'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[KingJaja]

From what I read, it doesn't seem that Boko Haram is inclined to being talked out of murdering people. Do you think the Nigerian Army can keep them suppressed to the extent that the people won't sort of take things into their own hands in a very big way?

Part of the Nigerian Army strategy seems to be to empower local civilians to take on Boko Haram (hence the "Civilian Joint Task Force"). Boko Haram's most vicious recent attacks have been against these people.

I expect the army to redouble efforts, re-arm the civilians and have them take on Boko Haram again. It will be very messy.

[carl]

Part of the Nigerian Army strategy seems to be to empower local civilians to take on Boko Haram (hence the "Civilian Joint Task Force"). Boko Haram's most vicious recent attacks have been against these people.

I expect the army to redouble efforts, re-arm the civilians and have them take on Boko Haram again. It will be very messy.

That is a classic small war fighting action, arming the local civilians. How is the army going about that? Is there some kind of formally organized entity like the CIDG or RF/PFs in Vietnam, recognizing and supporting something already forming on its own like the Sons of Iraq or is it a more informal thing?

(I expect David may moves this exchange which would be fair enough. Moderator adds: Done 5th October, posts copied to Nigeria thread. Ends)

[JMA]

That is a classic small war fighting action, arming the local civilians. How is the army going about that? Is there some kind of formally organized entity like the CIDG or RF/PFs in Vietnam, recognizing and supporting something already forming on its own like the Sons of Iraq or is it a more informal thing?

(I expect David may moves this exchange which would be fair enough.)

Carl, this smacks of reckless desperation.

The key to any grand strategy is to make sure that whatever you do/use/implement during a 'war' it does not lead to greater polarization of groups/factions after the war.

As with anywhere - and most certainly in Africa - vigilantly 'justice' will often lead to scores being settled etc. Soon will get get out of control.

A sure indication the police and military have lost control.

[carl]

JMA:

You know Africa. I only know a little. But my question and observation were made because this is a classic thing done when fighting a small war, you get the civilians on your side and into the fight in an active way. The best way to my mind is if they are somehow connected to the gov. The way the Thais did it, by putting national policemen in a village and having the civilian effort coalesce around him, is a good way. But I imagine the best way will depend upon the circumstances and place. That the Nigerian army is doing this kind of thing is to be expected but the way they are going to go about it seems to be important which is why I asked.

You know the area well. Do you think the army or gov in Nigeria can do it in such a way that they can keep some kind of control?

[davidbfpo]

I have copied eleven posts from the thread 'Mumbai-style attack in Kenya' to here, as they refer to events in Nigeria and the consequences.

[KingJaja]

Interesting article on Boko Haram by a local journalist:

Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan, a third in a succession of non-soldier elected Presidents since 1965, seems overly optimistic about the fire power of his troops. The military had offered a full combatant response to the lingering terror activities by the Boko Haram, a position approved by the President, now bugged down by outright war against the terrorist band.

Following the scenario he was offered by the military, the President once assured Nigerians that the insurgents would be routed within six months now his troops are fighting hard to contain the radical terror gang. Last May, in adherence to the position of the military, he declared a state of emergency in affected states.

Five months into the emergency rule in three north east states, both sides have been served a heavy dosage of casualty. The sect, fighting with renewed energy and ruthlessness maintains that its doctrine abhors any form of representative government and that it would continue to fight whether or not a Christian was in power in Nigeria. To the credit of the military, most members of the elite Shura leadership council of the terror sect have been taken out.

This is clearly a setback for the sect that, before May, was at the verge of declaring over 20 local government areas of Borno and Yobe states, its official territory, effectively excising the strip from Nigeria. Geographically, the territory is weather stricken, desert land. But strategically it had the potential of robbing Nigeria access to its border with Niger, Cameroun and Chad republics.

A trusted source within the sect said Boko Haram has received assurances from al-Qaeda and from other international Jihadi brothers of material and human support. The sect planned to boost its militants by compelling youths and men that are fit, to take up arms or risk being killed.

Nigerians are beginning to credit the Federal government with the good judgment in sending in the soldiers given that the sect’s armaments have been wholesomely destroyed and narrowing its terror activities to the fringes of two states.

