Modernization Theory is Hokum.

[TheCurmudgeon]

It is possible, but it depends on circumstances, the resistance of natives to imported ideas, and how they perceive the source.

I am not sure I totally agree with this. Being an outsider, particularly one that has already been demonized by the religious leadership (Infidels) means that you have a harder time selling your ideas where they differ from the ideas of the population. But if the ideas match those of the local population I think your job is much easier.

An example is roads. Building a road is a "Muslim" thing to do. It benifits the Ummah (population in general). I had a local national tell my XO "you can build your road, but we don't want your religion or your culture."

The Vietnamese are quite receptive to new ideas that will improve their lives, they'd resist them if it came from a colonial or occupying force where the intent is to tighten control over their lives, as compared to the present policy of exploiting capitalism to advance the GDP, improve the lives of the proletariat and enrich the elite.

I am not sure about this. Vietnam doesn't like new ideas even if they come from within the country.

Vietnam restricts social media posts

"Personal electronic sites are only allowed to put news owned by that person, and are not allowed to 'quote', 'gather' or summarise information from press organisations or government websites,” local media quoted Hoang Vinh Bao, director of the Broadcasting and Electronic Information Department at the Ministry of Information and Communications, as saying.

That is not unique to Vietnam, it is the nature of any like situated society (to a point).

Afghanistan requires a critical mass of urbanization to counter balance the warlords and tribal elders who are protective of the influence they command in their bailiwicks, and the Taliban who tap into a deeply embedded independent minded paranoiac patriarchal culture to justify and sustain their insurgency and eventual power grab.

This "urbanization" myth is exactly what I am talking about. Urbanization has existed for centuries. Most city-states were urban. Yet they were not modern democracies. Urbanization is associated with increased income and GDP, but not necessarily required by it. The changes that bring about a more open society are social.

In fifty years Afghanistan might be comfortable with accepting the benefits of civilization.

I am not sure what you mean by the "benefits of civilization", and no offense to the Afghans, but unless they find a way to harness and sell solar power or we make heroin legal, Afghanistan will look pretty much exactly the way it does not in fifty years. Without a steady source of income and a substantial rise in per capita GDP, nothing there is going to change.