Truer words were never spake...
Truer words were never spake...
For a concise analysis on the way ahead in Libya: http://abcclio.blogspot.com/2011/02/...jected-to.html
Most of those even evolve over time, as the USSR, China, Cambodia and Vietnam to name a few show. Currently being an average citizen in a country that was "lost" to communism in the post WWII upheaval is often a better deal than being an average citizen in one of the many buffer states where the US implemented the control measures of a long containment strategy that has nurtured the rise of the majority of the states that top the "least free" list.
Ideology is over sold and over played. Bad ideologies may be just the ticket to carry an insurgency to success. That is the role of ideology, to take a position that the state either cannot or will not co-opt, that speaks to the target populace and motivates them to join and stay the course. Good ideologies can work for that too; but the good ones tend to endure into the peace while the bad ones all seem to evolve over time to more sustainable models.
But my point was that the populace no longer needs a bad ideology as their best option to move against the government, they moved on their own. So the issue now is what waits for them after the victory parade? The US does our own national interests a disservice when we cling to friends or foes alike after situations evolve, or in this case revolve. We need to stand ready to work with what ever or whomever emerges; we need to be prepared to use influence or even reasonable force where necessary to protect populaces from the government as well as from the insurgent; and we need to have an open offer of support on the table to help new groups organize and get their feet on the ground as they take on the overwhelming task of governance. But that does not mean latching onto new despots to replace old ones as we too often do; or forcing a made in America solution up the backside of these emerging populaces.
As an aside I flipped by Fox news yesterday and the anchor was talking about Libya and how "Qaddafi is willing to murder his populace to stay in office" as they debated the option of a no-fly zone. I could not help but think "How is this different from Mr. Karzai and his willingness to murder his populace to stay in office, or our commitment to help murder his populace to keep him in office? This is what state's do in COIN when they see it as war by the people against the state, they wage war back and murder the populace that dares to challenge their flawed governance, even if or particularly if they have offered the populace few to no less violent options to express their discontent.
COIN is governance rising to civil emergency by a government in its role of serving and protecting the entire populace. No more, no less. COIN is continuous and most often innocuous and prophylactic in nature. It only becomes reactive as the proactive measures begin to fall short. It only becomes war only when the government has totally failed and is desperately seeking to simply crush those who dare to defy their rule.
I don't know how we do "neutral intervention" to facilitate the best possible self-determination (ass assessed from the perspective of the recipient populace). We've never done it before.
Robert C. Jones
Intellectus Supra Scientia
(Understanding is more important than Knowledge)
"The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)
Debatable assertion. In Latin America, which probably saw the most egregious US meddling in the Cold War, the only state on the "not free" list is Cuba. Most of the states once ruled by US puppet dictators have made the transition out of dictatorship.
In East Asia, another area which saw Cold War era meddling on a grand scale, the "not free" list is dominated by North Korea, China, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam.
If you look at the Freedom House "Least Free" list, you get this:
1. Burma
2. Cuba
3. Libya
4. North Korea
5. Somalia
6. Sudan
7. Turkmenistan
8. Uzbekistan
How many of those saw US-implemented "control measures" during the Cold War? How do you justify talk of "a long containment strategy that has nurtured the rise of the majority of the states that top the "least free" list"?
Even at the next tier, you get:
1. Belarus
2. China
3. Chad
4. Equatorial Guinea
5. Eritrea
6. Laos
7. Saudi Arabia
8. Syria
9. Zimbabwe
Not exactly a collection of places where the US has implemented "control measures". The US has very little influence in any of these, certainly not enough to control anyone or prevent anyone from being controlled.
Agreed.
We also have to accept that populaces may not want us involved, and we have to be willing to refrain from intrusion where it's not welcome or appropriate.
New despots can and often will replace the old ones without any help or encouragement from us. When that occurs we will, as you recommend above, "stand ready to work with what ever or whomever emerges".
Very simply, we don't. All we can do is wait for people to act and then, to the extent compatible with our interests and limitations, act in support. We should not intervene unless asked to do so by parties with a credible claim to represent the popular will, we should not assume that any populace wants what we think they should, and we should not try to initiate "popular" action.
