COIN case: LRA Lords Resistance Army

[M-A Lagrange]

An interesting article on the participation of less known actors in the hunt for Kony.
I was quite surprised that Mr Barlow accepted to jump in that messy mission... (Liked very much his book against all hods, by the way)

What surprised me the most is the accuracy of the figures given for the LRA fighters composition. Seems to me a little too accurate.

About the planes... Well, those lost parts of the world are getting crowded since 2008 Christmas and the mass murder of 800 civilians by LRA. But I agree the link with LRA is not that obvious or logical.

I would not link the planes presence to the Kivu conflict. It is quite far away and much more well equipped airports exist at a shorter flying distance. Eastern part of CAR is a nice play ground for special ops training. Also, with the fall of the CAR regime, the country entered chaos and heavy military presence in an uncontrolled part of a country where government is reduced to a list of names on a paper should not be that surprising. Especially since LRA is no more an issue for anyone, even Uganda.

What bothers me more is the harrow boy militia in South Sudan. They were set to defend the population against the LRA but were already on the path to become a "governor militia" in Western Equatoria 3 years ago.
Also, the DRC Province Oriental governor, Jean Bamanisa, just signed few month ago a military and trade agreement with the western Equatoria government. This should give a good clue on the level of LRA threat.

[davidbfpo]

An odd report:

The president of Central African Republic has told the United Nations he has negotiated with Joseph Kony, even as an African force hunts the war crimes suspect, according to a UN envoy. Abou Moussa, a UN special envoy, said in an interview with AFP news agency that Kony may be sick and that Michel Djotodia, the Central African Republic president, had told him this month he has sent food to Kony.....20 bags of food, with manioc, kasava.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...seph-Kony.html

A little detail elsewhere, more a reminder for SWC:

In April, the Ugandan army suspended a search for Kony in the CAR, blaming "hostility" from the government formed when rebel forces took power there.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25027616

The CAR is currently wrecked after a violent rebellion, with reports of genocide and communities splitting along religious lines:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24996125

[davidbfpo]

Today a different FP author "pors cold water" on yesterday's report:

Let's just say that analysts tracking Kony are, well, skeptical about that claim. What's more likely, they say, is that the government is talking to a group of LRA fighters, possibly defectors, who may have no affiliation with Kony.

(Near the end) So, don't get too optimistic about Joseph Kony being brought in anytime soon

Link:http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/...OV%2022%202013

[davidbfpo]

Post 230 in October 2013 by Crowbat refers to sightings of US military aircraft, which puzzled SWC at the time, it may do so again after a weekend DoD statement:

The Obama administration is sending about 150 special forces troops along with military aircraft to Uganda to help in the search for warlord Joseph Kony.....In the first deployment of U.S. military aircraft to the region, at least four CV-22 Osprey aircraft will arrive in Uganda by midweek, together with refueling planes and special forces airmen to fly and maintain them...US personnel were authorised to "provide information, advice and assistance" to an African Union force tracking Kony and his Lord's Resistance Army.

Originally a WaPo report, this is a UK version:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...rd-joseph-kony

Added the WaPo story:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...9e1_story.html

I am sure Crowbat will wonder at the statement:

In the first deployment of U.S. military aircraft to the region

[davidbfpo]

A rather laudatory NYT article on US SOF in Africa, as the writer follows an official tour by the SOF's BG Linder and the LRA is not the main subject. There is a long section on the hunt for the LRA by Uganda troops with SOF directly alongside, which IIRC was way beyond their original ToR, with my emphasis in bold:

Twelve days later and 4,500 miles away, in the bee-infested jungle of the Central African Republic, a team of four Green Berets and 22 Ugandan soldiers boarded CV-22 Ospreys, a kind of half-helicopter, half-airplane. It was 11 p.m., which meant they would have time to reach their objective under cover of darkness. Their mission was to raid an L.R.A. camp near a place called Nzako that recent defectors had described to them.......About half a mile from the target, two Ugandans and two Americans went ahead to conduct reconnaissance. They found a camp of 28 beds made of stacked grass that ringed the perimeter. But the beds were empty, and the fighters were gone, having most likely escaped a few days earlier. This happened all the time.

Nice to note:

Despite the reliance on the American planes, drones and dollars, it was the Ugandans who trained the Americans on how to survive.

Link:http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/06/15..._r=0&referrer=

[Bill Moore]

A rather laudatory NYT article on US SOF in Africa, as the writer follows an official tour by the SOF's BG Linder and the LRA is not the main subject. There is a long section on the hunt for the LRA by Uganda troops with SOF directly alongside, which IIRC was way beyond their original ToR, with my emphasis in bold:

Nice to note:

Link:http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/06/15..._r=0&referrer=

David,

Great article, thanks for sharing. MG Linder is the right leader, at the right place, at the right time. He is employing special operations like they should be employed in an ideal situation. The only comment I disagreed with is MG Linder's comment about state on state conflict being a thing of the past. I only wish that were true. That isn't the issue they're dealing with in Africa at the moment, but Saudi and other Sunni States are waging a proxy war against Iran and vice versa. The risk of state on state conflict in the Asia-Pacific is high and increasing.

I only bring this up, because it confounds our balancing act for ensuring our forces are ready to deal with the most significant and likely threats to our national interests. Both types of warfare, the irregular warfare MG Linder is leading and assisting other with, and conventional warfare require considerable training to be proficient at. Where do you assume risk? How do you align your forces? Does SOF only do irregular warfare, and conventional forces focus on conventional war? I still don't understand our Army's focus on the Regionally Aligned Brigades. Is nation building the right focus for the bulk of our ground combat power?

To further demonstrate the challenge, in my view it is clear that SOF is being effectively employed in Africa. Others think so also, and want SOF in other regions to mimic how SOF is being employed in Africa, which is the wrong answer. It is the right approach in Africa, not in the rest of the world. We have a military that seeks models they can replicate, yet we talk about the necessity of deep understanding and cultural nuances. We still haven't got past the talk to reality in many cases.

[JMA]

... in my view it is clear that SOF is being effectively employed in Africa.

They are?

How so?

I see no evidence of success anywhere so please enlighten me.

[JMA]

Lets look a a segment of that quote again, shall we:

About half a mile from the target, two Ugandans and two Americans went ahead to conduct reconnaissance. They found a camp of 28 beds made of stacked grass that ringed the perimeter. But the beds were empty, and the fighters were gone, having most likely escaped a few days earlier. This happened all the time.

I highlight what I consider to be the key to the problem.

With brutal honesty I would suggest that the LRA's bush craft and early warning systems are constantly underestimated - how close were the troops dropped by aircraft? Also the Ugandans would not be too unhappy to find these camps empty - and thus avoid combat. And I suggest the US troops knowledge of terrain and this enemy is underdeveloped.

I suggest a little reading of the Mau Mau in Kenya to understand the level of tracking and bushcraft skill needed to counter those 100% in tune with their environment through a lifetime of experience living in the bush.