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Thread: Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

  1. #341
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
    Has it occured to you that the "Civil War" in Syria might actually be the war of AQ & Happy Funtime Friends Club spilling into Syria, like from A-stan, Libya, ad nauseum?
    'm sure they've moved in, being the opportunists that they are but I see no credible evidence suggesting that they initiated the fighting.

    Global Research is not exactly a credible source, and the pipeline-as-casus-belli theory doesn't stand up to examination.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-29-2013 at 09:22 PM. Reason: This was in a separate thread, now merged into main Syrian thread, so may appear out of sequence
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    This conflict may have originated from indigenous sources, but regardless its character rapidly evolved. It has quickly become a proxy war for a number of nations and part of the larger civil war between Shi'a and Sunni throughout the Muslim world.

    I think the border nations are conducting a skillful balancing act to contain the effects from spreading to elements of their population, but the ability to maintain that balance could become more challenging if we launch missiles into Syria.

    Both parties know this, which is why attacks have been conducted in Lebanon which I assume were deterrent warning shots directed at Hezbollah by the Sunni resistance. This conflict doesn't parallel the Spanish Civil War, but I agree there are currently many similarities. What differs is the ethnic versus ideological character of the motivation (yet there does seem to be some small elements of the resistance who have a political ideology instead of fighting for their tribes supremacy). Additionally, some of the external actors in the fighting (AQ and Hezbollah) have global networks and greater than Syria ambitions.

    This may stay contained to Syria, but it will be a miracle if it does.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-29-2013 at 09:22 PM. Reason: This was in a separate thread, now merged into main Syrian thread, so may appear out of sequence

  3. #343
    Council Member ganulv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
    Both parties know this, which is why attacks have been conducted in Lebanon which I assume were deterrent warning shots directed at Hezbollah by the Sunni resistance. This conflict doesn't parallel the Spanish Civil War, but I agree there are currently many similarities. What differs is the ethnic versus ideological character of the motivation (yet there does seem to be some small elements of the resistance who have a political ideology instead of fighting for their tribes supremacy). Additionally, some of the external actors in the fighting (AQ and Hezbollah) have global networks and greater than Syria ambitions.

    This may stay contained to Syria, but it will be a miracle if it does.
    It’s worth remembering that Syria occupied Lebanon for almost three decades. And might still be doing so today if not for the ham-handed assassination of Rafic Hariri in 2005.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-29-2013 at 09:22 PM. Reason: This was in a separate thread, now merged into main Syrian thread, so may appear out of sequence
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

  4. #344
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    Ganulv and David, you are too kind to Tariq. I guess he seems so harmless that there is no harm in being polite. But I think the opportunity cost of his brand of "paint by numbers" is very high in the non-western world. I try not to be too courteous to him.

  5. #345
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    Default Are some eras crumbling as well ?

    Assad's era might be crumbling, but some other eras may fare no better. The era of international legalism may well be past - without too many tears shed by too many. But, some sacred cows (such as the UN and EU-NATO) should feel threatened. In any event, no one seems to be making strong legalistic arguments for Syrian intervention; the arguments being made are very moralistic. Take the following three pieces, for example.

    First, a very straight-forward article by Ian Hurd (scarcely a rightist), Bomb Syria, Even if It Is Illegal (NYT, August 27, 2013):

    EVANSTON, Ill. — The latest atrocities in the Syrian civil war, which has killed more than 100,000 people, demand an urgent response to deter further massacres and to punish President Bashar al-Assad. But there is widespread confusion over the legal basis for the use of force in these terrible circumstances. As a legal matter, the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons does not automatically justify armed intervention by the United States.

