Entropy posted:
What's at question is Europe's capability to utilize military force in Europe's near-abroad to defend Europe's interests and there European capability is lacking.
As if to order Bob advises all:
So to prepare for the next 50 years we'd be wise to look back at the past 100; for the next 100 the past 200.
A bit of history first. In 1956 the USA opposed (rightly) the last big external operation by two European nations, the Anglo-French intervention in Egypt, usually called the Suez crisis. If you exclude Bosnia & Kosovo then Europe, which is wider than NATO & the EU, has not mounted any defence of Europe's interests. The only special case that comes to mind is Cyprus, when individual nations under UN auspices contributed and today very few Europeans want to be there - Cyprus going way beyond it's best by date, as boredom set in.

Incidentally I don't think European leaders (within NATO & EU) should be forgiven for their crazy policies over Bosnia and it was a trilateral-only mission that broke the Bosnian Serbs at Sarajevo. The Dutch, French and British with heavy artillery & mortars being placed on Mount Igman.

Given the generally agreed poor state of a European capability to intervene, the best illustration of this comes with maritime border control; yes, often not a military responsibility. It is common knowledge that the Mediterranean is a major route for illegal migration, well illustrated during the Tunisian and then Libyan crises on the Italian island of Pantelleria. Fast forward to Greece and the ten of thousands of known illegals and refugees stuck in limbo there.

Border control is a European issue - using a broader definition of security.

To Bob's point to look back. Europe is no longer the fulcrum of international politics, as a continent it is "drawing in" and shrinking in many measures of power - with military coercion to the fore. It does have many non-coercive instruments of influence and power, but these remain largely used at a national level.

In some respect Europe and I exclude Russia in this - is in a very similar position to the years before 1914. Other powers were advancing, note Russia was the fastest developing economy pre-1914 and these powers were often in competition with the largest European nations: France, Germany, Italy and Great Britain. With the exception of a handful of countries, yes, the Imperial ones with far-flung and nearby colonies, Europe looked inwards and outwards in very similar proportions. Emigration was then a huge factor and remained so until 1939, for e.g. Italians going to Argentina.