Ive got some local context given to me and some general thoughts.

A very good friend of mine is part of a wealthy and well connected korean family living in seoul. They have been moving money out of the country this time which is something they have never done before. they have also prepared plans to leave, which is also new.

As far as general thoughts. If we are attacked I believe we will be caught flat footed. Its classic boy who cried wolf and if they act now, it will be after the public has determined thats its only another show.


How many times has the US and ROKs taken a hit and done nothing? mini subs, arty fire, sunken ships, DPRK agents and sympathizers in the south. They have been allowed to take such action with impunity because have had no meaningful response. They may perceive this as batting 100%, and they may be right.

Didn't Saddam believe we would not intervene in kuwait because 1. we told him kuwait wasn't an american concern 2. The 16 some-odd UN resolutions that did nothing militarily and had no teeth and 3. He believed the US military risk avers and afraid of casualties

Its entirely possible in my eyes that kim jong un sees the US and the ROKs in a similar light.