Carl,
My personal opinion is total stalemate. Even back in the 80s when we gave the DRC USN swift ships to patrol lake Kivu, supposedly against Rwandan trade, all the Zairian government in Kinshasa did was complain. They had the USG to back all that whining though.

M23 has roughly 1,000 men, women and children. You can't hold Goma and travel on foot or jeep to Bukavu and take it too (and then hold it). Running through a small city and declaring it yours is strange. Not sure how this all pans out but I can't see approx. 500 staying in Goma and holding it while the other 500 march to Bukavu and take it, and, hold it. At that point you have little left to walk onward to K-town or Lubumbashi, or wherever.

I like this passage from M-A's links. Great idea full of thought, but the current aid suspensions from most of us is so minuscule that it's not even worth thinking about. If the USG turned off the 2 million this year that would hurt. So instead, we turned off 200K in military-related aid. Geez that must of hurt

If international donors and African mediators persist in managing the crisis rather than solving it, it will be impossible to avoid such repetitive cycles of rebellions in the Kivus and the risk of large-scale violence will remain. Instead, to finally resolve this conflict, it is essential that Rwanda ends its involvement in Congolese affairs and that the reconstruction plan and the political agreements signed in the Kivus are properly implemented. For these things to happen Western donors should maintain aid suspension against Rwanda until the release of the next report of the UN group of experts, in addition to issuing a clear warning to the Congolese authorities that they will not provide funding for stabilisation and institutional support until the government improves political dialogue and governance in both the administration and in the army in the east, as recommended by Crisis Group on several previous occasions.