerned with defense issues (not something most Filipinos are very concerned about) were hoping the US could be maneuvered into supplying higher-order stuff at low prices, or even free. OHP-class frigates and F-16s were on the wish list. What was offered was substantially less, and some people got pikon.

Playing the nationalist card and complaining about foreigners, be they American or Chinese, is also a popular attention-getting stunt among the political class. It's not necessarily an indication of great concern. Many of those who whine the loudest are privately doing business with the same parties they're whining about.

Originally Posted by Ray

2. Philippines feels that the Moro rebels are threat #1 and the Chinese just a side show.

Again, who is "Philippines"? You speak as though the country is a single person with a single opinion. In reality the perception of threat depends on who you're talking to and where. Where I live the Manila government and its armed forces are seen as a more immediate threat than the Chinese.

Originally Posted by Ray

3. That Phippines feels that the US is not a dependable ally!

Again, who is "Philippines"? Certainly many Filipinos wonder about the extent to which they can rely on US help. It is clear, for example, that the US is not going to provide modern or even remotely competitive weaponry, and that the US is not going to take the side of the Philippines in territorial disputes. Whether or not that is dependable depends on what you were expecting in the first place.

[Ray]

My queries are basically since I am getting conflicting signals from your posts.

Given your posts on the issue of China, US and Philippines, the approach taken by you was to rubbish the idea that Philippines was not concerned about China’s aggressive moves in the SCS.

The links to international and Filipino media were appended to indicate the views contrary to yours were also rubbished.

Logically seen, that left you as the sole authority on Philippines and its activities.

It will be appreciated that under that situation it left you the sole expert on Philippines, reinforced by your assertion that as an expat there of long standing, your views were but, for the want of a better expression, the Gospel Truth.

Personally, I would have loved to accept that but for the fact that you tend to change tack and that leaves a wake of confused contradictions.

While indeed you would have the ‘pulse’ of the people, but one wonders how far the international and the Philippines media are not aware of what they write and the veracity of the impression conveyed that you alone are the judge and ‘in the know’.

Further, in your posts, you repeatedly give the impression that China is not a major issue for Philippines. You claim that it was the Moro insurgency that was the primary concern and now you claim, in addition, it is corruption and inadequacy of the govt. To quote you - ( I also think you'd find that a lot more Filipinos would see the corruption and inadequacy of their own government as a greater threat than China.)

If China was not a major issue for Philippines why are they, out of the blue, adding naval vessels to their fleet, albeit old? Or scouting around for foreign fighter jets?



Philippines to Buy Military Jets Amid Sea Dispute With China
The government could buy new training jets for between $400 and $800 million per squadron and upgrade the planes to fighters, Aquino told Bombo Radyo today. The seller would be a “progressive nation” and not the U.S., the Philippines’ main ally, he said. A squadron includes between 16 and 24 jets.
“It may be from Europe, or somewhere nearer,” Aquino told Bombo Radyo. “That’s what the Armed Forces of the Philippines is studying to make it more economical.”
http://chinausfocus.com/u-s-news/phi...te-with-china/



It could not be because of the Moro insurgency since that has been going on for quite sometimes and if it were the Moros, then this addition would have been done much earlier and not now, all of a sudden!

Therefore, given the international media and even the local news reports and the flurry in beefing up of the Philippines Military, it does indicate that, for some reason that you have not enunciated as to why you want to downplay the China issue, that your assumptions that China is not a major threat is not quite in order.

While I concede that you are in situ, but then to believe that the international media and the activities of the Philippine Govt in modernising (if that is the word) its armed forces are rubbish, it would be a bit too stretched for acceptance or belief!

I don't think you RC. I certainly don't remember saying any such thing. Who is this "they" of whom you speak? The Filipinos? All of 'em?

Certainly there's widespread suspicion of US motives, and general discomfort with having foreign forces around. For some its a major issue, for some there's more of a tradeoff involved. As I said above, permanent basing is a politically toxic issue that nobody is even willing to propose. Deployments short of permanent basing... opinions vary. So far they've been tolerated, though with objections.

US deployments to date have focused primarily on one segment of the Moro rebellion, and not the most important one.

I have no idea as to what is ‘RC’. You may not remember, but if you care to go through this thread and the one about China Superpower, you would find having said so, directly and indirectly.

I have also given a quote of what you said in the post that you have replied which give sthe essnce of your contention. Do have a look at that.

