South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[Dayuhan]

My irrational side at times suggests we should just sink their entire Navy since they only seem to it use it to intimidate developing nations, and I suspect it wouldn't be that hard to do, but of course that isn't practical and it ultimately won't achieve much but make the world a more dangerous place. But it is important to realize they're not as powerful as they think they are, it is important to the overall context. Someone is going to bite China back eventually, and then the nationalists and media throughout the region will more than likely spin the event beyond control of those who may have a more responsible approach. At that point buckle your chin strap, we'll all be in for a bumpy ride.

I agree, but I'm not sure the Chinese really think they are all that strong, though they badly need to be seen as strong, both regionally and domestically. I do not think the Chinese have any intention of crossing the line into shooting with the Japanese, as the outcome of such an encounter could easily go badly for them. Even Vietnam has the capacity to bite back: they couldn't win a full scale war with China, but China wouldn't want a full scale war and getting spanked in a skirmish would be a very unattractive prospect for them. That's why the focus is on the Philippines, where China can act aggressively (domestically they would say "assertively") with essentially no risk.

The danger, of course, is that as the Chinese economy runs into reality, the government will rely more and more on jingoism and patriotism to keep the populace in line. That could easily create a position whee they feel that talking strong isn't enough, and they feel the need to do something. Where that would go is far from clear, bit my guess is that the target would be the Philippines and the scale would be calibrated to fall below any level that would elicit anything beyond a verbal response from the US.

I don't think the Chinese want a war: they have little to gain and a great deal to lose. At the same time, their perceived need to look strong and keep proving that they have "made China great again" may put them in a spot where they feel they must do something.

There are those who will criticise the US and their 'imperialist' attitudes of yore, to include those who claim to be Americans. They fail to realise that the US has evolved. No longer they proclaim such attitude in governance. Therefore, much reviled earlier, the US does appear very acceptable.

Has anyone criticized the US history of imperialism in any context relevant to this particular situation? Seems to me that the issue is not whether the US is or is not “acceptable”, but what the US is or is not willing to do. The US has embraced strategic ambiguity as a useful tool, but I do not think anybody in this picture really believes that the US would impose serious military or economic repercussions on China over a scuffle in the Spratlys. It’s possible that this assessment could be wrong… but I doubt it.

Lebensraum is today a four letter word!

Certainly so, but since nobody has invoked the word or the concept, it seems a bit of a straw man. The Spratly, Paracel, and Senkaku islands are irrelevant from a lebensraum perspective, all of them combined wouldn’t sustain the population of one Shanghai city block. Have the Chinese said or done anything that suggests an intent or desire to acquire lebensraum through conquest?

China and their supporters, need to grow up and realise that the world is a changed place from the days, when imperialism, colonialism and hegemonic aspirations were the order of the day.

Even Burkina Faso, purely on humanitarian grounds, cannot be taken over without international condemnation!

Of course the last one in the door always wants it closed behind them.

Certainly one cannot take over other countries without international condemnation, not that the Chinese care much about international condemnation, unless it is backed up by action. The Chinese haven’t taken anyone over, though. What imperial, colonial, or hegemonic ambitions would you assume that they have, and why?