Afghanistan's Drug Problem

[davidbfpo]

A few days ago a KoW post appeared 'Setting the Record Straight on Eradication in Helmand' by Ryan Evans is a devasting critique of what happened recently. A taster:

This is the ultimate irony: In a campaign premised (rightly or wrongly) on the idea of alleviating the grievances of the population and winning its ‘hearts and minds,’ the single most damaging thing being done to Afghans is a Western and UN-funded crop eradication program.

Link:http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2012/05/set...on-in-helmand/

Ryan writes this very puzzling sentence, without a fuller explanation, with my emphasis:

Afghanistan produces an estimated three times the annual global poppy demand for heroin.

Why? Who is buying all the poppies and then producing heroin - which is placed in storage?

Ryan also points to the blogsite of a UK analyst:http://www.davidmansfield.org/all.php and a far wider Chatham House project on Drugs and Organized Crime:http://www.chathamhouse.org/research...rganized-crime

[davidbfpo]

The post started an exchange and the last person added a stunning comment:

In 02 when we reduced opium cultivation in Nad-i-Ali by 85% in one crop year (just before our funding was cut) it was done with a drainage rehabilitation project that hired some 3000-5000 men to work on their own irrigation system for pay, some $1.75 a day, start support for the cotton gin that had not had any spare parts for some 20 years, back payments for cotton delivered to the gin but not yet paid for, promises for a continuing reconstruction effort (which did not happen) early warnings not to plant poppy and eradication at germination time, in time to replant with wheat. The farmers in at least Nad-i-Ali were into peanuts big time with Pakistani and Iranian markets, starting in early vegetables with crude green houses and several other innovations which did not get support....One of the key reasons for the developing drug based economy has been our ineffectiveness (understatement) in addressing the issue for the past 10 years.

Link:http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2012/05/set...mand/#comments

Within the KoW comments the last one IMHO opens a "pandora's box" of information on the drug control issues in the Helmand Valley, a blog by a USAID analyst who was on the ground 1971-78 and 2003-2012.

Link:http://www.scottshelmandvalleyarchives.org/

I hope that, being selfish for a moment, that this information was available to the UK in 2006, for those assembling the intelligence briefings when the decision was made to intervene and those who once survival was not so dominant could use it as 'human terrain' material.

Just on a quick glance, as there are hundreds of documents, they constitute a "goldmine".

[bourbon]

Why? Who is buying all the poppies and then producing heroin - which is placed in storage?

The problem for large traffickers is keeping the global price of their heroin product propped up; just like the DeBeers corporation will keep diamonds off of the market to maintain the high price of diamonds, so too do drug cartels (there is a reason why they are called "cartels" after all).

Heroin has a long shelf life; there are caches of heroin all around the world, just to keep the price inflated.

The raw material costs (of opium) are nothing compared to what the final product (heroin) sells for, its peanuts – the ROI is huge.

[Lewis341]

Whenever surplus possibilities are current, drug dealers will have enticements to bring forth the supply to satisfy purchaser's desires. The finer the excesses are to be rated, the finer, the rewards and the finer the supply of drug selections approach over time.

[davidbfpo]

Ryan Evans has another paper on wider, related matters in CTC's Sentinel:http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-mi...lmand-province

I noted two linked passages, my emphasis added:

Helmand has been the largest poppy-producing province in Afghanistan by a considerable margin. With the eradication program in Helmand wiping out only three percent of the yearly crop, at the cost of alienating struggling farmers whose meager poppy profits barely get them and their families through the year, the utility of this counternarcotics program is questionable at best

Nothing startling I fear:

In Helmand, there is a “Gray Nexus” among the Afghan government, narcotics cartels, the insurgency, and the population based on a common interest in poppy cultivation, processing, and trafficking. The insurgency serves as a protection and transportation racket for the cartels. It also plays a role in surging migrant farmers to help with the harvest in the spring and, in some areas, the insurgents offer farmers protection against eradication efforts. Poppy cultivation and narcotics trafficking represent the most important source of revenue for the Taliban in southern Afghanistan.[40] Government officials profit by allowing and facilitating trafficking. It is not uncommon for government officials in Helmand to be more directly involved in cultivation, processing, trafficking and facilitation. Poppy profits, which are modest for farmers, provide enough cash for a family to meet its costs of living. These profits also serve as a form of insurance for family illnesses, failed crops, drought, and any needed repairs.

[davidbfpo]

An article from Foreign Affairs, with a rather startling suggestion - copying Iran's way - as Afghanistan's drug addiction problem worsens:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...rugs?page=show

It opens with:

...the narcotics trade presents one of the gravest threats to the country’s long-term stability and security.... Afghanistan remains the world’s largest supplier of heroin and other illegal opiates.

In NATO countries alone, Afghan narcotics cause more than 10,000 heroin-overdose deaths per year -- making them far deadlier than the munitions that have claimed the lives of approximately 3,200 coalition personnel since the start of the war.

[davidbfpo]

Opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan has been increasing for a third year in a row and is heading for a record high, the U.N. said in a report released Monday. The boom in poppy cultivation is at its most pronounced in the Taliban's heartland in the south...

Increased production has been driven by unusually high opium prices, but more cultivation of Afghanistan's premier cash crop is also an indication that Afghans are turning to illicit markets and crops as the real economy shrinks ahead of the expected withdrawal of foreign combat troops at the end of 2014.

Link to Yahoo summary:http://news.yahoo.com/un-afghan-opiu...081638728.html

Link to UNODC report:http://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-...13_phase12.pdf

[davidbfpo]

Maybe this reflects a policy taken by default as the decisions were made lower and lower down the command chain. A short article on the US Army's last planned brigade deployment in Kandahar Province:http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013...n-poppies/all/

The last two paragraphs:

The Americans changed their approach to poppies in order to win over the countless Afghans who need poppies to survive.

In that sense it might be too late for America’s hands-off poppy policy to work. As Gackstatter and his 2nd Platoon are learning, the war over Afghan poppies was probably lost years ago. And the U.S., now eying the exit after more than a decade of battle, is the loser.

[davidbfpo]

A short BBC report, by its experienced reporter, David Loyn; which opens with:

Afghan opium cultivation has reached a record level, with more than 200,000 hectares planted with the poppy for the first time, the United Nations says. The UNODC report said the harvest was 36% up on last year, and if fully realised would outstrip global demand. Most of the rise was in Helmand province, where British troops are preparing to withdraw. One of the main reasons the UK sent troops to Helmand was to cut opium production.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24919056

No real surprises here.

I would strongly disagree with opium production being a 'main reason' for the 2006 UK decision to deploy to Helmand. In one Whitehall discussion, at RUSI, one speaker stated drugs did not even appear as a reason and no-one consulted on that aspect.