Syria under Bashir Assad: crumbling now?

[davidbfpo]

Although I have a reasonable mind map of Syria these maps really help, especially for showing regime supportive areas:http://www.understandingwar.org/pres...ing-insurgency

Or a BBC edition with less detail:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19285076

[davidbfpo]

First from a "lurker" familiar with the region:

The West is reading more than a local might into the current conflict in Tripoli. The bottom line is that perhaps too much of what is happening in Lebanon is being seen from the viewpoint of a western based position that sees Assad as bad, and the rebels (any rebels) as good. Labelling them this way may help to make it come true. But it does not mean that it is true in the first place.

Syria is still heading toward a Lebanese style civil war. This will not be to the benefit of “western” security.

Secondly Professor Paul Rogers writes an overview, which ends on an optimistic note re the new UN Mission:

For the moment, however, rhetoric still holds sway. A particularly bad example is the demand from western sources that the experienced Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi - the successor of Kofi Annan as United Nations-Arab League envoy in Syria - should agree that the regime gives up power. Brahimi, whose willingness to assume the task of mediation is one of the very few hopeful recent indicators, is far too able to accede to a course that would stymie his mission before it starts.

If Brahimi can engineer a provisional settlement, in the process building on private concerns in Washington and other capitals, that would create some hope of a genuine halt to Syria's descent. The best prospect now is a least-worse option, and even that could only be achieved against great odds. Without it, there is a real risk that the war in Syria could last years rather than months.

He makes a point on Syria's chemical weapons:

Syria decided on developing a chemical-weapon arsenal to counter Israel's unique nuclear capability, a choice reinforced in the wake of Israel's destruction of so many Syrian aircraft in Lebanon in the mid-1980s. The Syrian chemical force is thus configured with Israel in mind, but that does not diminish its potential for other uses if the Assad regime seems about to disintegrate.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...-and-diplomacy

[Bill Moore]

This Matt VanDyke fellow is an interesting character who obviously sports a large pair. I'm comfortable he is a freedom fighter (as least in his mind), but can't help to wonder if these activities are also supporting the Jihadists. Thoughts?

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012...ia-kickstarter

New Kickstarter Pitch: ‘Join the Syrian Uprising’

Their next project: go to Syria, an exceptionally dangerous place for journalists, activists or human beings in general. But they’re not exactly journalists or documentarians. Their Kickstarter pitch: “Two freedom fighters from the Libyan revolution join the Syrian uprising against Assad and capture it all on film.” Wait, what?

Is this a Kickstarter to crowdfund the revolution or to crowdfund a film about the revolution? VanDyke’s answer skirts the line. “The purpose of this project is to film in support of the rebels,” he tells Danger Room, “we do not anticipate participating in combat this time.”

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/...b-spr?ref=card

Interesting video, and you'll note on his website extensive use of social media.

http://www.matthewvandyke.com/

Under facts:

I gave 8 months of my life to the cause of freedom in Libya, including nearly 6 months in a Libyan prison. I served honorably and with dignity, giving everything I had to the cause. It is both distressing and appalling that after I returned to the United States I found Joel Simon attempting to tarnish my reputation and service with outright lies and distortions in his blog to cover up his own unprofessional conduct in my case in order to save his job as executive director at the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ).

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Bill Moore

This Matt VanDyke fellow is an interesting character who obviously sports a large pair. I'm comfortable he is a freedom fighter (as least in his mind), but can't help to wonder if these activities are also supporting the Jihadists. Thoughts?

He seems exceedingly fond of himself and his self-image, and I have to wonder whether the intent of the project is to promote the Syrian revolution or to promote Matt VanDyke.

[Bill Moore]

He seems exceedingly fond of himself and his self-image, and I have to wonder whether the intent of the project is to promote the Syrian revolution or to promote Matt VanDyke.

There are few wall flowers that are able to promote anything effectively. Admittedly some people are dragged kicking and screaming into the spot light, while others are trying to find ways to stay in the middle of it. Still it seems many successful people in the public sector have exceedingly large egos which may in fact be annoying, but I suspect that is also what gives them the drive to do what they do while others sit in on the side lines and criticize and claim it can't be done. Several senior military officers also carefully craft their imagine and you wonder what their priorities are sometime, but at the end of the day, at least to some extent this may be necessary. Still agree that those seeking fame are annoying and it does bring into question their motives, yet if their effective does it really matter?