    There are moral reasons for disregarding the law, and I believe the Obama administration should intervene in Syria. But it should not pretend that there is a legal justification in existing law. ...
    Hurd then goes on to make Assad's legalistic case, noting at two points:

    ... the treaties rely on the United Nations Security Council to enforce them — a major flaw. ...
    ...
    But the conventions also don’t mean much unless the Security Council agrees to act. It is an indictment of the current state of international law that there is no universally recognized basis to intervene.
    But, of course, that is precisely how (and why) the UNSC was set up in the first place. Hurd knows that well; he wrote a recent article about it, The UN Security Council and the International Rule of Law (Chinese Journal of International Politics, May 2013). Or, as he states here, Is Humanitarian Intervention Legal? The Rule of Law in an Incoherent World (2011):

    The concept of humanitarian intervention has evolved as a subset of the laws governing the use of force and has very quickly come to occupy an institutional position alongside self-defense and Security Council authorization as a legal and legitimate reason for war. It is both widely accepted and yet still highly controversial.

    This article considers whether humanitarian intervention is legal under international law. This is a common question but one that produces an uncertain answer: humanitarian intervention appears to contradict the United Nations Charter, but developments in state practice since 1945 might have made it legal under certain circumstances. Those who argue for its legality cite state practice and international norms to support the view that the prohibition on war is no longer what it appears to be in the Charter.

    The debate suggests that humanitarian intervention is either legal or illegal depending on one’s understanding of how international law is constructed, changed, and represented. Since these questions cannot be answered definitively, the uncertainty remains fundamental, and the legality of humanitarian intervention is essentially indeterminate. No amount of debate over the law or recent cases will resolve its status; it is both legal and illegal at the same time.
    Rick Pildes, Creating New International Law “Justifications” for Using Military Force Against Syria (Lawfare, August 29, 2013), sums up (without necessarily endorsing) the three principal moralistic arguments:

    As I noted in an earlier post, the newly emerging uses of multi-lateral military force for humanitarian intervention — such as to respond to states that gas their own citizens — raise profound issues about the relationship between “the rule of (international) law” and morality/political judgment. Under existing international law, it is difficult to justify legally use of military force against Syria; there is no self-defense justification and no approval from the Security Council. And try to imagine the process of revising the governing legal text — the UN Charter — to permit force in new circumstances not contemplated when the Charter was created.

    National political leaders in these situations have three options.

    First, they can conclude, with tragic sorrow, that even though they believe the most compelling moral and political reasons exist for using military force, they cannot act because international law prohibits it: military force would be illegal.

    Second, they (and notice, of course, the prior question of who the “they” are, or must be, to justify this) can acknowledge that they are violating international law, but that they believe their actions are justified for reasons more important than the “rule of law.” ...
    ...
    Third, they can do what the British government now appears to be doing: turn the compelling moral reasons in which they believe into new “legal” justifications for the use of force. This creates a kind of illusion (perhaps necessary, perhaps justified) that they are complying with existing international law — when the truer account is that they are creating new legal arguments outside the framework of existing law. ...
    Finally, we have Jack Goldsmith, UK Legal Position On Humanitarian Intervention in Syria (Lawfare, August 29, 2013), taking down the UKG on its legal logic:

    The UK “legal position” contains not a bit of legal analysis. It does not explain how humanitarian intervention as it describes it is consistent with the U.N. Charter’s clear prohibition on the use of force absent Security Council authorization or in self-defense. Presumably to be lawful in the face of the Charter, the doctrine of humanitarian intervention must be supported by customary international law. Yet the UK does not try to explain why it believes that humanitarian intervention as it describes it represents the general and consistent practice of states followed from a sense of legal obligation. It does not try to do this, I think, because there would be no basis for such a position. So in the end this is just a UK ipse dixit that (as the paper puts it in the end) intervention is justified as an “exceptional measure on grounds of overwhelming humanitarian necessity.” I.e. the UK thinks the ends justify the means, including non-compliance with the U.N. Charter.
    And so it goes.

    Regards

    Mike
    Last edited by jmm99; 08-29-2013 at 10:27 PM.

  6. #346
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    A U.N. diplomat says Russia has called for an urgent meeting of the five permanent Security Council members on the crisis in Syria.

    http://www.thespec.com/news-story/40...urity-council/
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    Has anyone here seen a proclamation from AQ (outside or inside of Syria) that frames the fact its members are fighting in Syria?

