JMA,

the situation was worse when there was no ability to buy large amounts of LNG., i.e. before 2005.

That Russian deliveries are convenient -as some German companies had invested in the pipelines- is not disputed, however, the alternatives in form of LNG, alternatives that German companies, especially the ones without pipelines, can buy on a global market, did actually reduce the pressure. BTW did absolute traded volume change? Or is the German demand lower with constant Russian deliveries (-> higher percentage of Russian gas)?

Or from a Russain point of view. Many huge NG contracts between German companies and Russian suppliers do not longer include the condition that NG price is pegged to the crude price, a feature that would be favourable for the Russian suppliers. In addition, some huge contracts were re-negotiated in the last years with better conditions for the German customers. Does this really support your picture?

Russia has the principle advantage that her production does not decline as fast as the Norwegian or British fields in the North Sea, therefore, Russia may even use the pipelines to Germany, which IIRC are underused, to supply UK with Russian NG in future, i.e. Russia has more constructive alternatives in future, but not necessarily more power which would rely on destructive actions.