A trusted inside assessment of the impact of the military action reveals that at a point, the military had taken out a substantial number of the leadership of the sect thereby isolating its leader, Shekau. Had the military pushed further at the point, Shekau himself might have been taken out. But he got a respite as the military looked over its shoulder, ensuring that Shekau embarked in a rebuilding process.

It is believed that Shekau has appointed a new Shura that is said to be made up of younger, more radicalized hot heads unlike its predecessors that were Shekau’s peers and often brought his judgments to question. Creation of military backed vigilantes, a group of youths eager to reclaim their communities, counts among the ‘success stories.’

http://saharareporters.com/article/b...KVqp4M.twitter

[davidbfpo]

An article in National Geographic on Northern Nigeria Conflict, which is a sign of a far broader readership than most reporting in the USA. Nothing startling, some interesting detail and I await KingJaja's review.

Link:http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/20...ia/verini-text

[KingJaja]

davidbfpo,

I've read through it, it doesn't say anything that we haven't discussed before, but it brings to light the emerging conflict between Muslims & Christians on the interface of the Sahel - a region extending from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean.

Christians in both Nigeria & Kenya are increasingly seeing Islam as an intolerant cult - a threat to their existence. I'm afraid, the events in Westgate shopping mall & Boko Haram feed a narrative, a narrative that most of the World might choose to ignore before it is too late.

Large scale conflicts between Christians & Muslims in Africa are sadly, inevitable. Much as I don't want them to happen, they will happen.

[SWJ Blog]

The War for Nigeria

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[KingJaja]

I've mentioned this earlier, African nations like Nigeria and Kenya are very different from other "traditional" fronts on the war on terror like Somalia, Algeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria etc.

All the nations I mentioned are Islamic-dominated nations, Nigeria & Kenya are not. Kenya can be said to be "Christian-dominated" (Muslims are a fraction of the population), but Nigeria has about equal numbers of Muslims & Christians - and that's where the problems start.

Most scholars haven't investigated the impact of Boko Haram's violence on the perception of Islam by Nigeria's significant Christian community.

I live in Nigeria, the impact is quite significant and it will be reflected in the results of the next elections.

The next elections in Nigeria are likely to be a cliff hanger. I'm almost certain that it would be virtually impossible to conduct elections in Nigeria's North East (the epicenter of Boko Haram), so there would be shouts of disenfranchisement.

There are likely to be two major candidates. One will be a Christian (the incumbent) while the other is most definitely going to be a Muslim from Nigeria's North. Four years of Boko Haram violence against Churches in the North is likely to result in heavy support for the Christian candidate from the Christian community, while the converse is likely to apply for Muslims.

Right now Boko Haram is brutal but in a way, manageable. The next set of elections are likely to split the religious & sectional fault-lines wide open.

This could be worse than Yugoslavia if not handled well.

No nation on earth has the resources or capability to prevent Nigeria from imploding if the Nigerian ruling elite doesn't navigate 2015 with care. The language from the political elite isn't very encouraging.

[KingJaja]

NY Times on Boko Haram:

But about 40 miles away in Maiduguri, the sprawling state capital from where the militant group emerged, Boko Haram has been largely defeated for now, according to officials, activists and residents — a remarkable turnaround that has brought thousands of people back to the streets. The city of two million, until recently emptied of thousands of terrified inhabitants, is bustling again after four years of fear.

For several months, there have been no shootings or bombings in Maiduguri, and the sense of relief — with women lingering at market stalls on the sandy streets and men chatting under the shade of feathery green neem trees in the 95-degree heat — is palpable.

Boko Haram has been pushed out of Maiduguri largely because of the efforts of a network of youthful informer-vigilantes fed up with the routine violence and ideology of the insurgents they grew up with.

“I’m looking at these people: they collect your money, they kill you — Muslims, Christians,” said the network’s founder, Baba Lawal Ja’faar, a car and sheep salesman by trade. “The Boko Haram are saying, ‘Don’t go to the school; don’t go to the hospital.’ It’s all rubbish.”

[davidbfpo]

This thread is now rather large and will be closed. A successor thread exists and will be renamed 'Nigeria: watching and debating its future'. Sadly I don't think Nigeria is going away.

Thanks to Kingjaja for his contributions.