South China Sea and China

[Ray]

Originally Posted by JMA

Posturing and bluff only work if the target of the exercise actually believes what is threatened will be carried out.

Does any sane person think the US (certainly this administration) are prepared to put their 'muscle' where their mouth is with regard to China?

All this is in an election year remember and the scum... err... I mean politicians are saying what they think the voters want to hear.

I wonder if the US is putting its money where their mouth is.

But this much I understand is that they are upto something rather 'nasty'!

Joint exercise of Indian and S Korean naval warships in Busan


http://www.business-standard.com/gen...n-busan/15667/

What the dickens is India doing that far out?

[davidbfpo]

Ray,

The clues to the deployment are in the linked article:

Following the completion of the joint exercise (with Korea), the Indian fleet will sail for Tokyo in Japan. The ships have already paid port calls at Singapore and Vietnam. On their return journey from Japan, they would also be visiting Shanghai in China and Malaysia.

This is a typical naval cruise, "waving the flag" and telling the audience that India has arrived. I assume this is the first such long distance cruise to the area.

Remember when the Soviet Navy sailed past Singapore during a Commonwealth Summit in 1971? It caused quite a media and diplomatic furore.

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by JMA

LOL... see what I mean... who are these nobody's you choose to speak so authoritatively on their behalf?

That was an observation based on 30+ years of observing this little drama at fairly close range, not speaking on anyone's behalf. It doesn't seem like a terribly contentious observation: it's hard to reach any other conclusion based on events over time. Of course if you reach the conclusion before observing the events, anything is possible.

Originally Posted by JMA

Posturing and bluff only work if the target of the exercise actually believes what is threatened will be carried out.

Does any sane person think the US (certainly this administration) are prepared to put their 'muscle' where their mouth is with regard to China?

All this is in an election year remember and the scum... err... I mean politicians are saying what they think the voters want to hear.

The US isn't the only one bluffing and posturing. The Chinese and all other parties are doing the same thing. The Chinese also play to their domestic gallery... nothing like whipping up a bit of nationalist pride to distract from corruption scandals, growing disparities in income distribution, etc.

Nobody seems terribly eager to put muscle behind the mouth, nobody's making specific threats, and nobody is showing any visible interest in calling anyone's bluffs, so the status quo remains. I don't see any advantage for the US in trying to upset it.

Originally Posted by Ray

I wonder if the US is putting its money where their mouth is.

The US has a very big mouth and a shortage of money, so they will never fully put their money where their mouth is. It's always interesting to observe the extent to which rhetoric is supported by action. In this case we have a lot of theatrical sound bites with no visible change in underlying policy. That suggests that the administration sees existing policy as adequate, which it largely has been. Existing policy has not resolved the disputes in the SCS, but those disputes are not within the capacity of the US to resolve, and I see little to be gained by wading aggressively into that particular mess.

[Ray]

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

Ray,

The clues to the deployment are in the linked article:

This is a typical naval cruise, "waving the flag" and telling the audience that India has arrived. I assume this is the first such long distance cruise to the area.

Remember when the Soviet Navy sailed past Singapore during a Commonwealth Summit in 1971? It caused quite a media and diplomatic furore.

That is true.

The Indian Navy should have also called on a South Korean port to show the flag.

But they are holding a naval exercise.

Now that is what makes the issue a little mysterious.

The 5 June 2012 Press release by the Govt of India adds to concern.

India and Japan to Conduct First Ever Naval Exercise

The Indian Navy and the Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force will conduct their first ever bilateral exercise during the visit of four Indian Navy ships to Japan from 5-9 June, 2012 as part of the scheduled Overseas Fleet Deployment. The exercise will be conducted off the coast of Japan on 09-10 June, 2012.

The conduct of bilateral naval exercises between both countries was decided during the visit of the Defence Minister Shri AK Antony to Japan in November, 2011. Both Navies will also conduct routine passage exercises (PASSEX) during the visit of Japanese ships to Indian ports this year.

The engagement between the Navies of India and Japan is part of the overall defence cooperation between both countries. Defence exchanges between India and Japan presently comprise annual Defence Minister level meetings, Defence Policy dialogue at Defence Secretary level and Army and Naval Staff Talks.
http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=84688

So the Indian Navy is showing the flag elsewhere, but are undertaking naval exercises with US' two staunch allies in the Pacific region.

Interestingly, I heard/saw on TV when Admiral Raja Menon (Retd) was being interviewed that the Indian Navy are to have 47 new naval vessels apart from the leased nuclear submarine and the one she is building.

It appears that India is keen to show her presence in the Oceans for good reasons.

[Ray]

Though could be another thread.

A could know point in this context of the SCS, Indian Ocean etc.


Navy spreading its wings far and wide with warship deployments


NEW DELHI: In keeping with its steadily growing blue-water capabilities, the Navy is now all set to dispatch four warships on an overseas deployment to the Horn of Africa, Red Sea and the western Mediterranean, even as four of its other warships entered the Shanghai port in China on Wednesday.