    I see a lot of media making the claim, referring to seeing flags and such, and all around making it sound as though every foreign fighter is by default Al-Qaeda.

    I'm just talking out loud here, but when people get their panties in a twist about AQ somehow "coming to power" if Assad's regime falls, what the hell does that even mean? I'm getting a little jaded by the continued portrayal of Syria as ending up as a win for either AQ and radical Islam, or the butchery of Assad, with no room allowed for any middle ground.

    Besides the story being repeated so much that it takes on a truth all its own, where is the evidence? Does some young Libyan's claim that he is down with Al-Qaeda pose any credible threat? There are a lot of knuckleheads who like to spout off about supporting an ideology, but so what?!?

    Furthermore, has anyone seen rational analysis that believes AQ could gain a new base in Syria?
    And why do so many presume that the if the resistance defeats Assad, AQ would come to the fore?

    I think it's pretty short-sighted to assume that after Assad falls, the larger body of Syrian civiluans would put up with AQ in their midst. They aren't stupid, and know what happened with the Taliban, and what continues to happen in Yemen, and the border areas of Pakistan.

    Am I missing something?
    Last edited by jcustis; 08-30-2013 at 01:36 AM.

  8. #348
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    I have no doubt that individuals and groups that are sympathetic to and consider themselves allied with AQ are fighting in Syria. Whether or not they are "AQ members"... that's another story.

    I'd think the most likely outcome post-Assad is chaos, with nobody really in control of the whole and different parts under the control of different factions. Of course AQ might be able to exploit such a situation, but I can't see them taking over.

    I know it's cynical, but one could argue that a stalemate is not entirely incompatible with US interests. Is it really so bad that AQ and Hezbollah are killing each other? Certainly not so good for Syrians, but it's hard to make a credible case for the proposition that a bunch of cruise missiles will make it any better.

    The fear I often hear expressed is that if there is no intervention the conflict may escalate and spill over into other countries, but the intervention options I see being proposed seem to make that more likely, not less.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    Quote Originally Posted by jcustis View Post
    Has anyone here seen a proclamation from AQ (outside or inside of Syria) that frames the fact its members are fighting in Syria?

    I see a lot of media making the claim, referring to seeing flags and such, and all around making it sound as though every foreign fighter is by default Al-Qaeda.

    I'm just talking out loud here, but when people get their panties in a twist about AQ somehow "coming to power" if Assad's regime falls, what the hell does that even mean? I'm getting a little jaded by the continued portrayal of Syria as ending up as a win for either AQ and radical Islam, or the butchery of Assad, with no room allowed for any middle ground.

    Besides the story being repeated so much that it takes on a truth all its own, where is the evidence? Does some young Libyan's claim that he is down with Al-Qaeda pose any credible threat? There are a lot of knuckleheads who like to spout off about supporting an ideology, but so what?!?

    Furthermore, has anyone seen rational analysis that believes AQ could gain a new base in Syria?
    And why do so many presume that the if the resistance defeats Assad, AQ would come to the fore?

    I think it's pretty short-sighted to assume that after Assad falls, the larger body of Syrian civiluans would put up with AQ in their midst. They aren't stupid, and know what happened with the Taliban, and what continues to happen in Yemen, and the border areas of Pakistan.

    Am I missing something?
    http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-no...scape-in-syria

    Al-Qa`ida and the Salafi-Jihadi Hardliners
    Al-Qa`ida has taken a keen interest in the Syrian war. In mid- to late-2011, its Iraqi affiliate, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), helped create Jabhat al-Nusra,[39] a Syrian spinoff that declared its existence publicly in January 2012. The U.S. government listed it as a terrorist group in December 2012.[40]

