I think you need to look beyond just mere possession of a firearm.
The "barrier to entry" for a UK sourced active shooter attack is significant. A successful active shooter style attack, be it by a group or a lone-wolf, requires at least:
- some degree of training and familiarization with firearms;
- multiple firearms;
- ample supply of ammunition
Procuring these things in the UK significantly raises the risk of exposure for any active shooter plot.
I would also imagine the price of firearms on the UK black market is high - seeing as how the supply is low, and much of the demand would probably be from people in the narcotics trade who have the funds to pay a premium for weapons.
Obviously I have made assumptions here - but I believe they are fair ones, and the impression I get is that a homegrown active shooter style plot sourced from within the UK has significant risk of exposure and financial costs.
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