No nation would like foreign countries to establish bases on their territory. That is nothing new.

The US, in all probability, based troops against the Moro insurgents, but to believe that they are not prepared for contingencies other than the Moro would be mistaken. US Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, basically to ensure that the sealanes are clear in the Persian Gulf. However, should the need be, they are also geared to take on Iran in a more direct role. Or would they be sitting idle in a confrontation with Iran?

US has based troops in Philippines on a ‘rotational basis’. What does that mean? Semantics for permanent basing.

It is not that the Philippines has tolerated the US forces based there. Philippines has no options. It is either having a benign US or a fire breathing Dragon!

Notwithstanding your assertion, all activities, to include beefing up the military and the media reports, indicate that it is China which is the Number One issue and not the Moros or the corruption or inadequacies.

Unless you could indicate with links to the contrary, your contentions would not be correct even by a slim chance.

You see what you want to see. Who are you talking about when you say "Philippines is now looking at China"? The government? The populace? Everyone? I think you'd find that perceptions of "threat #1" vary depending on who you talk to. I also think you'd find that a lot more Filipinos would see the corruption and inadequacy of their own government as a greater threat than China.

As above.

When I speak of the Philippines, I do mean not only the Govt but the informed (as gleaned from the local media and appended here)

I take it that the Government of Philippines is responsible for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Philippines. Obviously, if they are refurbishing their Military with acquired naval vessels and scouting around for fighter jets, it is obviously not a dog and pony show (to use an Americanism) they are organising!

I would be immensely surprised if the people of Philippines who, as you say are concerned solely with corruption and inadequacies of their Govt and Moros, would sit still and not protest such needless spending on Defence. Their silence proves that they also feel that China is a threat. I am merely going by logic. You have to prove that this logic is wrong!

I wouldn't expect much from ASEAN, beyond a very diplomatic statement. As I've said before, ASEAN could exert considerable economic influence if they chose to, greater than their military influence: combined ASEAN GDP is similar to that of India and growing fast, and they do a lot of business with China. ASEAN working in concert is not so easy to organize; different members have very different priorities.

When a threat looms all close ranks.

The Chinese hegemonic pursuits have not really regaled the ASEAN. They are treading softly, but they are watching with great concern the moves by China. Militarily, they are no match for China. But should China misstep, their united pacific stance would make China lose face and that would be a big blow to China.

Who do you see "downgrading their internal issues"?

I took it that you, being the expert on Philippines, said that Moros were the No 1 threat.

But given the situation between the Philippines and China, and giving the due to your expert opinion that China is no threat, I stated that the Philippines must have downgraded the internal issues and given priority to Chinese activities or else why the brouhaha in the media and sudden US interest?

It was in deference to your expertise even though the events and the news prove otherwise to your expert opinion that I stated ‘downgrading of internal threat’, when it was obvious to any observer that Chinese hegemonic pursuits were getting too close for comfort.

Depends on what the foreign threat is threatening. Look at it from the perspective of the Philippine elite. The Chinese are threatening to push in on fishing grounds and potential energy resources. The Moros want to dismember the country. The NPA want to hang you from the nearest lamp-post. What threat concerns you most?

Good point.

I would feel that not being enslaved or pushed around with negative ramifications by a foreign power (China) would be the first priority, whether one was the elite or the poor beggarman!

Not really that great of an escalation. Chinese and Vietnamese fishing boats frequent that area often, and as stated above the season is ending soon and there will be a pullout. Just making a bit of a point.

Good that you feel it was all a charade!

Rather silly of them to keep everyone on tenterhooks.

[Ray]

There's a fair bit of that around, yes. Many of those concerned with defense issues (not something most Filipinos are very concerned about) were hoping the US could be maneuvered into supplying higher-order stuff at low prices, or even free. OHP-class frigates and F-16s were on the wish list. What was offered was substantially less, and some people got pikon.

Playing the nationalist card and complaining about foreigners, be they American or Chinese, is also a popular attention-getting stunt among the political class. It's not necessarily an indication of great concern. Many of those who whine the loudest are privately doing business with the same parties they're whining about.

It is interesting to note that you feel that the Filipinos are great ones to manoeuvre foreign nations to give them freebies by false pretentions of threats.

Do I take it that the others are equally gullible to fall hook, line and sinker for that ploy? Are the US diplomats and intelligence agencies inept and incompetent as you make them out to be?