We also have to remember, always, that populaces are not uniform and what one sector of the populace is willing to fight for may be anathema to other sectors of the same populace.
It becomes less debatable when one looks at all 47 assessed as "not free" rather than just the bottom 10. Any state on that list of 47 is ripe for insurgency. Many that make the top 10 are so bad that no insurgency has much chance to get going as any sign of subversion is quickly crushed.
http://www.freedomhouse.org/images/F...et_1_11_11.pdf
That main point is to not so totally freaked out by who shows up to help the populace gain freedom that we overract by committing ourselves to keeping despots in power. I hear it every day on the news and I see it everyday in our foreign policy. We need to evolve.
Robert C. Jones
Intellectus Supra Scientia
(Understanding is more important than Knowledge)
"The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)
You specifically referred to "states where the US implemented the control measures of a long containment strategy that has nurtured the rise of the majority of the states that top the "least free" list". That is demonstrably not true.
I won't take the time to break down the 47 but on a quick scan it does not at all seem to be dominated by US allies or regimes the US nurtured as part of a strategy of containment. I suspect that on a global basis you'd find that more of those "US-nurtured" despotisms have made the transition to democracy than those of the many despots we didn't nurture.
Who exactly is showing up to "help the populace gain freedom"?
We should not be so naive as to think that anyone who fights a despot is fighting for freedom. Often they've simply spotted a weak regime that they think they can replace with their own despotism. Often the populace is quite aware of this: why do you think the populaces of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have shown so little interest in AQ's attempts to lead them into a new form of despotism? I doubt that it's because they love their rulers: they just see that AQ has nothing better to offer.
Last edited by Dayuhan; 03-05-2011 at 01:46 AM.
Kuwait bans visas for Pakistan and four other countries
http://tribune.com.pk/story/173758/k...her-countries/The ban, imposed on Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, includes suspending all tourism, visit and trade visas as well as visas sponsored by spouses, the media reported.
I think this is a suitable place for this article on the regional picture, even if the original title suggests a focus on Egypt.
The opening passage:Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/tim-par...esson-for-westThe downfall of Mubarak and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood might be a sign of democracy finally coming to Egypt, but above all it shows how tragically the west has failed to grasp what is going on in the Middle East.
davidbfpo
This should probably be cross-posted in other threads, but I think it's relevant here.
Pushpin map of violence linked to the "Movie Protest"
https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid...c96.503906&z=3
From -
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/globa...d-world/56865/Muslim Protests by John Hudson
Across the globe, a 14-minute YouTube clip of an anti-Muslim movie is sparking protests against U.S. Embassies and institutions. Visit The Atlantic Wire for the full article:
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg
The Arab Spring makes for headline, not understanding and the linked article provides a review. We have a number of threads on the theme in the Middle East forum, each set in a national context, but none for a general discussion.
I've heard the author Olivier Roy speak @ Oxford University and was impressed, so thanks to Twitter a pointer to this long academic article:http://www.journalofdemocracy.org/si...s/Roy-23-3.pdf
It opens with:He is rather optimistic and some would disagree that AQ in Iraq has been defeated. On AQ:The “Arab Spring” at first had nothing about it that was specifically “Arab” or “Muslim.” The demonstrators were calling for dignity, elections, democracy, good governance, and human rights. Unlike any Arab revolutionary movements of the past sixty years, they were concerned with individual citizenship and not with some holistic entity such as “the people,” the Muslim umma, or the Arab nation. The demonstrators referred to no Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts, burned no U.S. or Israeli flags, offered no chants in favor of the main (that is to say, Islamist) opposition parties, and expressed no wish for the establishment of an Islamic state or the implementation of shari‘aLots of examples are given of how the 'Arab Spring' has twisted to adjust to local conditions and popular, sometimes democratic demands upon Islamism.Al-Qaeda, in short, is yesterday’s news, part and parcel of the old anti-imperialist political culture that the Arab Middle East is now leaving behind.
