CrowBat:
I won't dispute your in-depth analysis of the situation. I have not had the time nor the inclination to look into these matters. I think we have learned since Libya that the "Arab Spring" is not as much about promoting democracy as we wanted to believe. Add to that the inability to find a surrogate government to support and Russian resistance and the situation changes significantly.
As things developed in Syria concurrent with the political machinations in Libya and Egypt and even Tunisia it became clear that the final outcome in many of these places was not going to be a stable democracy. Promoting democracy is a foriegn policy as well as a security objective, but is it not achievable in Syria. Promoting regional security is also a security interest but ths situation looks fairly contained (has been for almost two years). So no reason to act there.
Chemical weapons created an exigency that warranted action. Beyond that, I don't see a national security interest in Syria that warrants intervention. That could change, and so planning is always done. But without the threat of CW, I don't see a reason to intervene.
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