Modernization/Development Theory, CORDS, and FM 3-24?

[TheCurmudgeon]

So, my question to the probably two whole people that are interested in the topic, is how much did the general intellectual climate of our larger foreign policy intelligentsia find representation in current COIN doctrine?

I am not really sure about COIN doctrine in general, but American Coin doctrine that supports the policy objective of spreading democracy does not have to many other choices. Modernization Theory is pretty much the only game in town when it comes to exogenous (externally imposed) democracy.

If these theories are discredited, why do we continue to interact with nations based on such theories?

Two points here. The first is that there are no alternatives. There are really no other competing theories out there to explain how a state becomes a democracy.

The second point has to do with Modernization Theory itself. It is not really a complete theory. It is more a group of observations about what conditions have existed in a society when a country became or successfully continued to remain a democracy. There is really no coherant explination of why these things happen, just a lot of tables and charts that show that these things (education and literacy, wealth and a capitalist economy, egalitarian values, political activite citizenry, etc.) tend to coincide with democracy. It is kind of like claiming a theory of percipitation that states that when it is cloudy it rains. It is a largely accurate observation. But the theory does not explain why sometimes it is cloudy but it still does not rain or why, in places like Hawaii, it can rain from a largely cloudless sky.

Is what I am postulating even true, and is it contributing to our current problems in A-stan?

I would say that it is contributing to our problems in A-stan, but that question is larger than I can answer here. I would suggest you go back and read the original article if you can find it. You will see how Lipset discussed various ideas. He also concludes that democracy is only one possible consequence of the various social requisites. Others since, like Larry Diamond, have tried to push this idea as a simple causal relationship. It is that kind of thinking that can be damaging.

BTW, I am very interested in this topic and have spent the about four years now working through it. So you are not alone ... (insert theme from"The X-Files" here)