Pakistani internal security (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

It is easy to argue that the FATA will only change if Pakistani national policy changes, notably that political will is apparent and state institutions - notably the military - respond.

We know that the FATA has traditionally been semi-independent from national, Pakistani rule. There are those who argue that tradition and customs have evaporated since 9/11, mainly through fear and killing anyone who did not share the Jihadist viewpoint.

The bigger question is IMHO could the people and local tribes change - without changes in Pakistan?

[davidbfpo]

An interesting, if puzzling Reuters report:

Pakistan's Taliban, one of the world's most feared militant groups, are preparing for a leadership change that could mean less violence against the state but more attacks against U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan, Pakistani military sources said.

Link:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8B50G920121206

Just 'what the doctor ordered"? Or what the Pakistani military & ISI want the world to believe?

Reuters interviewed several senior Pakistan military officials as well as tribal elders and locals during a three-day trip with the army in South Waziristan last week, getting rare access to an area that has been a virtual no-go zone for journalists since an army offensive was launched in October 2009.

Pakistan Taliban commanders did not respond to repeated requests for comment on the possible leadership change.

I do stress puzzling!

[davidbfpo]

A rather optimistic headline for a good article on Aljazeera, although the focs is on internal Pakistani matters:http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/fea...m_medium=tweet

In the past, it was easy for the Pakistani military to control different groups because of tribal and ideological divisions, but now these differences are proving to be a disadvantage because the groups often fight each other over influence and tribal allegiances.

From my faraway vantage point there is influence upon the Pakistani Taliban (PTT), but not control. If there was control I'd be curious how murdering a senior, elected politician in NWFP and murdering twenty tribal levies fits in.

[omarali50]

One step forward, two steps back. It seems there is a new deal with Uncle Sam. It also seems that the army wants a new army-backed regime of its choice (the two facts may be related). Anyway, i have an article about Pakistan up at 3quarksdaily.com

http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...tan-.html#more

I dont think the state is about to wither away. But its definitely withering

[davidbfpo]

Omarali50,

Good article, but I have long suspected all of the Pakistani state lacks the will to win over its opponents. Nor am I convinced many of the state's instruments of coercion have the capability.

That is without factoring in the effect of the terrorism within.

[davidbfpo]

An ICG Report 'Pakistan: Countering Militancy in PATA':http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/F...mpaign=mremail

From the summary:

While the militants continue to present the main physical threat, the military’s poorly conceived counter-insurgency strategies, heavy-handed methods and failure to restore responsive and accountable civilian administration and policing are proving counter-productive, aggravating public resentment and widening the gulf between PATA’s citizens and the state. Meanwhile neither the federal nor the KPK provincial government is fully addressing the security concerns of residents.

The summary does have some strange passages, for e.g.:

Efforts to revive a shattered economy, once heavily dependent on tourism, have
also faltered....

Until Pakistani politicians at provincial and national level show some will to get changes made with military agreement nothing changes sadly.

[Ray]

I have a different take.

The militants, though are going hammer and tongs against the establishment, is actually a handmaiden of the Army and the ISI. It is well known that it is Pakistan's 'strategic tool' to create a suitable situation for Pakistan in Afghanistan and to bleed India by a thousand cuts without going to war and earning the ire of the world community.

It is also a convenient cover for Pakistan Army actions as was seen in Kargil, where it was said by Pakistan that the incursions were by jihadis and it turned out later to be Pakistan Army regulars! Same was done in 1947 (tribal), 1965 (Op Gibraltar) also.

Pakistan Army is well aware that the US will have to quit Afghanistan one day or the other. It requires to create a favourable environment for Pakistan and the militants alone can do it for them. In return, the Army has to allow the militants their space in the badlands of NW Frontier where their writ has always been paramount.

The outcry over US Drone attack is mere cosmetic. It is required to please the militants and at the same time, allow the US to establish a conducive atmosphere where the militants do not become too powerful, while at the same time blame the Great White Satan for the 'evil designs' and get the militants to a new high for more chaos in Afghanistan to secure the base for the future.

In so far as the militant activities in mainland Pakistan, it is ideal to keep the civil Govt in check and discredit them wherein the Pak Army appears the sole saviour. The current chaos is an example where there is a total breakdown of civil administration with all instruments, to include the Supreme Court, of the so called democracy in Pakistan ganging up against the civil Govt.

The militants in mainland also serve a purpose in the temporal warring that signatures Islam - the Sunni Shia divide. It is an ideal way to reduce the influence and numbers of the Shia community, Pakistan having totally made other minorities irrelevant to Pakistan.

These are very basic thoughts.

The bon homie between the Pak Army and the ISI and the militants, who are basically terrorists has method in its madness.

The Pakistan Army's motto is in Arabic:Iman, Taqwa, Jihad fi Sabilillah
A follower of none but Allah, The fear of Allah, Jihad for Allah.

In so far as the Pakistan economy goes, this is what the Pakistani newspaper has to say.

At the end of May 2012, Pakistan’s total public debt (external and domestic) stood at Rs 11.932 trillion against Rs 9.969 trillion during the corresponding period of last year, depicting an increase of 19.7 percent or Rs2.01 trillion in one year, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said.

Pakistan’s total obligations at the end of May 2012 in dollars terms stood at about $125.5 billion and the figure is ballooning day by day.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-New...pc-in-one-year

It maybe said that the collapse of Pakistan is not in the interest of the neighbourhood be it for India or Afghanistan.

But one wonders how one could save Pakistan when it is a bundle of contradictions, chaos and internecine warfare!