There is no doubt that the crisis has delivered important findings for monetary policy and for monetary union. However, my key message today is to make clear that the paradigms that have been valid to date have by no means suddenly lost their validity. On the contrary, given the challenges that we are facing today, we should not recklessly throw long-held principles overboard and turn our backs on the lessons from the past.
Ultimately, monetary union in its current institutional form was created as a result of lessons learned from past errors. And by that, I do not so much mean German hyperinflation at the beginning of the 1920s, as is all too often assumed by foreign observers. Instead I mean the monetary policy experience gained in the 1970s and 1980s with the extremely heterogeneous development of inflation in Europe. Countries with politically independent central banks and a clear primary objective of price stability, such as Germany, had much lower inflation rates than countries in which central banks were obliged to follow politicians’ instructions and were additionally called upon to pursue fiscal and economic policy goals. This is one of the reasons why the Bundesbank, with its culture of stability, was chosen as a founding model for the Eurosystem.
An independent central bank is necessary for stable prices, but more than that is needed. Price stability is also jeopardised by unsound public finances. If public finances get out of hand, the central bank can come under overwhelming pressure to jump to fiscal policy’s rescue and, in so doing, can undermine its primary objective of price stability.
This lesson is not just derived from theoretical models, it has been evidenced time and time again in the past. A particularly good example from history is the Latin monetary union comprising Italy, France, Belgium, Switzerland and Greece. Even before the treaty of union came into force, Italy’s debt exploded owing to the war with Austria. On 1 May 1866, the government took out a loan with the Banca Nazionale to finance this debt for which Italy departed from the bimetallic standard and imposed an enforced rate of exchange for its banknotes. This enforced monetary financing of war debts triggered the first severe crisis of the Latin monetary union and fuelled a permanent mistrust between the member states.
Bookmarks