South China Sea and China

[Ray]

Jesus Saves!

In reality, the US Saves!

China, the Communist country, surprisingly also reluctantly subscribes to this - the US Saves whatever they (the Chinese) covet!

The Chinese being pseudo Communists may have not read Exodus 20:1-17

Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's house, or thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's wife, nor his manservant, nor his maidservant, nor his ox, nor his ass, nor any thing that is thy neighbour's.

[Ray]

On the issue that the Filipinos were not really concerned about China's action in the area Philippines claims as theirs, one Filipino sent me these images from Philippines

[Dayuhan]

The rallies last May drew a few hundred people in each of a few cities, after which attention went elsewhere. This country tends to have a short attention span on issues; the local expression is ningas cogon, referring to a brushfire: all fired up on something today, tomorrow the attention is elsewhere.

People are aware of the issues. A very few are very concerned, more are mildly concerned, most have other things to worry about. I could post a vigorous anti-China message on Facebook and probably have a few dozen "likes" in an hour. I doubt that the problem would be high on the priority list of any of the people clicking the button.

[Dayuhan]

Discussion of the proposed LCS presence in the South China Sea:

http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-b...asiatic-fleet/

America’s New Asiatic Fleet?

I’m a reluctant convert to the idea of stationing a detachment of Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs) in the South China Sea. The Pentagon has been flirting with such a deployment for some time, and it now appears the idea will become reality...

...Rowden espoused “aggressively fielding the LCS fleet in order to meet our vital war-fighting gaps and forward-deploy additional American flags on LCS halyards.”

Call it the Woody Allen principle of maritime strategy: ninety percent of life is just showing up.

I can see some point in showing the flag, and in showing it in a way that's fairly unobtrusive (relative to the appearance of major combatants). What it's all meant to accomplish, beyond reassuring allies, is another question. I don't see it deterring the Chinese from doing what they're doing.

[Ray]

Chinese Strategic Miscalculations in the South China Sea

China’s unilateral claims of sovereignty over the years to the South China Sea has made the majority of Chinese citizenry mistakenly believe that China does indeed own the entire area within the U-shaped line and that the line makes up China’s southern border.

However, newly discovered maps in 1904 dating from the Qing Dynasty do not show the Paracel and Spratlys Islands. Instead, it is Hainan Island that is depicted as China’s southern most border. Unfortunately, this U-shaped line is now very much like a bone in China’s throat that it cannot swallow or remove.

http://www.eastwestcenter.org/sites/...te/apb_181.pdf

[JMA]

Originally Posted by Ray

Chinese Strategic Miscalculations in the South China Sea

http://www.eastwestcenter.org/sites/...te/apb_181.pdf

Found an old map? That's an easy one... declare it a forgery.

Don't expect the Chinese to curb their expansion plans based on some old map!

.

[Ray]

Found an old map? That's an easy one... declare it a forgery.

Don't expect the Chinese to curb their expansion plans based on some old map!

Recipe for 'Peaceful Rise'?

[Ray]

Agreement on Guam transfer reflects U.S. urgency to respond to China
http://ajw.asahi.com/article/asia/china/AJ201202140040

[Ray]

Guam central to Pacific military operations

Among the news media tracking the U.S. military buildup on Guam is the People’s Daily Online, an organ of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing.

On its “People Forum” earlier this month was a discussion of how facilities at Andersen Air Force Base on the island were being hardened and air defense systems were being moved in to protect against Chinese attack.

“The American island of Guam is getting bomb proof shelters for aircraft, fuel and ammo supplies and vital equipment,” said one entry, which also pictured American B-52s sitting on a runway.

Guam would be central to American operations if the United States and China go to war because of miscalculations by either regarding Taiwan, developments on the Korean peninsula or access to the South China Sea, many defense and foreign analysts say.

http://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news...ations-101911/

[Ray]

The new Guam doctrine

A translation of both dimensions of the Obama doctrine would look like this: 'We're going to be here for a long time yet, but we are certainly ready to talk about new ways to run the neighbourhood.' Or to put it more formally: the new doctrine will link a continuing assertion of US military capability to a willingness to think new thoughts about Asia's security architecture and a concert of powers.