[Dayuhan]

Originally Posted by Bill Moore

There are few wall flowers that are able to promote anything effectively. Admittedly some people are dragged kicking and screaming into the spot light, while others are trying to find ways to stay in the middle of it. Still it seems many successful people in the public sector have exceedingly large egos which may in fact be annoying, but I suspect that is also what gives them the drive to do what they do while others sit in on the side lines and criticize and claim it can't be done. Several senior military officers also carefully craft their imagine and you wonder what their priorities are sometime, but at the end of the day, at least to some extent this may be necessary. Still agree that those seeking fame are annoying and it does bring into question their motives, yet if their effective does it really matter?

I guess that depends on what they're effective at... at changing conditions on the ground, or at advancing their own careers.

I can identify with the plan to some extent; long ago in my deranged youth I attempted something very similar, and I'd readily admit that there were a few dreams of fame in the mix then. Of course I didn't become famous or change the world, possibly because I wasn't much good at self-promotion, though that was admittedly more difficult in the pre-internet world. At my current age I'd rather sit on the sidelines and... question, if not criticize.

I wouldn't say it couldn't be done, or even that it shouldn't be done, but I do suspect that the purpose - whether to advance a revolution or a career - is likely to have a great deal of influence on the final product. We shall see.

Still, the level of self-promotion on that site is to me well over the top. If he gets himself killed, well, that's his choice. Hope he doesn't get anyone else killed in the process.

[jcustis]

Anyone thinking Jack Idema like I am?

[davidbfpo]

Originally Posted by jcustis

Anyone thinking Jack Idema like I am?

Not a name I'm familiar with, so I checked on Google to find jack was dead, but for those who seek some knowledge check this 'disputed' Wiki:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Idema

[ganulv]

Originally Posted by jcustis

Anyone thinking Jack Idema like I am?

This guy seems more stable and less colorful to me.

[Wyatt]

his site is pretty self aggrandizing but still entertaining. The best part was how he contributed 8 months of his life to the libyan revolution but 6 months were spent as a non starter in jail.

If he wants to be a war tourist go ahead. Nice thing about doing it yourself is you can come and go when you please, but you have no support. Hope he doesnt feel entitled to sof help if he's about to get his head chopped off.

i may be biased as one of my favorite books of all time is "my war gone by i miss it so" by anthony lloyd

[Surferbeetle]

H/T to Dave Dilegge to linking to this article in this morning's roundup.

Sinan Ulgen is the chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank EDAM and a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe.

The National Interest, From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_National_Interest

Turkey's Syria Conundrum, Sinan Ulgen | August 24, 2012, The National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commenta...conundrum-7385

Syria used to be the poster child for Ankara’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy. At the peak of their rapprochement, Turkey and Syria were holding joint cabinet meetings and talking about spearheading a common market in the Middle East. Then the Arab wave of reforms reached Damascus. The relationship turned hostile as the Syrian leadership resisted reforms and engaged in large-scale massacres to subdue the opposition.

With this policy of direct confrontation, Ankara not only strove to obtain the moral high ground. It also sought to precipitate the fall of Assad while building a relationship with the future leadership of Syria by heavily investing in the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Syrian National Council.

Today, this policy of forcefully pushing the regime change agenda in Syria is under criticism domestically as some of the risks of a post-Assad world are becoming clearer.

The fear in Turkey is of Syria’s disintegration into ethnically and religiously purer ministates, with a Kurdish entity in the north, an Alawite entity in the west and a Sunni entity in the rest. The Kurdish opposition’s recent unilateral power grab in northeastern Syria rekindled Turkish concerns about the emergence of an independent Kurdish entity linking the north of Iraq to the north of Syria.

[CWOT]

Yesterday, I started a 1- question poll reference the continually evolving situation in Syria.

Should the U.S. and Europe openly support the Syrian resistance?

What do you think? Vote here at this link if interested:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/ZRS5JDG

I'll post the results of all responses here later in the week.

[Dayuhan]

"Support" is a pretty broad word, the answers would be more revealing if the question were more specific.

"Support" as in verbal support, non-lethal material support, lethal material support, air support, boots on the ground? Big span there.

