Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[M-A Lagrange]

Now that's an opinion.

What you call "fact" is impossible to prove for the time being, so where do you get the insight that it's a "fact" from?

First:
The possibility of a failure exist: it is a fact. If you have 90% to win, it still remains 10% you loose. It's basic math...
The "fact: it will happen" is an opinion and is for the time being impossible to prove.

My insight is that asking the UN or/an the AU to conduct a war or a stabilisation mission is a receipy for failure. And to come to that opinion, I have several historical exemples in the subregion: Darfur is one of them.

Now my point was that Mali is not Afghanistan or Iraq. The context in Mali is far different from those 2 exemples. This to say that engaged troops in Mali, at the moment, do not face the same risk.

Second:
The impact of a failure is always bigger than expected. There is a tendency to lower the strategic impact of a failure. In the case of Mali this will open a new transborder and transcontinental space to armed groups that western and eastern powers are not really willing to allow to exist. This will impact the force equilibrium in the subregion and increase destabilization in other weakened countries... (the domino effect does exist despite the fact it is over rated).

Does that mean that an half success is not enough (military success for France and Chad but complete colaps of the State in Mali after the French withdraw)... Never said that. But I disagree with the idea that a complete failure (no complete military success part from freeing several cities during few weeks and reinforcement of the radical Islamists because of a repression against Tuaregs by Malian State) will have a limited impact that will not go out of Malian borders.

Finaly:
What is your opinion Fuch?

[Fuchs]

The impact of a failure is always bigger than expected. There is a tendency to lower the strategic impact of a failure.

(...)

Finaly:
What is your opinion Fuch?

I doubt the "tendency" and I'm sure the "always" is utterly wrong.
Evidence A: Domino theory # lost Vietnam war.
Case closed. "always" was by far over the top.


I personally believe the Salafism/Wahhabism/AQ thing is irrelevant in the epitome of a desert, and not much more relevant a slightly bit to the south. Moreover, the Christian majority (with regional/animism influence as well, no doubt) to the south of Mali means the maximum expansion of the crooks doesn't even reach to the South Atlantic.


In other words;
Mali may disappear or declare war on my country; I wouldn't have the slightest impact on my daily life.

Save for an uneasiness about heights I really don't have much fear, and I certainly wasn't infected by the hysterical hyping of Mali. The newspaper kiosk on the street corner with its tobacco wares is more of a problem.

[Bill Moore]

Not a new development, but this article goes in more depth than most.

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2013/0....html?spref=tw

Jihadists and Latin American drug traffickers merge

He explains to the reporter: "During the last decade, Latin American cartels created new routes in Africa to transport cocaine and synthetic drugs to Europe and, to a lesser degree, to the United States. All of the continent is affected by drug trafficking, from South Africa to the Magreb countries. Independent research centers --like the CF2R and specialized institutions within the UN or in the European Union -- tried to alert the politicians. They weren't successful.

"It didn't take long to see the results. The drug trafficking gangrene infected the majority of the West Africa governments and established contact with radical Islamic groups. Today, we are faced with a new, very explosive phenomenon; "narco jihadists."

[davidbfpo]

This may indicate at least one African leader is impatient with other nations:

Chad's President Idriss Deby appealed to West African leaders on Wednesday to urgently speed up deployment of their forces to northern Mali where Chadian and French forces are locked in bitter fighting with al Qaeda-linked rebels. Chad's contingent of some 2,400 troops has borne the brunt of battles with die-hard Islamists holed up in the Adrar des Ifoghas mountains..most African units remain in southern Mali...

Link:http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article...30227?irpc=932

The Chadian military have been reported as being professional and well versed in fighting in such conditions - unlike some of the others who IMHO will prefer to remain in comfort.

How the ECOWAS contribution can become a UN mandated peacekeeping force is beyond me, this is an enforcement mission. ECOWAS want others to pay them, step forward the UN.

[KingJaja]

David,

Debby owes his presidency to the French, so he was very enthusiastic about committing troops to Mali.

Having said that, other African presidents don't want to be stuck with the Malian "tar baby" - and they are happy for the "highly competent Chadian forces" to do the bulk of the fighting.

(PS: This isn't a solely "African" phenomenon, European nations do it, a lot).

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Andrew Lebovich on Twitter for identifying this NY Review of Books:http://www.nybooks.com/articles/arch...gination=false

Andrew's comment:

This is some very interesting Mali reporting from Joshua Hammer, raises some questions, confirms a few things...My biggest question with the Hammer piece is about some of the sourcing for specific claims.

[davidbfpo]

A Le Monde article which has promise, but disappoints. That aside it does explain what is happening in parts of Northern Mali:

Those who have had the opportunity there to agree on one point: Adrar Tigharghar seems to have been specially created by the god of rebellion for shelter combatants in war against conventional forces.

Link:http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/articl...0262_3212.html