A veritable deluge of commentary today on Mali, plus Algeria and the effects way beyond the Sahel. Late in the day I have a couple that are worth reading.
Citing the International Crisis Group's regional analyst (Marc's colleague):Link:http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_15860/cont...tguid=5y6vdwVXThis is linked to the Libyan conflict, it's linked to the Mali conflict, it's linked to 50 years of struggle by the Tuareg, it's linked to 20 years of struggle in Algeria...A security response is at best a partial response. Until a robust political, humanitarian and economic effort is implemented, the security effort won't solve these problems,
For once, even if writing from the USA, a Mauritanian activist blogger; with a fascinating context and some stinging passages, especially on Western naivety. In summary:One wonders if the French military and those back in Paris realise thisMali’s problems did not start with the fall of Libya’s Qadhafi. They started even before it gained independence from France. A diverse set of ethnic groups were forced to coexist without much thought of the immense potential for conflict caused by that arrangement. France’s 25th hour short-legged attempt at Shock and Awe, is potentially a doomed effort because it is a decade late. Relying on inept militaries, and hoping to win a guerilla warfare without a credible strategy is a defeat waiting to happen. A decade into wars of pacification, Western nations should resist the urge to fight in yet another war without fully thinking through the consequences– potentially disastrous. None of this is an argument to look the other way on the spread of Jihadism, it is a call to think, then act decisively. Too much is at stake.The African Union's previously over-riding principle, before Sudan's split comes back:The skeleton of an untested idea became a doctrinal principle in France’s Operation Serval: we will stop the Jihadis, but the Africans will have to go north and defeat the enemy. The notion that an ECOWAS force with the backing of the African Union, and the necessary paperwork from the UN Security Council is a recipe for disaster. Rotten and corrupt militaries, commanded by equally corrupt leaders cannot be a credible partner once the shooting starts.Link:http://dekhnstan.wordpress.com/2013/...in-the-making/The other principle complicating the matter is Africa’s biggest taboo. Today, no one is willing to recognize that Mali, like many most of Africa, is an artificial construct.
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