David, it seems to me (and of course, I am not privy to any inside info in these matters) that the hardcore paknationalist faction within the Pakistani state (and ultimately LET, or at least its leadership, will do what it is told by this faction) is still waiting for the US to leave so that things can "get back to normal". Of course, things will never really get back to where they were, but the dream is not yet dead. Individual Kashmiri origin militants may get tired and wish to go home, but:
1. The Paknationalist-Jihadist complex hopes to fight another day.
2. "Home" is also India, not exactly the most capable state in the world. There is likely to be enough mismanagement, corruption and incompetence in the program to keep the flickering flame of insurgency alive. I am not saying the program won't work at all. Things are slowly getting better in Kashmir and will probably get better even if there is a Paknationalist attempt to turn back the clock...but I am just guessing that the "good news" will likely be tempered by some rather un-German efficiency at the Indian end. (I am personally hoping that I turn out to be wrong..if that makes any sense...I think most Indians, Pakistanis and particularly Kashmiris will be better off if this whole liberation jihad is put to bed)
Something like that.
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