Again, who is "Philippines"? You speak as though the country is a single person with a single opinion. In reality the perception of threat depends on who you're talking to and where. Where I live the Manila government and its armed forces are seen as a more immediate threat than the Chinese.

The same ones who you make out who feel that the Moros are Threat #1 and China is merely a dog and pony show!

You raise another interesting issue. To quote you – Where I live the Manila government and its armed forces are seen as a more immediate threat than the Chinese.

You have now got me more confused with this assertion.

Philippines is a democracy? Or is it a dictatorship like China? If it is a democracy, then why should it be a greater threat than China?

China has to be fought, if Philippines has the Might. On the other hand in a democracy, the Philippines Govt can be chucked out by the ballot. So, how is it a greater threat than China? What is a greater threat – the bullet or the ballot?

Again, who is "Philippines"? Certainly many Filipinos wonder about the extent to which they can rely on US help. It is clear, for example, that the US is not going to provide modern or even remotely competitive weaponry, and that the US is not going to take the side of the Philippines in territorial disputes. Whether or not that is dependable depends on what you were expecting in the first place.

You wrote that Philippine does not find the US a dependable ally.

I am sure you know who you meant by ‘Philippines’!

I think you underestimate the US as an ally and do you think the US speaks with a ‘forked tongue’?

What makes you feel that the US will not live up to its words as per the Treaty?

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Ray

Given your posts on the issue of China, US and Philippines, the approach taken by you was to rubbish the idea that Philippines was not concerned about China’s aggressive moves in the SCS.

I think the confusion comes from your apparent inability to acknowledge any possibility between "not concerned" and "#1 threat".

Originally Posted by Ray

one wonders how far the international and the Philippines media are not aware of what they write

I think the confusion here is because you're looking at coverage of the Philippines and China out of context, meaning you're not looking at all of the other stuff the Philippine media write about. Yes, the Philippine media run stories on China. That doesn't make China "the #1 threat". They also run many stories on many other subjects. The coverage, for example, of the running impeachment trial of the Supreme Court Chief Justice, the corruption story du jour, absolutely dwarfs coverage of China.

That's one of the drawbacks to using Google News. If you search only for articles regarding China, and read only the stories that come up, you get the distorted impression that the Philippine media are focused on "the China threat". If you look at the Philippine media as a whole, you get a very different impression.

Originally Posted by Ray

Further, in your posts, you repeatedly give the impression that China is not a major issue for Philippines. You claim that it was the Moro insurgency that was the primary concern and now you claim, in addition, it is corruption and inadequacy of the govt. To quote you - ( I also think you'd find that a lot more Filipinos would see the corruption and inadequacy of their own government as a greater threat than China.)

Again, you speak of "the Philippines" as if it were a single individual with a single set of opinions.

I have not claimed that the Moro insurgency was "the primary concern". I said it was the primary focus of US/Philippine military cooperation, a very different thing. I'd say average Filipinos across the board are more concerned with corruption and incompetence in government, which directly affect them, than they are about either insurgency or China's threat, which do not directly affect them. In areas where insurgents are active that changes, of course.

Originally Posted by Ray

If China was not a major issue for Philippines why are they, out of the blue, adding naval vessels to their fleet, albeit old? Or scouting around for foreign fighter jets?

Out of the blue? Hardly. The Philippine Military Modernization Plan dates back to 1995, and has been the subject of much discussion and multiple promises ever since. Every administration promises it, none deliver. The reality has been -and still is - that while it's easy to build a consensus around the idea that military modernization is needed, that consensus evaporates as soon as you start talking about what budget lines are going to be cut to supply the funding. The Philippines has been in on/off talks over aircraft acquisition for decades. The talks always stall over money. There's an initiative to buy fighters because the Philippines has none, and hasn't since they retired the last of their F-5s many years ago. None of this has happened "all of a sudden", it's just getting attention because of the current standoff. Even the current acquisition of naval vessels was negotiated long before the recent events... and if you look at the vessels being supplied, both by the US and those the Japanese are now offering, you'll seer that their size and armament makes them much more suitable for COIN/anti-piracy operations than for combat with the Chinese.

There's been more serious discussion of modernization in the last few years, largely because the country has posted decent growth figures for a number of years, public deficits have been trimmed to some degree, and thus the capacity to pursue a program that dates back to 1995 is greater than it was. Even with hat capacity, the plans on the table are very modest. $1 billion spread over 3 years is not a huge amount of money, and a few upgraded trainers and ships with no SS/SAM capacity really don't mean much stacked up against China.

