The UK in Afghanistan

[davidbfpo]

Two soldiers died this week and that is the KIA figure today.

The number of British troops in Helmand will be reduced by around 500 between September and the end of the year....to around 9,000 troops...three of the brigade’s infantry companies, which number around 150 personnel, will only serve for three months...

Bye, bye USMC:

Meanwhile the size of the US force in Helmand will reduce from 20,000 US Marines to 7,000 by the end of October

This is "spin" or wishful thinking:

It is understood that ISAF numbers in Helmand will be boosted by Afghan security forces and that there will be no requirement for Britain to backfill the US drawdown.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-in-weeks.html

As previous posts have discussed the UK's presence in Helmand, let alone Afghanistan, has little to do with maintaining local security. As every day passes national reputation and how to leave without giving the appearance of the Taliban winning become the deciding factors.

I remain unconvinced that President Karzai and his motley coalition will give Helmand Province the priority for ANSF deployment that first the UK - with allies did - and then the USA, with two USMC brigades.

[JMA]

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

Two soldiers died this week and that is the KIA figure today.

Bye, bye USMC:

This is "spin" or wishful thinking:

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-in-weeks.html

As previous posts have discussed the UK's presence in Helmand, let alone Afghanistan, has little to do with maintaining local security. As every day passes national reputation and how to leave without giving the appearance of the Taliban winning become the deciding factors.

I remain unconvinced that President Karzai and his motley coalition will give Helmand Province the priority for ANSF deployment that first the UK - with allies did - and then the USA, with two USMC brigades.

When will an honest appraisal of where the reductions will leave the balance of power in Helmand be available?

[davidbfpo]

JMA asked:

When will an honest appraisal of where the reductions will leave the balance of power in Helmand be available?

Such an appraisal will not be placed in the public domain by the UK government. It may appear in US Congressional testimony or US "think tank" reporting. It is possible that a non-official British reviewer of the situation may appear, either an academic or journalist who can survive the reaction of the MoD.

I cannot readily think of a single analytical assessment of the UK in Helmand, let alone the balance of power appearing in public. Yes, we have embedded journalists writing and TV documentaries.

[JMA]

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

JMA asked:

Such an appraisal will not be placed in the public domain by the UK government. It may appear in US Congressional testimony or US "think tank" reporting. It is possible that a non-official British reviewer of the situation may appear, either an academic or journalist who can survive the reaction of the MoD.

I cannot readily think of a single analytical assessment of the UK in Helmand, let alone the balance of power appearing in public. Yes, we have embedded journalists writing and TV documentaries.

It seems that the military has an idea of where this is heading:

David Cameron warned that Afghanistan pullout could allow al-Qaeda to return

Quote:

Military commanders have warned the Prime Minister that Afghanistan’s future could be jeopardised with al-Qaeda returning to the country if foreign troops are withdrawn too quickly, senior sources have disclosed.

Do you think anyone cares about "Afghanistan's future"? ... or are they just intent on getting out of there ASAP?

[davidbfpo]

JMA asked:

Do you think anyone cares about "Afghanistan's future"? ... or are they just intent on getting out of there ASAP?

The UK government and all the main political parties remain committed to our current policy - which is to be the USA's most steadfast ally in Afghanistan. The moment American policy changes the UK will swiftly follow. Afghanistan's future and that of its citizens feature very low in political priorities; concerns over women's rights, education and other "advances" do affect a small cross-party minority, such as the Conservative MP Rory Stewart.

Yes there is a strategic assumption, which underpins not just UK policy, that the political and military presence stops Afghanistan being used by AQ. Arguing that "nation building" is under-way in 2012 is rather stale.

The biggest political obstacle to the UK leaving is how to manage the consequences of a Taliban victory - an observation from a Whitehall-Westminster watcher.

Secondly he posted:

It seems that the military has an idea of where this is heading

It is easy to suggest two big factors explain the military viewpoint: after the end of a direct combat role more cuts can be made to them and how internally all the losses, principally in blood, can be explained if the Taliban win and the Kabul regime falls.

[JMA]

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

JMA asked:

The UK government and all the main political parties remain committed to our current policy - which is to be the USA's most steadfast ally in Afghanistan. The moment American policy changes the UK will swiftly follow. Afghanistan's future and that of its citizens feature very low in political priorities; concerns over women's rights, education and other "advances" do affect a small cross-party minority, such as the Conservative MP Rory Stewart.

Yes there is a strategic assumption, which underpins not just UK policy, that the political and military presence stops Afghanistan being used by AQ. Arguing that "nation building" is under-way in 2012 is rather stale.