The long deployments towards the east and west come at a time when Indian warships are also headed towards Seychelles, Mauritius and the Maldives to help them in surveillance of their Exclusive Economic Zones as well as conduct anti-piracy patrols.

Simultaneously, stealth frigate INS Tabar is conducting anti-piracy patrols and escort duties in the Gulf of Aden, while the spanking new INS Teg is currently in the Red Sea on way to India from Russia. ``Such long-range deployments, covering the Indian Ocean region (IOR) and beyond, bear testimony to the blue-water capabilities and operational readiness of the Navy,'' said an officer.

The four warships headed for the Horn of Africa — INS Mumbai, INS Trishul, INS Aditya and INS Gomti — are under the command of Western Fleet commander Rear Admiral A R Karve. The four Eastern Fleet warships on the ongoing deployment to South China Sea and North-West Pacific — INS Rana, INS Shivalik, INS Karmukh and INS Shakti — are led by Rear Admiral P Ajit Kumar.


More at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/i...w/14108207.cms

[Ray]

A legal analysis in support of Vietnam's position regarding the Paracel & Spratley Islands

http://trankinhnghi2.blogspot.in/201...viet-nams.html

Why the East Sea became the South China Sea?

http://trankinhnghi2.blogspot.in/201...china-sea.html

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Lowy Institute for the pointer to an interactive map of incidents and more:http://www.cnas.org/flashpoints

Included is a January 2012 paper on the Chinese perspective:http://www.cnas.org/flashpoints/bull...se-perspective

[davidbfpo]

Today Admiral Nirmal Kumar Verma, Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee & Chief of Naval Staff, spoke at IISS in London, on 'Metamorphosis of Matters Maritime: An Indian Perspective'.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/recent-key-addre...n-perspective/

In his speech I noted a few points:

It may surprise some to know that our anti-piracy operations have thus far been coordinated trilaterally with the Chinese and Japanese and very recently this initiative has included the South Korean navy.

Then:

The growing scope and complexity of ‘Combined Exercises’ such as those of ‘MALABAR’ with the United States Navy, ‘VARUNA’ with the French, ‘KONKAN’ with the Royal Navy, ‘INDRA’ with the Russians, ‘SIMBEX’ with the Singaporeans and ‘IBSAMAR’ with the South African and Brazilian Navies all contribute towards our cooperative engagement initiatives. As I speak to you, some of our ships are on their way back from a deployment to the South and East China Seas while some others are on their way to the Mediterranean.

This did surprise me:

a retaliatory strike capability that is credible and invulnerable is an imperative. The Indian Navy is poised to complete the triad

[Ray]

New carrier role in Pacific: fight illegal fishing

http://www.navytimes.com/news/2012/0...acific-062112/

[Ray]

China warns US, Philippines, Vietnam on 'military provocations'

"The determination and will of China's military to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering."

Geng's remarks came as the United States launched the largest-ever "Rim of the Pacific" naval exercises in Hawaii, involving 22 nations, including the US, India, Russia, Australia and the Philippines.

http://www.interaksyon.com/article/3...y-provocations

It is obvious that such a huge exercise with so many nations 'ganging up' against China, as China see it, would really put the shivers into China!

What is the US up to?

[davidbfpo]

Ray,

Even I from afar know that this exercise is a bi-annual event, so hardly a surprise to China and others. Those involved are:

Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, the Republic of Korea, the Republic of the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Thailand, Tonga, the UK and the USA

China has been an observer in the past.

Link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIMPAC

Better still this 'ganging up' exercise is in Hawaii, a long way from the South China Sea, so hardly fits:

would really put the shivers into China!

Yes China may want to remind everyone of its stance on her rights in the SCS.

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Ray

It is obvious that such a huge exercise with so many nations 'ganging up' against China, as China see it, would really put the shivers into China!

What is the US up to?

Nothing very unusual. The exercise is held on a regular basis. of course after announcing a pivot to the Pacific it had to be ratcheted up a bit, but it's nothing fundamentally out of the ordinary. of course the Chinese will issue the ritual denunciations, but I doubt they are shivering.

[Ray]

China has been an observer in the past.

Link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIMPAC

That is why this is interesting.

Beaman acknowledged that China was not invited, but hastened to add, "We continually seek to improve our military-to-military relationship with China. (But) Right now, as I suggested earlier, that effort toward that mil-to-mil effort -- that effort is taking place at the strategic level. And so we do look forward to when we have the opportunity for more military-to-military engagements at the operational and tactical level, which would take place in a RIMPAC exercise or an exercise of this nature. But unfortunately, that is not where the relationship is right now."

Why leave them out when they were always there?

Not pleasant signals really, especially since they are not like some others not participants but merely observers.

Is it a political/diplomatic/ strategic message or a snub?