    In April 2013, Jabhat al-Nusra split.[41] The ISI’s amir, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, announced that he would unite the Syrian and Iraqi factions under his own command, called the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).[42] Jabhat al-Nusra’s leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, however, rejected the decision.[43] Al-Qa`ida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri allegedly tried to resolve the dispute through a Solomonic settlement, blaming both groups equally and ordering them to remain in their country of origin.[44] Al-Baghdadi refused the mediation, saying that this would consecrate an illegitimate colonial border.[45] Instead, the ISIL has dismissed the idea of Jabhat al-Nusra as an independent entity and portrays al-Julani as a soldier gone rogue.[46]
    Of the other Salafi-jihadi factions in Syria, the most prominent has been Jaysh al-Muhajirin wa-al-Ansar. It consists of hundreds of mostly foreign fighters in the Aleppo area, led by a Chechen jihadist called Abu Omar al-Shishani who has now aligned himself with the ISIL. There are also several smaller independent jihadist groups, such as the Homs-based Jund al-Sham, which draw on militant networks in northern Lebanon.[48] A few small Syro-Lebanese networks that predate the 2011 uprising are still active, such as Fatah al-Islam and the Abdullah Azzam Battalions.[49
    ]

  10. #350
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Foreign Affairs article...

    How to Oust Assad
    And Why the United States Should Try
    http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...5YWhvby5jb20S1
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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  11. #351
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    Thank you for that Bill. Lund writes a decent article. I'd commend it as "excellent" if he'd gone to Syria vice settling for Skype and email interviews.

    One point he made satands out to me though, and thus my frustration with all the "Islamist", "salafist", "hard-line", "support an Islamic state" labels. The other legacy perhaps of Bush is that the general public thinks that within every rebel who faces Mecca to pray, there is a Bin-Laden dying to get out ala' Mr. Hyde.

    Ideology also plays a part, but the media narrative of a looming war between al-Qa`ida and other rebels has likely overstated the role of doctrinal issues. Western and Gulf pressure on the SMC to confront al-Qa`ida is likely to be a more important cause of such conflict, if it eventually erupts
    Either way, it was funny to watch Senator McCain practically have a hissy fit last night, during an interview with Piers Morgan (). But what the hell, he's been to Syria, so maybe he should formulate our policy for the way ahead ()

    If Assad falls, the US is still going to need to spend billions in engagement, reconstruction, and governance-supporting activities--or cash KSA checks--to get Syria back onto a stable footing. That is an effort that State, DoD, and the surrounding state partners don't seem to have a plan for.

    Foggy Bottom had better start hosting the conferences...Chandrakesan will likely have plenty of new material for the next book either way, I suppose.

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    Default RFE/RL Syria Roundup

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    Default Kerry's "Slam Dunk"? Syria Update...

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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    I don't generally place a great deal of faith in DEBKA, but I suspect they have this one right:

    Our military sources report that personnel, tanks and artillery of the Syrian Army’s 4th and Republican Guard Divisions, which are held responsible for the Aug. 21 chemical attack on civilians, were being moved into fortified shelters built last year against potential foreign military intervention.

    Syrian army command centers in Homs, Hama, Latakia and the Aleppo region were also being split up and dispersed, after a tip-off to Syrian and Russian intelligence that they would be targeted by the US strike. Syria has also transferred its Air Force fighter planes, bombers and attack helicopters to fortified shelters which are armored against missile and air attack.
    http://www.debka.com/article/23228/

    It is certainly courteous of the US to make their intentions known so far in advance...
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    Default The New Policy Map: Syria and Dealing with Regional Sectarian Strife

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    Default Thinking Through Military Strategy in Syria: US Military Coercion Options

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    I am sure Syria is 'target rich', it is just that the planners have to be creative and leave the hardware alone, artillery for example. How about fuel stocks, any factory that makes explosives, pilots quarters - unlikely to be hardened?

    Syrians we are told are waiting to see what happens. Make sure their normal way of learning is disrupted, starting with regime TV and radio.
    davidbfpo

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    Default How Would US Attack on Syria Affect Washington's Asia Pivot?

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    Default Statement by the President on Syria

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