The biggest political obstacle to the UK leaving is how to manage the consequences of a Taliban victory - an observation from a Whitehall-Westminster watcher.

Secondly he posted:

It is easy to suggest two big factors explain the military viewpoint: after the end of a direct combat role more cuts can be made to them and how internally all the losses, principally in blood, can be explained if the Taliban win and the Kabul regime falls.

It's probably reasonable to assume that there will be a betrayal of the current Afghan "allies" on a parallel course as for Vietnam. One can hardly blame those in the Karzai regime for diverting a percentage of the "aid" money to purchasing retirement mansions and establishing big bank accounts in Dubai.

Anyone want to put money on this?

[JMA]

New Season of Our War is out. Episode One is now on YouTube:

Our War: Into the Hornet's Nest

Tonight - 27 Aug - 21.00 UK time - is episode 2 in BBC 3

[davidbfpo]

JMA,

Thanks for locating the YouTube link. The programme was very good, yes sad and left one wondering what the infantry company was doing - diverting the Taliban from hindering highway building and becoming a bullet & IED "magnet".

A few "armchair" points: the British RoE prevented firing on vehicles carrying the Taliban into position was left unexplained. The Taliban's preparation of deserted compounds with multiple IEDs and the British ability to move at night unhindered.

BBC News articles in support of the film; a three minute clip:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19315410

A British military operation in Helmand claimed two lives in the summer of 2010, including that of Capt Andrew Griffiths. His father, Brig Mike Griffiths, is the most senior serving officer to have lost a child in Afghanistan, and two years on, he uses his own experience of grief to advise visiting officers, whose job it is to break the news of deaths and injuries to Army families.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19243508

[JMA]

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

JMA,

Thanks for locating the YouTube link. The programme was very good, yes sad and left one wondering what the infantry company was doing - diverting the Taliban from hindering highway building and becoming a bullet & IED "magnet".

A few "armchair" points: the British RoE prevented firing on vehicles carrying the Taliban into position was left unexplained. The Taliban's preparation of deserted compounds with multiple IEDs and the British ability to move at night unhindered.

BBC News articles in support of the film; a three minute clip:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19315410

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19243508

David, watched the second episode last night live (using a UK proxy). Will watch for it to appear on YouTube.

Your comments are IMHO valid. This footage is circa 2010 so one sincerely hopes "things" have improved since.

[davidbfpo]

Last night's episode was not so grim, even if a deployment in 'Death Valley', between Gereshk and Sangin IIRC. The infantry platoons featured each took over a patrol base from a USMC company, on a tarmacked highway alongside the 'Green Zone'; initially they tried foot patrolling and had to change to vehicle-borne patrolling. The main enemy being IEDs and snipers.

The most significant segment came at the end. Following an IED killing a minibus full of locals en route to a wedding, even though it ignored signals to stop by the troops, the local Afghan attitude swiftly changed. Measured in friendly encounters and enrolling thirty military age males a day on biometrics, which IIRC led to three arrests including one prison escapee.

Oddly no there was no commentary on the accompanying ANSF, on patrol and inside the patrol bases. They appeared to be ANCOP, not ANA.

[JMA]

Originally Posted by JMA

New Season of Our War is out. Episode One is now on YouTube:

Our War: Into the Hornet's Nest

Tonight - 27 Aug - 21.00 UK time - is episode 2 in BBC 3

I note that this episode has been taken down on YouTube. Pity.

[JMA]

Originally Posted by JMA

I note that this episode has been taken down on YouTube. Pity.

The first episode is back up... for how long I don't know:

Our War: Into the Hornet's Nest

Plus the second episode:

Our War - Return To Death Valley

.

[TDB]

I watched the third episode last night, harrowing stuff. I've read Dead Men Risen and seen some of the clips of the contact which killed Mark Evison before. Seeing it in it's entirety was all the more gut wrenching. Powerful stuff indeed.

[davidbfpo]

TDB,

Yes the third episode was grim, especially as it was Lt. Mark Evison, of the Welsh Guards - whose diary was partly published shortly after his death by his mother. Three years on I just remember his criticism "mowing the lawn" and questioning the rational for their presence.

Worth reading his mother's recent interview too; she consented to the footage being shown:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...ghanistan.html

I have chosen one short passage, which is prefaced with:

But while public support for front-line soldiers has steadily grown, ignorance lingers about just what they face in Afghanistan.