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...-doctrine.aspx

[Ray]

US Military Bases on Guam in Global Perspective

Officially, as of late 2008 (the last date for which the DoD has made such data public) over 150,000 troops and 95,000 civilian employees are massed in 837 US military facilities in 45 countries and territories, excluding Iraq and Afghanistan. There, the US military owns or rents 720,000 acres of land, and owns, rents or uses 60,000 buildings and manages structures valued at $145 billion. 4742 bases are located in the domestic United States. These official numbers are quite misleading as to the scale of US overseas military basing, however. That is because they not only exclude the massive buildup of new bases and troop presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, but also secret or unacknowledged facilities in Israel, Kuwait, the Philippines and many other places.

http://www.japanfocus.org/-catherine-lutz/3389

[Ray]

Philippines eyes greater US military presence

Manila (AFP) Dec 10, 2012

US and Philippine officials will meet this week to discuss expanding American presence in the Asian nation, a senior diplomat said, amid tensions with China over its claims to vast waters in the region....

In October, a Philippine official said a former US naval base in this country, facing the South China Sea could play a key role as a hub for American ships as Washington moves to strengthen its presence in the Asia-Pacific.

Tensions with China have increased since April following a standoff between Philippine and Chinese ships over South China Sea shoal which both claim as their territory.

Sorreta said China should not be alarmed by the effort to improve Philippine-US ties.

But, he stressed, "with our without the Americans, we will take our stand".

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Ph...sence_999.html

[Dayuhan]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch...

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/618...r-in-tubbataha

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/us-navy-fin...073407618.html

A US minesweeper has somehow managed to run aground on the Tubbataha reef, a protected marine reserve. Getting a lot of press here. US authorities are pointing to the possibility of inaccurate maps, but people still wonder how a modern naval vessel failed to detect the presence of a rather large expanse of shallow coral.

If this is true...

The Tubbataha marine park superintendent, Angelique Songco, said Monday that park rangers had warned the USS Guardian by radio that it was nearing the reef, but the ship captain insisted they raise their complaint with the US embassy.

It means this old joke more or less came true...

US Ship: Please divert your course 0.5 degrees to the south to avoid a collision.

CND reply: Recommend you divert your course 15 degrees to the South to avoid a collision.

US Ship: This is the Captain of a US Navy Ship. I say again, divert your course.

CND reply: No. I say again, you divert YOUR course!

US Ship: THIS IS THE AIRCRAFT CARRIER USS CORAL SEA*, WE ARE A LARGE WARSHIP OF THE US NAVY. DIVERT YOUR COURSE NOW!!

CND reply: This is a lighthouse. Your call.

It's not quite as funny in reality, and if the investigation now said to be in progress reveals that the ship's captain actually did ignore warnings that he was entering a no-navigation zone and risked running onto a reef one would expect some consequences.

[Ray]

Philippines 'to take South China Sea row to court'

The Philippines says it will challenge Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea at a UN tribunal.

Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said the decision came after Manila had exhausted "almost all political and diplomatic avenues" to resolve the maritime dispute with Beijing.

He said he hoped arbitration would help bring a "durable solution" to the row.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21137144

[Dayuhan]

We got no ships, no missiles, no aircraft... deploy the lawyers!

[Ray]

With no nothing but lawyers that possibly is the best option available.

One wonders if lying supine and impotent surrendering sovereignty is the better option that is suggested.

[Dayuhan]

Surrendering sovereignty over what? Hard to surrender what you never had.

Of course there's not much else they can do; capacity here is zero and the US is not going to get involved in a fight over Scarborough shoal, or for that matter over Pag-asa island. It wouldn't surprise me if China decided at some point to expel the Philippine garrison on Pag-asa, and I think they could probably get away with it.

The arbitration is probably the only option for the Philippines, but it still seems a bit pathetic, especially since the arbitration body in question has no enforcement power whatsoever.

[Ray]

Surrendering sovereignty over what? Hard to surrender what you never had.

Good to know that Philippines is not a sovereign nation!

And that never had what they had!

And good to know that they allow others to enjoy their hospitality when such people are sold to China!

Very tolerant people, indeed!

[Dayuhan]

Has the Philippines ever exercised meaningful sovereignty over the areas currently in dispute?

[Ray]

Depends on what you mean meaningful.

If not meaningful, do elaborate what you mean by that?

China claims Taiwan. Does she have a meaningful sovereignty over Taiwan.

What about the meaningful sovereignty China exhibits over islands that she claims?

Does China have any meaningful sovereignty over the Japanese islands China claims?