Originally Posted by Ray

It could not be because of the Moro insurgency since that has been going on for quite sometimes and if it were the Moros, then this addition would have been done much earlier and not now, all of a sudden!

Therefore, given the international media and even the local news reports and the flurry in beefing up of the Philippines Military, it does indicate that, for some reason that you have not enunciated as to why you want to downplay the China issue, that your assumptions that China is not a major threat is not quite in order.

While I concede that you are in situ, but then to believe that the international media and the activities of the Philippine Govt in modernising (if that is the word) its armed forces are rubbish, it would be a bit too stretched for acceptance or belief!

As usual, if you look at current news reports without the historical and political context, you get an inaccurate impression.

Originally Posted by Ray

I have no idea as to what is ‘RC’. You may not remember, but if you care to go through this thread and the one about China Superpower, you would find having said so, directly and indirectly.

"RC" is half of "IIRC". I don't think I ever said that, though you might have gotten that impression.

Originally Posted by Ray

The US, in all probability, based troops against the Moro insurgents, but to believe that they are not prepared for contingencies other than the Moro would be mistaken.

The 600 or so troops stationed in the south, with no air or sea capability, would be of little use in any other contingency. They went there not because of China, but because the US managed to convince itself (for no very good reason) that SE Asia was the next front in the GWOT and that the ASG was an active AQ franchise. Nobody was much concerned with China at that time.

Originally Posted by Ray

US has based troops in Philippines on a ‘rotational basis’. What does that mean? Semantics for permanent basing.

It keeps the numbers limited and it stations the troops on Philippine military facilities, not on facilities under US control. To some extent it's a semantic dodge. Some Filipinos find it offensive and would like to end the arrangement. Most others are willing to put up with the semantic dodge as long as the US presence is in what for most Filipinos consider a faraway corner, and as long as it's seen as a move against the ASG, not a popular group in most of the country. If large rotational deployments were made closer to home, or if aircraft and ships started making more than occasional drop-by visits, I think you'd see a lot more resistance.

Originally Posted by Ray

It is not that the Philippines has tolerated the US forces based there. Philippines has no options. It is either having a benign US or a fire breathing Dragon!

The US forces deployed in the Philippines are working against Muslim insurgent/terrorist/bandit groups and have little or no relevance to China.

Originally Posted by Ray

Notwithstanding your assertion, all activities, to include beefing up the military and the media reports, indicate that it is China which is the Number One issue and not the Moros or the corruption or inadequacies.

Originally Posted by Ray

Obviously, if they are refurbishing their Military with acquired naval vessels and scouting around for fighter jets, it is obviously not a dog and pony show (to use an Americanism) they are organising!

You may have missed the constant chorus of complaints over the last few decades over the Moro rebels having faster and better-armed boats than the Navy, and of the inability of the Air Force to provide meaningful CAS. That's what happens when you only pay attention once in a long while.

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Ray

I would be immensely surprised if the people of Philippines who, as you say are concerned solely with corruption and inadequacies of their Govt and Moros, would sit still and not protest such needless spending on Defence. Their silence proves that they also feel that China is a threat. I am merely going by logic. You have to prove that this logic is wrong!

Nobody is concerned "solely" with anything. There's a hierarchy of concern, and the hierarchy is different among different individuals. As stated above, the actual proposed expenditures for defence are not large, and there's still considerable debate over where the money is to be sourced. There are many other concerns, many of them equally pressing, some of them more pressing.

Originally Posted by Ray

When a threat looms all close ranks.

The Chinese hegemonic pursuits have not really regaled the ASEAN. They are treading softly, but they are watching with great concern the moves by China. Militarily, they are no match for China. But should China misstep, their united pacific stance would make China lose face and that would be a big blow to China.

Don't expect ASEAN to close ranks, except perhaps with a statement. Not likely to happen. The level of perceived threat is very different for different members: the Philippines and Vietnam ar emore concerned, Malaysia and Indonesia less so, Thailand and Singapore still less.

Originally Posted by Ray

I took it that you, being the expert on Philippines, said that Moros were the No 1 threat.