(Then she speaks) Programmes like Our War are important,even if I find them very upsetting. They show the grittiness, the hands-on aspects of the war, exactly what is going on. There is still very hard fighting in Afghanistan.

[JMA]

Ok, Episode 3.

60mins was too long to deal with the death of Lt Mark Evison. There was too much trivia from troopies whose overly profane - and often inane - comment was used as fillers.

Having read the book and already seen the key footage there were no surprises except that shot of the little "shrine" 7 Platoon erected when they heard Evison had died. He meant something to his men.

This was folowed by the report that on that very night the Taliban gave the platoon base a buzz and the troopie said (something like): "They chose the wrong fooking night to have a buzz." Good to see the Brit spirit is alive and well.

Three years have passed so one assumes that the obvious tactical issues have been dealt with.

I wonder about the radio problems. Nothing seemed to work. Outrageous situation.

My final comment on this series is that once again the lack of operational continuity at platoon/company level has an obvious impact on field performance. Nothing will improve as the Brits are already reducing their numbers. Think this will be a war the Brits will want to forget.

[JMA]

Episode 3 now on YouTube:

Our War - The Lost Platoon

.

[davidbfpo]

Indeed, why would anyone do so? The link is to a blog on the UK DFID website by their top official in Helmand:http://blogs.fco.gov.uk/catrionalain...st-in-helmand/

It is well different and far too much "spin". Take this passage for example:

So what makes Helmand – only one of Afghanistan’s 34 Provinces different? Well one difference is that Helmand is the largest Province by geography.

Yes, but hardly anyone lives outside the Helmand Valley, better known as 'The Green Zone'. Not a word about poppy growing.

I couldn't resist the offer to give feedback and my comment is 'awaiting moderation':

Simple answer, no I will not invest in Helmand. Nor should my government. This campaign since 2006 has overall been a disaster for the UK and the local people – who have died in their thousands or had their homes destroyed.

Yes Helmand Province is large, but 90% plus of the people live in the ‘Green Zone’ and as recent footage has shown this means it is densely populated.

If the locals want democracy what happened in the six districts that do not have ‘simple democracy’ Which districts are they?

Even ISAF admit 90% of the Taliban fight within a few kilometres of their home; quite contrary to your passage ‘ This makes it much more difficult for the insurgency to present a credible alternative’. We may not like it, but the Taliban have become a rival government. Let alone the impact of the local, Pashtun culture and history of resistance to outsiders.

This is from DFID who spent cash on a children’s adventure park with a Ferris wheel, paid for water wells at the cost of US$100k each – after GIRoA took its fee – sorry bribes – and supplied farmers with ammonium nitrate in a chemical composition that enabled its use as an explosive.

Finally the conference in Kabul aims to ‘lock in’ outsiders, the people who will decide are the local people, who will they choose after 2014 GIRoA or the Taliban? You use the word ‘fragile’, better would be temporary.

[ganulv]

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

Yes, but hardly anyone lives outside the Helmand Valley, better known as 'The Green Zone'. Not a word about poppy growing.

I’m friends with a young Afghan man who has traveled all over Afghanistan and Pakistan with his father buying up bike parts for their shop in Kabul and the only place I have ever asked him about in Afghanistan that he has described as being so dangerous he would not want travel to or through it at this point is Helmand. Before I could ask why he said, “Because of the drug trade.”

[JMA]

Interesting book on Afghanistan:

Company Commander
by Major Russell Lewis MC - OC B Coy, 2 Para



His summary answering the question, "What have I learnt?"

What have I learnt? I have learnt that I don’t panic in a crisis situation. I have learnt what it is like to be in combat. I have learnt that you have got to keep calm because panicking really doesn’t help. I have learnt that six months is too long somewhere like this, with the conditions and the tempo the way they are. I have learnt that you have got to temper your expectations. I have learnt that people will surprise you in both a good and a bad way. I have learnt that combat is a great leveller; people’s true self comes out, you just can’t hide it. I have learnt that command is very lonely and that you have to make unpopular decisions. I have learnt what leadership really is.

Lewis, Russell (2012-06-07). Company Commander (p. 389). Random House UK. Kindle Edition.

Pity it took until he was a major to learn these basics...

(Any Brit readers know where to find his MC citation?)

[Granite_State]

Read that on a flight back from London a few weeks ago. Pretty good, gave me a look at a Helmand deployment that was the opposite of my own (which was pretty non-kinetic, way down south, counter-narcotics, a lot of needles in haystacks). 8-10 man patrols were our standard, seems like he and his "Toms" never went deep into the green zone with less than a company (-).