UK Counter-Terrorism (merged thread)

[Bill Moore]

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/0...est/?hpt=hp_t4

UK trial reveals new al Qaeda strategy to hit West

The trial of three Birmingham men convicted Thursday of plotting to launch a "catastrophic" suicide bombing attack in the United Kingdom revealed that al Qaeda has developed a new strategy to target the West.

Not really new, but a lot of interesting detail coming out of this case.

Pantucci says the pressures on al Qaeda have resulted in a shift toward a new model of "fire and forget."

The March 2012 Toulouse terrorist shootings provided further evidence of looser control by al Qaeda of terrorist plots in the West. The perpetrator of the attack - Mohammed Merah - was encouraged by the group to return to France to launch an attack during a short stay in the tribal areas of Pakistan in September 2011 but planned every aspect of the operation himself, including which targets to strike.

[davidbfpo]

I am slowly reading the various post-trial MSM reports on this case, which has some aspects that are troubling and others that portray the convicted men as bumbling idiots. Yes they seen, no heard to be angry, motivated and trained. Much of the evidence came from bugging their conversations, even this:

MI5 on hearing via their home bug that these incompetent idiots were looking to buy a car for their gunpowder plot, managed to get them to buy a pre-bugged vehicle that they (MI5) had supplied.

Source not id'd. so could be "spin".

Troubling:

The two Irfans were also in contact with Lashkar-e-Taiba, the extremist group behind... Mumbai in 2008.

From:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...1-8505036.html

If LeT were involved that is to my knowledge the first time this originally Kashmiri group has taken such an anti-UK step - training for an attack in the UK. LeT are known for sending well-trained cadres to Afghanistan to ISAF & Afghan forces.

Bill cited Raffaello Pantucci, a now London-based analyst at RUSI, has a longer comment on:http://raffaellopantucci.com/2013/02...rrorism-today/

This BBC report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21534048 has a key 'lesson' and weakness for Jihadists:

One of them even conceded to police that if his two fellow plotters managed to find women who would have them, their anger with the world may have eventually gone away.

The plotters also appear to have overlooked the reaction of the local community, when they used bogus street collection to raise funds and lose them:

As for the cash, Naseer and his recruits went onto the streets of Birmingham during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, rattling collection buckets and wearing high-visibility tabards. They sought donations for a local madrassah project and a legitimate international development British charity, Muslim Aid. But the real plan was to con ordinary people. They collected some £13,000 from Muslims who regard it as a religious and moral duty to give to charity during Ramadan. Rahin Ahmed, another member of the cell, said he could make more money by investing it in online currency trading - he lost £9,000.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21414518

There is another aspect of this plot which fits on another thread, the failure of those who knew others had gone to Pakistan for terror training failing to inform the authorities.

[davidbfpo]

Steve Coll adds a different, long term perspective and ends:

Jihadist violence presents an enduring danger. Its proponents will rise and ebb; the amorphous threats that they pose will require adaptive security policies and, occasionally, military action. Yet the empirical case for a worldwide state of war against a corporeal thing called Al Qaeda looks increasingly threadbare. A war against a name is a war in name only.

Link:http://www.newyorker.com/talk/commen...#ixzz2LuFQXBpA

In discussions with analysts one conclusion was that a name change for AQ could make CT strategy difficult, which may explain why of late new names appear for what were suspected to be AQ affiliates.

[bourbon]

Steve Coll adds a different, long term perspective and ends:

Link:http://www.newyorker.com/talk/commen...#ixzz2LuFQXBpA

In discussions with analysts one conclusion was that a name change for AQ could make CT strategy difficult, which may explain why of late new names appear for what were suspected to be AQ affiliates.

Terrorism is about branding. The AQ brand is either dead or on life support right now.

Pre-9/11 AQ was like the Harvard of terrorism – you had to apply and few were selected. These days AQ is like a community college where anyone can show up so long as they have a pulse and a checkbook.

We are literally finding feeble-minded suspects in the west trying to launch attacks under the AQ brand. Actual frittata's – I swear some of these guys will burn their lips on an exhaust pipe trying to blow-up a bus.

[davidbfpo]

A short article by Andy Liepman, formerly at the US NCTC and now a senior policy analyst at RAND. Amidst is this passage:

Whether in Pakistan after evacuating Afghanistan or its current foray into Syria from its base in Iraq, al Qaeda remains a force to be reckoned with.

Al Qaeda's message has steadily lost resonance, but as long as it takes root among even a tiny minority of potential recruits, it is premature to declare victory. With skill and persistence, a balanced appreciation for the threats that exist, and an enemy that continually shoots itself in the foot, the United States and its allies continue to make steady progress. Al Qaeda's operational capabilities are diminished, yet just one suicide bomber taking down an aircraft full of innocents would change that narrative abruptly.

Link:http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/...-but-dangerous

Although mentioned elsewhere about Syria it is interesting to contrast Andy's article with Bruce Hoffman's - which would not have such a headline:http://www.middleeast-armscontrol.co...rorism-threat/

[Bob's World]

It has never been about any organization, it has always been about the underlying forces of causation that these organizations emerge from and tap into.

To celebrate the "end of AQ" is like celebrating the melting of snow in December...It it is still winter new snow will replace the old. Same with insurgency or with UW organizations such as AQ who tap into the insurgent conditions of others.

Not much, beyond the self-help of Arab Spring, has been done to address the conditions AQ taps into. The West is still chasing symptoms and blaming ideology, poor economies, etc.