But given the situation between the Philippines and China, and giving the due to your expert opinion that China is no threat, I stated that the Philippines must have downgraded the internal issues and given priority to Chinese activities or else why the brouhaha in the media and sudden US interest?

You persist in casting this as all or nothing, "#1 threat" or no threat at all, as if there were no middle ground. As I said above, I never said the Moros were the #1 threat, I said they were the primary focus of US/Philippine military cooperation. The Philippine government has long classified the NPA as a greater security threat than the Moros.

The media make a brouhaha when there's an incident. When there's an incident in the south, the brouhaha and the US concern are all about the Moros. When there's an incident on Scarborough shoal, the media all look at that. The media are fickle, and if you look at coverage in any particular moment without the historical and political context, you're likely to get a quite inaccurate impression.

Originally Posted by Ray

I would feel that not being enslaved or pushed around with negative ramifications by a foreign power (China) would be the first priority, whether one was the elite or the poor beggarman!

Nobody's looking at a threat of being "enslaved". The threat is of losing access to some fishing areas and to potential energy deposits. While being pushed around is humiliating and arouses an emotional response, most people here have much more immediate concerns.

Originally Posted by Ray

It is interesting to note that you feel that the Filipinos are great ones to manoeuvre foreign nations to give them freebies by false pretentions of threats.

Do I take it that the others are equally gullible to fall hook, line and sinker for that ploy? Are the US diplomats and intelligence agencies inept and incompetent as you make them out to be?

It's worked in the past. Ferdinand Marcos cast himself as the sole bulwark against impending Commie takeover (despite being the best thing that ever happened to the Communists), and the Americans obediently threw vast sums of money in his direction, providing unquestioning support for most of his reign. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo drew a substantial upgrade in US aid by casting herself as a loyal ally in the GWOT. There were real hopes in some circles that casting the Philippines as the first line of defense against the red horde would bring in a bunch of high end military equipment and a bunch of money, and there was some real disappointment when that did not materialize. Apparently the US diplomats and agencies are smarter than they once were.

Originally Posted by Ray

You raise another interesting issue. To quote you – Where I live the Manila government and its armed forces are seen as a more immediate threat than the Chinese.

You have now got me more confused with this assertion.

Philippines is a democracy? Or is it a dictatorship like China? If it is a democracy, then why should it be a greater threat than China?

Again, lack of context leads to misunderstanding. Throughout the tribal regions in the north (where I live), the Manila government is seen as a colonial power, trying to push its way in and grab timber, minerals, hydropower. People here fought a substantial war against the government from the late 70s through the early 90s. The town I live in was under virtual military occupation for a number of years; civilians were killed and there were many human rights abuses. There's peace now, mostly because the military stays out or keeps a very low profile and the big resource exploitation projects have been cancelled, but the people still see the Philippine military as a threat and the fighting could easily resume.

That's not unique: a long history of corruption, elite domination, and human rights abuse leaves large numbers of Filipinos seeing their own government as a major threat - and certainly a more immediate threat than China.

Originally Posted by Ray

China has to be fought, if Philippines has the Might. On the other hand in a democracy, the Philippines Govt can be chucked out by the ballot. So, how is it a greater threat than China? What is a greater threat – the bullet or the ballot?

You might want to read up a bit on the nature of Philippine "democracy". I can e-mail you an article on the subject that makes a good start point, if you like. The online version is behind a paywall.

Originally Posted by Ray

You wrote that Philippine does not find the US a dependable ally.

I am sure you know who you meant by ‘Philippines’!

I think you underestimate the US as an ally and do you think the US speaks with a ‘forked tongue’?

What makes you feel that the US will not live up to its words as per the Treaty?

What I said was that many Filipinos do not see the US as a dependable ally, not that "Philippine does not find the US a dependable ally".

I think Filipinos would be wise not to depend on the US to do whatever Filipinos want them to do. The US will act according to its own perceived interests.

The US has already made it clear that they've no intention of providing weaponry competitive with any regional peer, and that they will not take sides in territorial disputes. The treaty, as discussed before, obligates nothing beyond response "in accordance with constitutional procedures", which guarantees nothing. If US constitutional procedure concludes that the appropriate response to an incident is a diplomatic protest, that's all they are obligated to do.

Whether or not that makes the US a "dependable ally" depends on what you were depending on them to do in the first place. I think the Filipinos can depend on the US to at according to perceived US interests at any given time, which is all you'd expect from anyone in the realm of international affairs.