Syria: a civil war (closed)

[TheCurmudgeon]

Is Assad and his Alawite supporters setting themselves up for the long fight.

On the other hand, says military analyst Jensen, the regime would make such a fallback decision in a time of desperation, and economic concerns wouldn't matter. He also says Russia would still have access to the port at Tartous, and Iran would still be able to project its influence in the region, especially if Assad brings enough firepower with him to the mountains.

"I would expect to see some consolidation — and you're already seeing some reporting of this," Jensen says, referring to chemical and biological weapons stockpiles, as well as movement of mobile launchers used to fire Scud missiles.

"Once you take those and haul yourself up along the coast in the mountains, you still have the threat to Israel, that's beneficial to Iran; you still have an ability to influence events in Lebanon — but not as much," Jensen says. "So that's what Iran loses if they fall back there, but it still is better than nothing."

http://www.tristatesradio.com/post/a...yrias-alawites