I wondered what the basis was for these comments:
Maybe Afghanistan is different, but in my experience US ambassadors don't typically have much contact with ordinary citizens of the countries in which they are posted.“There’s a new spirit out there” among ordinary Afghans, said Crocker. While intangible, the high hopes and lofty aspirations of today’s Afghans—especially among youth and women—may be the most auspicious sign of Afghanistan’s future potential.
I also wonder about the positive comments made about the ANA... there seem to be widely varying opinions in circulation, some saying the ANA and ANP are rapidly building into capable forces, some saying the exact opposite. Based on admittedly non-scientific observation, the higher on the administrative food chain the person making the comments stands, the more positive the comments seem to be. That would seem a point of worry, if you're cynical.
I also have to wonder about the basis for the opinion that another major terrorist attack would likely be planned in the Af'/Pak region, rather than in, say, Yemen or Somalia or Egypt or Western Europe. It may indeed be so, but it would be interesting to know the reasoning or evidence behind that opinion.
I do think that an American withdrawal from Afghanistan would increase the likelihood of major terrorist action, mainly because AQ desperately needs to have the US out there attacking and ideally occupying Muslim nations. If we deprive them of that they will try to provoke us again. I don't see that as a reason to stay in Afghanistan, just as a reason to expect what's coming, try to prevent it and prepare responses that do not involve feeding AQ with the means they require to thrive.
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