[davidbfpo]

I voted yesterday and added a comment to another discussion board:

We should acknowledge that the public in the West, especially in the USA, has a very short memory and is rarely patient for the "long haul". Today I listened on the BBC to a respected SME on Syria, who commented that the Assad regime could last far longer.

We are often told external, maybe Western help (lethal or non-lethal), is a "game changer" and will provide the "magic" to end a conflict quickly. With the recent exception of Libya, where the end result remains unclear, our help invariably last decades.

Are you prepared to help for years? Incidentally the USA, where most of this board's members reside, tried to help in the Lebanese Civil War, paying a high price and who ended that war - Syria. Makes you pause to think.

[davidbfpo]

I've seen the limited MSM news clips of regime aircraft being fired upon, so it was interesting to find this blogsite with an array of film clips and links to commentaries:http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/20...sa-7-anti.html

Plus the always valuable CJ Chivers:http://cjchivers.com/post/3061244157...o-air-capacity

[davidbfpo]

Paul Smyth, a SWC member, has written this piece for CNN and he concludes:

Calls for a NFZ in Syria must not ignore reality. The inconvenient truth is that Syria is not Iraq, Kosovo or especially Libya. The considerable logistic, operational and command challenges faced must not be overlooked or dismissed.
These obstacles may not be insurmountable, but the limitations of a NFZ remain, especially as a means of protecting the Syrian people or bringing the rebels battlefield victory.

Link:http://news.sky.com/story/980758/syr...zone-deception

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to CWOT via Twitter, a short photo sequence and clearly not a "level playing field" in Aleppo:http://www.globalpost.com/photo-gall...-aleppo-photos and a rather grim three minute video clip:http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/n...ren-death-toll

[JMA]

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

Paul Smyth, a SWC member, has written this piece for CNN and he concludes:

Link:http://news.sky.com/story/980758/syr...zone-deception

David, Paul Smyth appears to be trapped in the historical paradigm of how to take aircraft out of the equation.

He correctly identifies the limitations of trying to enforce a NFZ through the threat of airborne interdiction but fails to apply some simple lateral thinking.

The deterrent of a NFZ is that if aircraft enter the designated NFZ area they will be engaged. This is the problem, to enforce this you need the costly means to instantly react.

There is of course a simpler method.

The response to breach of the NFZ does not have to be targeted at the particular aircraft... does it?

What about targeting the originating airfield? Doesn't have to be immediate. Crater that runway as soon as possible.

Helicopters are a more difficult proposition as are artillery weapons. Again simple.

If helicopters or artillery are used then instead of playing cat and mouse just have a list of military targets which can be dealt with sequentially in response to NFZ breaches or the use of artillery.

Why does the most complicated method always receive the most consideration?

.

[davidbfpo]

The latest IISS Strategic Comment, which ends with:

While direct intervention in Syria remains remote, the issue will remain a burning one for Syrian opposition leaders and Western, Turkish and Arab policymakers as the toll increases. Without a legal UN mandate and solid Arab cover, the practical and strategic risks may well outweigh humanitarian considerations. Tragically, the longer they wait to intervene, the stronger the case for intervention will be - but the costs will also be greater.

I'd missed this aspect of a no-fly zone:

Syrian coastal defences would need first to be nullified. (They boast, in particular, SS-C-5 Stooge (Bastion) supersonic anti-ship missile coastal defence missile batteries supplied by Russia within the last two years.)

Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...d-but-distant/

[davidbfpo]

A rather different glimpse into Syria:

In the closing pages of his book, (Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to the Uprising) Stephen Starr describes a social system constructed on a lack of law and order, which is designed to instil fear. In this current crisis which is also an identity crisis, the author ponders the fate of the Syrian silent majority and the role they have to play.

Here is an example, albeit from 2010:

A staffer at a private bank from Lattakia told me in 2010 that when his brother knocked down a pedestrian in a car accident on a Damascus street he fled the capital for a month while his family attempted to sort out the issue. His family paid money to the family of the deceased. The state was not involved in this as#pect of governance and the brother faced no legal judgment for his crime. Law and justice are realms so weak, corrupt and disin#genuous in the state system that Syrians have rejected them in serious matters; they are forced to govern themselves; they can place no trust in the state.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/stephen...ising%E2%80%99