Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
This is the "it's too hard" argument.
Actually it's the "it's too uncertain" argument. Given the number of actors and the range of motives involved, our ability to predict outcomes is very limited, and any effort to predict outcomes is likely to be speculative.

What strikes me as odd about the proposals for action is that the adverse outcome of inaction is invariably claimed to be the possibility of escalation and regional spillover. To avert this, we propose an escalation that is very likely to produce regional spillover. I have to question a proposed response that seems very likely to produce precisely the outcome that we're trying to avoid.

From a cynic's perspective, if a stalemate continues, the rebels and the government will continue to butcher each other and anyone caught in between. If Assad wins, he will butcher the rebels and anyone associated with them. If Assad falls, the rebels will butcher each other and anyone associated with Assad. That's horrible any way it comes out, but is it really an equation that we need to be in? If AQ and Iran/Hezbollah are going to square off and duke it out, why should we be trying to pry them apart? No doubt the whole thing is going to be very bad for Syrians, but are a few thousand tons of explosives delivered by cruise missile going to make it any better?