What would be the consequences is what one is interested in.

China, is very sensitive about all these things. Losing face.


Regular RIMPAC participants (dark blue) and usual observers (light blue).

[Ray]

I doubt they are shivering.

OK, not shivering.

But quaking in anger at losing face in front of weaklings of the Pacific Rim they were trying to intimidate.

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Ray

OK, not shivering.

But quaking in anger at losing face in front of weaklings of the Pacific Rim they were trying to intimidate.

I don't think they're quaking in anger, either... how do they lose face from the US holding a slightly larger than usual version of a regular exercise? Nobody's really getting all that upset or obsessive over this stuff.

Another look at the ASEAN/US/China balance... can't say I agree with all of it, but overall a reasonable summary of where the parties sit going into the upcoming meeting:

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/booming-se-...071127183.html

[Ray]

Originally Posted by Dayuhan

I don't think they're quaking in anger, either... how do they lose face from the US holding a slightly larger than usual version of a regular exercise? Nobody's really getting all that upset or obsessive over this stuff.

Another look at the ASEAN/US/China balance... can't say I agree with all of it, but overall a reasonable summary of where the parties sit going into the upcoming meeting:

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/booming-se-...071127183.html

i would not know the reality, but this is what is being said in the US.

Inside China: China upset over RIMPAC snub

As China ratchets up military tensions with almost all of its neighbors in the Western Pacific, the United States is hosting its largest multinational maritime exercise and has excluded China from joining the maneuvers near Hawaii called Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC).

Beijing is not happy about it.

“The United States is using this exercise to show off its military strength, seeking military alliances in order to contain the military rise of another country in the region. Such [a] scheme is so thoroughly exposed now,” the official People’s Daily stated Saturday. The newspaper is the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party.

“It is obvious that the purpose of the U.S. calling in these many allies to conduct joint exercises is to exert pressure onto certain neighboring countries through military drills, as well as to [examine] the combat readiness of the U.S. military,” the newspaper said.

It appears that what particularly angered the Chinese was the invitation to and participation by Russia and India in this year’s 22-nation exercises, which began Friday.......

I wonder would this be what has upset China apart from not being invited to join the exercise as it has been doing all along when Russia or India were not invited?

First-time RIMPAC participant Russia also is running a brisk arms trade with many Asian and Pacific countries that have open confrontations with China on territorial disputes.

Also participating in the exercise for the first time is India. China is engaged a decades-long border dispute with India, which increasingly sees itself as a key maritime player in the Indian and Pacific oceans as a counterbalance to China’s growing military presence. India is arming itself rapidly and has become the world’s largest weapons-importing country.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...r-rimpac-snub/

All said and done it is quite an insult that there is this deviation wherein they are not invited as was the form and instead Russia and India (with which China has issues) are being invited!

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Ray

I wonder would this be what has upset China apart from not being invited to join the exercise as it has been doing all along when Russia or India were not invited?

Has China been a previous participant? I think they've had observer status a few times, but I'm not aware of them ever having actually joined the exercise.

Certainly there's a bit of messaging going on, but I doubt that anyone on the Chinese side is really all that upset about it, though they will of course issue the usual public complaints. Unless they were totally witless - and they're not - they'd have presumably anticipated such moves, which are typical of a situation where everyone wants to look tough and look like they have allies, but where nobody wants to fight. Expect a lot more of the same.

I expect that the Chinese will also be watching closely and will see what they can learn by doing so.

[Ray]

This is what was said by a Chinese poster in another forum.

Who said that China is not participating?

We are participating as the enemy!

[Dayuhan]

ASEAN rallies together... not.

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/southeast-a...065618388.html

ASEAN talks fail over China territorial dispute

Days of heated diplomacy at Southeast Asian talks ended in failure Friday as deep splits over China prevented the ASEAN grouping from issuing its customary joint statement for the first time.

Foreign ministers from the 10-member bloc have been wrangling since Monday to hammer out a diplomatic communique, which has held up progress on a separate code of conduct aimed at soothing tension in the flashpoint South China Sea.

China claims sovereignty over nearly all of the resource-rich sea, which is home to vital shipping lanes, but ASEAN members the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei have competing claims in the area.

The long-stalled code of conduct, strongly supported by the United States, is seen as a way of reducing the chances of a spat over fishing, shipping rights or oil and gas exploration tipping into an armed conflict.

"I think it would be fair to say that tempers in some of the private meetings have run hot. There have been some very tense back and forths," one US official said.

To make a longs story short, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand don't give a hot round one about the South China Sea and are very much aware of their commercial relationships with China. The Philippines and Vietnam want support against China. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore are in between. Consensus is not likely.

[Dayuhan]

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/440...uck-on-ph-reef

Chinese warship stuck on PH reef

A Chinese warship has run aground on a reef off Palawan while patrolling contested waters in the West Philippine Sea, an Australian newspaper reported on Friday...