He ends with:Instead of the secularization of society, we might do better to speak of the “autonomization” of politics from religion and of religion from politics, due to the diversification of the religious field and the inability to reconstruct religion as a political ideology. When religion is everywhere, it is nowhere. That was the underlying meaning that I took away from what Egyptian parliament speaker and Muslim Brother Saad al-Katatni said to a Salafist deputy who wanted to perform the Muslim prayer call while the house was in session: “We are all Muslims; if you want to pray there is a mosque in parliament, but parliament is not a mosque.”
The paradox of re-Islamization is that it leads to political secularization and opens the door to debate about what Islam means. This could lead to the reopening of theological debate, but that would be a consequence and not a cause of the democratization of Muslim societies.
davidbfpo
A long article to absorb at first sight 'Perceptions of the “Arab Spring” Within the Salafi-Jihadi Movement' by Aaron Y. Zelin:http://jihadology.net/2012/11/19/gue...hadi-movement/
So economy of effort or a teaser:ICSR have a short article 'At the Crossroads: The Arab Spring and the Future of Al Qaeda', with another as yet un-read report:http://icsr.info/2012/10/icsr-insigh...e-of-al-qaeda/Al Qaeda and other salafi jihadis do not see the upheaval of the Arab Spring as the death knell for their movement. Rather, they believe that they will be able to capitalize on the chaos in definable ways, and that their enemies have suffered significant geopolitical setbacks. As previously stated, one cannot take jihadi perceptions of the Arab Spring at face value as representing the true reality. These perceptions are laced with hubris, and frequently conflate the movement’s aspirations with on-the-ground reality. Yet the same can be said of Western analysts who definitively declare the jihadi movement dead: their own proclamations are likewise frequently hubristic, and project their own aspirations upon the events in question.
As McCants has noted, the Arab Spring presents “both promise and peril for the global jihadist movement.” Some of this peril is related to factors that McCants has noted, such as the emergence of Islamist parliamentarians. Other perils may relate to justifications for the use of violence. If extreme salafis embrace strategies of electoral politics and persuasion, does the raison d’être of jihadi groups recede? Although these challenges may be looming, jihadis were less concerned about them during the first year of statements on the Arab Spring, and far more interested in the perceived opportunities presented to the movement.
Our analysis of 101 significant documents produced by jihadi thinkers highlights a rather complex and detailed understanding of the ramifications of the uprisings. This understanding includes a developed outlook regarding the geopolitics of regime change; an assessment of specific advantages that the jihadi movement might enjoy; and a developing doctrine regarding the movement’s goals, and strategy to attain those goals, in the post-revolution world. Without understanding how jihadis view the uprisings, we will be at a great disadvantage in attempting to predict the future of the salafi jihadi movement.
They conclude:....Al Qaeda’s responses to the Arab Spring are of an organization that is losing momentum, while – at the same time – also presenting new opportunities. Al Qaeda, therefore, is at a crossroads: whether or not it survives will be decided by how well it adapts to events that are beyond its control.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 11-20-2012 at 12:04 AM.
davidbfpo
An article in Perspectives on Terrorism, an e-journal and the Abstract says:Link:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/.../view/228/htmlThe Arab revolutions, often referred to collectively as the ‘Arab Spring’, posed, and continue to present, a considerable challenge for Al-Qaeda. This article assesses how Al-Qaeda’s senior leadership, as well as affiliates and associates, have responded to the Arab Spring, by analysing media material and public communiqués issued in the aftermath of the uprisings. The first section discusses the impact of the Arab Spring on Al-Qaeda. The second section explores the Al-Qaeda core leadership response to the revolutions, especially the ways in which Ayman Al-Zawahiri has chosen to frame the events. The third section examines the way Al-Qaeda’s affiliates and associates have responded to the revolutions, including contributions to the English-language Inspire magazine. Overall, The article describes how Al-Qaeda has sought to interpret the events in its favour and how it hopes to exploit the current turmoil in the wake of the Arab revolutions.
davidbfpo
IMHO an update on the original 2008 theme, an article in The Guardian 'Is the Middle East heading for a full-blown religious war?':http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013...war?CMP=twt_gu
Vali Nasr is cited too and near the end:Nasr, who is more optimistic than most, suggests, too, that the current tensions can be seen as marking the final unravelling of the shape of the region first conceived in the Anglo-French Sykes-Picot agreement that foresaw the dismemberment of the Ottoman Turkish empire.
