Russian Military Seen in Decline

[Rank amateur]

Originally Posted by William F. Owen

Numbers is the only think on their side.

And nuclear weapons.

[Norfolk]

Originally Posted by William F. Owen

...and they lost vast numbers of men doing it. The Russians may understand the Operational level, but they can only apply it at great cost. - millions of lives to defeat the Nazis.

Unless they have numbers the Russians are, like the Chinese, and North Koreans, mostly sub-capable. Numbers is the only think on their side.

"Talks Star Wars, Act Cave man"

Too true Wilf, and your ending quote pretty much sums up the essence of Russian Military Theory and Practice.

[Ken White]

Originally Posted by Rank amateur

And nuclear weapons.

They just make a bigger bang, no more. Yes, there is radiation -- but there is also high cholestrerol; everybody's gonna die from something...

[kaur]

With its conventional forces Russia will be able to keep and increase its capability to
operate on parts of the Eurasian land mass. It will thus develop a considerable regional
power projection capability.

http://www.foi.se/upload/rapporter/f...capability.pdf

[Jedburgh]

Eurasia Daily Monitor, 17 Jan 08: Moscow Resumes May Parades to Demonstrate Military Strength

Full-scale, Soviet-style military parades – with displays of tanks and other military hardware – will return to Red Square beginning May 9. The decision to resume this public display of military might was reportedly taken at a January 12 meeting of top Russian military leaders. The new Topol-M (SS-27) mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles will also roll past the reviewing stands near the Kremlin wall. The parade is timed to celebrate VE-Day, the end of the European portion of World War II.

The planned high-profile parade will apparently coincide with the inauguration of the next Russian president, presumably Dmitry Medvedev, whom Vladimir Putin has designated as his successor. Medvedev’s election on March 2 is a near certainty, since elections are a mere formality in the framework of Russia's imitation democracy, and the new president must be inaugurated during the first half of May. A public display of Russian armor and nuclear might is clearly a grand way to welcome Medvedev and to commend Putin, who has agreed to serve alongside Medvedev as prime minister. Its easy to imagine them both – Putin and Medvedev – standing side-by-side atop the reviewing stand in front of Vladimir Lenin's tomb, as the tanks and ICBMs roll by and jet fighters scream overhead – symbolizing the restoration of mighty Russia.....

[kaur]

Putin had become convinced during the Second Chechen War that an army based on mass conscription was completely ineffective for the defense of the country. “To effectively respond to terrorists we would need to assemble a force of at least 65,000 men. But of all the military land forces, only 55,000 were in battle-ready condition,” recalled Putin, referring to the level of federal forces in 2006. “The Army has 1.4 million personnel, but none of them can fight. So they sent unseasoned kids into battle.”

It would appear that the number of military service members in contract units hovers somewhere around 50,000.

http://russophobe.blogspot.com/2008/...ion-golts.html

[kaur]

Russia's Security Policy Grows "Muscular": Should the West Be Worried?

http://www.upi-fiia.fi/eng/events/ev...nce_policies/#

[kaur]

Resurgent Russia? A Still-Faltering Military

Still, despite the recent infusions of resources, Russia’s army remains a pale shadow of its former self. If it is, indeed, on the road to recovery, it has a very long way to go considering its present condition, confusion about its future direction, and the enormous advances the U.S. armed forces have made since the Cold War.

http://www.hoover.org/publications/p.../14830596.html

[Jedburgh]

Russia Profile, 5 Jun 08: Hunting Conscripts

Russia’s Ministry of Defense is desperately searching for new conscripts, as the Russian army faces difficulty in drafting enough soldiers for the next year. The problem is that beginning in 2009, a sharp decrease in the number of eligible conscripts is expected, since exactly 18 years ago, in 1991, Russia experienced a sharp birthrate decline. In Russia, young men can be drafted into the army starting at the age of 18.

This decline was connected to the economic difficulties caused by price liberalization, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and other forms of turmoil that Russia underwent during that epoch. Starting in 2000, the economic and demographic trends improved, but the military commissariats all over Russia presently face problems, since the army currently needs young and preferably educated people now, and not in 18 years. The army’s problems are aggravated by the recent cut in the term of military service, which reduced the time of obligatory service from two years to one.

Thus the military seems to have opted for a radical solution - to grab high school graduates immediately following their graduation in late May, before they manage to enter universities in June and July. According to Russia’s law “On Military Duties and Service,” students cannot be drafted into the army.....

[Fuchs]

http://russiamil.wordpress.com/2010/...eorganization/

(...)
The goal of all these transformations is to reduce the number of layers of command from sixteen to three, hopefully thereby increasing the speed and accuracy of military decision-making. The idea is that with this new simplified command system and improvements in communication equipment, “the chief of the general staff will be able to call any company or platoon commander” and vice-versa. (...)

Ouch. 16 to 3 is incredible (and I doubt that it's accurate), but a direct comm link from Moscow to a platoon at the Chinese border isn't exactly an improvement in my opinion.

[bourbon]

Russian Military Reform Goal #37: No more beating young conscripts to death and then selling their organs on the Chinese Black Market


Is the Russian Army Bullying Its Soldiers to Death?, by Carl Schreck. Time Magazine, June 21, 2010

Russians have become so familiar with stories of military suicides that Suslov's death might have warranted little more than a brief mention in the press had it not been for the disturbing video posted on YouTube on June 2 showing his body in an open casket. In the video, Suslov's shirt is opened to reveal a line of enormous stitches running from his neck to his abdomen, evoking images of the leather laces on an antique basketball. His mother hovers over his body while the mother of a solider who allegedly committed suicide in 2003 gives a harrowing narration of the apparent injuries to Suslov's body. The woman, Alma Bukharbayeva, claims her son Marat was murdered during his mandatory service in Bikin and that his organs were removed and sold on the black market in China. The crude stitches and various bruises and abrasions on Suslov's body, she alleges in the video, indicate his organs may also have been removed to be sold for transplant surgeries.

