Firn,
No worries on time, the conversation is good and moves at it's own pace.
Thought this article was interesting and it seems to speak to our global adventures in a variety of fields:
Learning to Create the Perfect Cup of Coffee, By MATT RICHTEL, Published: December 31, 2012, NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/02/di...general&src=me
---------The essence of good espresso, of good coffee in general, revolves around three numbers: the amount of quality dry coffee used, the amount of time water flows through it and the amount of coffee that comes out the other end. When the ratio is right, the process extracts the best flavor. If it is wrong, the good flavor never surfaces or is watered down. A mistake in seconds or grams, I am coming to learn, is the difference between something wonderful and awful.
Mr. Baca explains that you have to experiment to find just the right balance of these three elements for each coffee machine and coffee grind, and then replicate them. He has tested the machinery at Sightglass and determined that we want to use 17 grams of high-end coffee and run water for 25 seconds to yield about 30 grams of coffee.
I would agree. As we have discussed, Jeremy Grantham has been providing some thoughtful 'realtime' analysis on this and continues to do so. Along these lines, I received a copy of James J. O'Donnell's 'The Ruin of the Roman Empire' for the holidays. I find it to be very well written with some excellent insights into economics, governance, war, and the human condition in general. Who is your European Econo-history author?Originally Posted by Firn
To be honest it is also a bit amused to read things like Europe: Burnt and abandoned when you too had a great ride in the stock markets. I did of course not match the DAX, as I had invested more broadly and bonds were a drag but it was a fine year indeed. While some companies did cut the dividends, sometimes completely, the earnings are still strong compared to the price in many instances. A very high ratio of 75% in stocks payed off also in asset growth while I personally invested more with an eye on dividends*. Of course one should not be fooled by success so I have to think if I have to adjust something. Sadly I could not balance away a high percentage of the capital gains by selling stocks at a loss so I will have to do an additional contribution on the budget front.Newspaper article titles can be, shall we say, 'eye-catching'. The article itself was meat & potatoes analysis to me, but I also keep in the back of my mind the 'micro' (with macro implications) - UK in or out of the EU question that is playing out in the UK media, as well as the macro East & West economic convergence theme being examined.
Equities are fun and familiar, yet it's always good to gain additional perspective. Sheldon Natenberg's book Option Volatility and Pricing has been/continues to be a very thoughtful/exceptional look at things. Derivatives are an exotic & theoretical tool for me at this point, even after a number of years of thinking about them. Bonds are an even further bridge. I still rely on bond index funds for diversification. Any suggestions regarding bond books? Perhaps I will have to look at the FT Guides for bonds...I have some on finance, risk modeling, options, and forex and find them all to be insightful and helpful for my equities focus. School is always good...but i find that i still gotta keep exercising my brain cell in order to survive out here in the retail trading & investing world. Successfully running money out in the professional world has to be another order of magnitude leap...
Going back to the coffee analogy, overall I think much of life is about quality, timing, and a bit of luck. 08' - '12 has been very educational and I made a profit for that time period, primarily on quality Euro stocks. I hope to continue to do so.
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