Severe Space Weather

[AdamG]

(Reuters) - The strongest geomagnetic storm in more than six years was forecast to hit Earth's magnetic field on Tuesday, and it could affect airline routes, power grids and satellites, the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...80M25Q20120123

[wm]

{RANT ON}I wish that the snippets of articles AdamG posts could have a few of additions.
First, it would be nice if the poster would make something of these posts--explain the "so what" of the post. The following is an example--the post had no subject and no analysis or discussion.

Originally Posted by AdamG

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news...eading-our-way

Next , a follow up would be nice. The linked article noted a possible impact. So after 4 days, one might expect to see a follow on to identify what actually happened when the storm hit. But, all we have from AdamG is a new post about another space storm that might be coming to harm us.
In fact, on Jan 22, a couple of follow ups were made to the original story: Excerpted from one is the following

Originally Posted by http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/21/10207087-solar-weather-stirs-up-super-sights

The storm of electrically charged particles is projected to take a relatively non-threatening path past our planet. "We think it'll go to the north of Earth ... rather than right at us," he said.

and the later follow up had this to say

Originally Posted by http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/21/10207087-solar-weather-stirs-up-super-sights

The Space Weather Prediction Center is showing a rise in solar particle flux, and European observers are passing along some great pictures.

(As an aside, I'm not clear how brighter Northern Lights seen afurther south has much to do with Small Wars. )



Finally, the snippets tend to be pulled out of context. In this case, as the following quotation from that same article shows, the scare found in the posted excerpt was almost completely dismissed 2 sentences later.

Originally Posted by http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/19/10192639-solar-blast-heading-our-way

M-class flares are capable of causing brief radio blackouts near the poles as well as minor radiation storms, but it's unlikely that this one will disrupt communication or power transmission networks. The forecast would be different if it were an X-class storm heading our way.

{RANT OFF}

[AdamG]

Originally Posted by wm

Next , a follow up would be nice. The linked article noted a possible impact. So after 4 days, one might expect to see a follow on to identify what actually happened when the storm hit. But, all we have from AdamG is a new post about another space storm that might be coming to harm us.

Instead of complaining, you can do a followup. There's nothing stopping you, is there?

[AdamG]

On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events,
Space Weather, 10, S02012, doi:10.1029/2011SW000734.
Riley, P. (2012), Received 16 September 2011; accepted 22 December 2011; published 23 February 2012.

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others.

In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and >30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future.

For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst < −850 nT) occurring within the next decade is ∼12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/201...SW000734.shtml

[AdamG]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE: A CME propelled toward Earth by this morning's X5-class solar flare is expected to reach our planet on March 8th at 0625 UT (+/- 7 hr). Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the CME's forecast track, say the impact could spark a strong-to-severe geomagnetic storm. Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, phone.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

WASHINGTON — The largest solar flare in five years is racing toward Earth, threatening to unleash a torrent of charged particles that could disrupt power grids, GPS and airplane flights.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...zwR_story.html

[AdamG]

A new government list of major threats to the UK has identified solar flares as one of the top risks to the country's way of life. Solar flares are explosions on the surface of the sun that can blast solar winds made up of charge particles towards the earth, disrupting electronic equipment. The UK's ever-increasing reliance upon technology makes it particularly vulnerable.

http://www.techradar.com/news/world-...s-list-1072073

[AdamG]

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because this sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend. Geomagnetic storm alerts: text, voice.

http://www.spaceweather.com/