"Those structures are now coming undone: first under the boots of US soldiers in Iraq and more recently under the heels of the democracy protesters of the Arab spring."
davidbfpo
A succinct analysis, The Arab world to 2020 by Shashank Joshi, of RUSI, one of the few analysts I follow. He starts with:Worth reading IMHO, it is UK-centric though, caveat aside it will make sense to SWC readers:http://shashankjoshi.files.wordpress...d-to-20201.pdfIt would be trivial to observe that the Arab world is changing fast. But to grasp the pace and scale of the transformation, consider the following intellectual exercise: compare the post-war change in the political landscape of Europe on the one hand, and the Middle East on the other.
(His last sentence). The Arab spring was neither teleological nor uniform, and navigating its waves will be the central task of the next decade.
davidbfpo
Two book reviews:Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...rab-uprisings/A new wave of political science is now digging deep into that remarkable moment, even as its history threatens to be swept away by the new demands of chaos, war and autocratic restoration. I am delighted to highlight two new publications: My edited book “The Arab Uprisings Explained” and “Explaining the Unexpected,” a symposium in the American Political Science Association journal Perspectives on Politics (which Cambridge University Press has kindly un-gated) debating whether and why political scientists failed to predict the uprisings.
davidbfpo
David,
In hindsight, did the Arab Spring fail? It seems like as of this moment in time, Tunisia is the only country to make the transition from authoritarianism to democracy. The movement was crushed in the Gulf kingdoms. Syria is in civil war and Libya is in a low-level one, while Egypt has cemented the domination of the military. The discourse of revolution and resistance in the region is almost exclusively defined by Islamism - it's a question of degree. What happened to the liberal and secular movements? And was the Arab Spring at least successful in disseminating the language of democracy and human rights?
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
Not focused on "deep analysis" but worth a read
http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...l#.VCLZIvldVPw
AP asked:I agree today it looks as if it did - Tunisia is the only real gain. Like most popular uprisings, whether they are no-violent or violent, the 'Arab Spring' awakened many, even the majority, that change was possible and the people could achieve change.In hindsight, did the Arab Spring fail?
It may take a long time for the 'Spring' to really have success. I read this week that population growth across MENA vastly exceeds the ability to generate work and other pressures exist - such as Yemen's lack of potable water.
So like Chou En Lai's comment IIRC on the French Revolution "It is too early to judge its effect".
Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-25-2014 at 02:42 PM.
davidbfpo
A critical article on the choices of allies and friends in the region, referring to President Obama's UN speech:http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept....lJpdBrd4.dpbs
Another, academic article asks - rightly - what do these allies now gain from supporting the USA? Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/opense...rikes-on-syriaObama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. Obama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept....lJpdBrd4.dpuf Obama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept....lJpdBrd4.dpuf Obama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept....lJpdBrd4.dpuf Obama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept....lJpdBrd4.dpuf
Obama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept...Brd4.dpufObama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept....lJpdBrd4.dpuf
Obama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept...Brd4.dpufObama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept....lJpdBrd4.dpuf
Obama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept...Brd4.dpufObama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept...Brd4.dpufObama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept....lJpdBrd4.dpuf
This is the nub of the issue. While "thinking globally and acting cooperatively", Obama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept...dBrd4.dpufThis is the nub of the issue. While "thinking globally and acting cooperatively", Obama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept...dBrd4.dpufThis is the nub of the issue. While "thinking globally and acting cooperatively", Obama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept...dBrd4.dpufThis is the nub of the issue. While "thinking globally and acting cooperatively", Obama is trying to combat religious extremism – aided by some of the countries most responsible for creating it. He is right to say that no counterterrorism strategy can succeed where the only choice for young people is "between the dictates of a state, or the lure of an extremist underground", but that is exactly the choice that most of the Arab countries provide. - See more at: http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/sept....lJpdBrd4.dpuf.. the endurance of authoritarian rule is a major root cause of the Middle East’s chronic instability.
davidbfpo
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