[Ray]

Russia to revive army bases in three oceans

The Russian government intends to restore the military-technical support of their ships at the former military base in Cam Ranh (Vietnam), Lourdes (Cuba) and the Seychelles. So far, this is not about plans for a military presence, but rather the restoration of the crew resources. However, a solid contractual basis should be developed for these plans.

The intentions were announced on July 27 by the Russian Navy Commander Vice Admiral Viktor Chirkov. "At the international level, the creation of logistics points in Cuba, the Seychelles and Vietnam is being worked out,"
http://english.pravda.ru/russia/poli...a_army_base-0/

A rather intriguing report from the Pravda.

Anyone has an idea what's up?

There is a mention of an OAK missile being deployed in Cuba.

Any idea what it is?

[Entropy]

The Russians have discussed these "bases" before. This is really about rights to harbor, resupply and provide crew rest for Russian ships and so the Russians aren't really opening military "bases." This will allow Russian ships to deploy for longer periods and operate farther from their home ports.

As far as the missile goes, I have no idea. My Russian is very rusty, but the translation seems correct based on the Russian version of the article.

The newest Russian nuclear ballistic missile system is the Topol which means "Poplar" in Russian. Maybe Pravda got their trees mixed up. But even that doesn't make any sense - the Topol is an ICBM so there's no point in putting them in Cuba. And then there are the massive geopolitical ramifications of such a deployment.

No one else seems to have reported this missile deployment either. So, all in all, I think it's very likely that this is another case of Pravda not living up to its name....

[Bob's World]

We need to grow used to the idea that in a more balanced world there will be many nations working to secure the interests they see as vital to them.

Some will invite many larger nations to trade with them and to provide some aspect of their mutual security. For example, I can see where Vietnam would see nothing incongruous about having ships from US, Russian, Chinese and Indian navies all in port in Cam Ranh at the same time. Best to keep ones options open.

Some will go out into the world and ensure they have access to resources, markets and reliable nodes to sustain their security forces. A US sharing the benefits of a global market should recognize the benfits of sharing security duties for the access to those markets as well.

The US will remain the biggest dog in the pack for years to come, but our days of playing the lone wolf (or leader of a pack of lesser dogs subservient to our will and interests as we define them) are about over.

[carl]

What Russian professes they want to do and what they can do are two different things. They don't have much and unless they fix their demographic problem and become something other than a mafia state, they will have less in the future.

[slapout9]

Until Directed Energy Weapons become truly viable it is all about guided missiles. And regardless of what the long term outlook for Russia is, Putin will be a formidable adversary in the coming years for America. The more we push for a so called Missile Defense for Europe the more you will see a Russian Missile push back. Naval ports and Missiles....that is something that Russia has a long history with and they are good at it.

[carl]

Slap:

I am beginning to see your point about missiles.

Speaking of directed energy weapons, Information Dissemination recently had this about USN lasers.

http://www.informationdissemination....lk-lasers.html

The Russians seem to do missiles well but when talking about sea fighting that often means ships or planes, if only to carry the missiles to within launch range and to target them. In the Russians case they don't have much in the way of ships and planes. And since sea fighting is most often conducted by navies, and the Russian Navy has about the worst history of accomplishment of any navy I can think of, I can't see what Russia can do coming anywhere close to what they say.

[davidbfpo]

A quick search on Google found numerous reports of the USA having a facility for drones in the Seychelles, plus China wanting to have access for its navy. Not to overlook the close relationship India has with the Seychelles.

IIRC the USA has a possibly commercially run military satellite station there too.

So a Russian base or access to facilities will fit in very nicely.

[AdamG]

A Russian nuclear-powered attack submarine armed with long-range cruise missiles operated undetected in the Gulf of Mexico for several weeks and its travel in strategic U.S. waters was only confirmed after it left the region, the Washington Free Beacon has learned.

It is only the second time since 2009 that a Russian attack submarine has patrolled so close to U.S. shores.

http://freebeacon.com/silent-running/

[davidbfpo]

Even if Bill Gertz is the author of the cited article (having left The Washington Times), the language is colourful, almost as if the Akula was at Kings Bay, not in the Gulf of Mexico:

The latest submarine incursion in the Gulf...

Plus a lot of jigsaw pieces all being added together - to support more defence spending. Such as the P-8, which has struggled to be sold:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_P-8_Poseidon

Elsewhere on SWC and an ocean away in the South China Sea freedom of navigation for all is cited as under threat by China. The Russian Akula was just doing that, exercising in international waters; something of course the USN SSK never do of course.

Then Gertz adds:

A second, alarming air incursion took place July 4 on the West Coast when a Bear H strategic bomber flew into U.S. airspace near California and was met by U.S. interceptor jets.

Similar flights by Bear bombers have been reported in the UK, but when examined closely the 'airspace' was not territorial airspace, but the UK air defence and civil aviation area - a very different legal concept, which has no standing in international law.

Given Gertz's record for obtaining help from within officialdom, one can happily speculate whose best interests are served by this unconfirmed report.