Sadly, all you suspicions are quite possible, and while some like to say all politics is local that is far from practice in the real world. Internal national level politics in Manila may ultimately be more important than local politics in the south. I'm not venturing any guesses on the future in this case, because this event can play out as a catalyst for second and third order effects in a variety of ways (both for the better and worse). Three steps forwards, two backwards, that is the nature of these conflicts.
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