Quote Originally Posted by Rick M View Post
Ron Patterson started his own website prior to the closing of The Oil Drum, where Ron was one of the mainstay contributors. His postings were detailed and always sourced from EIA, BP, IEA, etc.

Dave Hughes is a veteran geoscientist, now retired from the Geological Survey of Canada where he was a leading analyst re. coal and unconventional gas. He is also a meticulous researcher who is careful in his assertions.

In yesterday's posting, Ron uses Dave's forecast re. US light tight oil (LTO) to conclude that the global peak in oil production will occur "no later than 2015." Ron is not prone to making predictions (he usually simply posts the data and offers his analysis) so I'm not sure what prompted him to do so this time.

In any event, Ron's prediction is quite in line with what the Joint Operating Environment said in 2008 (and again in 2010).

http://peakoilbarrel.com/world-oil-production-peak/
Rick,

The JOE's source for their information was the IEA report, this is what IEA is saying now.

http://www.iea.org/aboutus/faqs/oil/

What is peak oil?

Peak oil can mean different things to different people. Some see it as the potential result of economies maturing and deploying more energy-efficient and diverse fuel technologies, meaning that year-on-year growth in world oil demand may level off. Others see it as the maximum possible annual rate of extraction of conventional crude oil, due either to physical resource constraints or above-ground political, economic or logistical factors. While others insist that since the definition of what constitutes conventional oil is constantly changing, total producible liquid fuels is what should be looked at.

Where does the IEA stand in the peak oil argument?

Our analysis suggests there are ample physical oil and liquid fuel resources for the foreseeable future. However, the rate at which new supplies can be developed and the break-even prices for those new supplies are changing. Global oil production levels are also dependent on the production policy of OPEC, which holds between one and six million barrels per day of spare capacity in reserve. Declining oil production in any given year can occur for one of several reasons unrelated to peak production, including OPEC production decisions, unplanned field stoppages and the impact of earlier investment decisions by the oil industry. A combination of sustained high prices and energy policies aimed at greater end-use efficiency and diversification in energy supplies might actually mean that peak oil demand occurs in the future before the resource base is anything like exhausted.
Bold highlights are mine

To me it seems the analysis is constantly adjusted based on new technologies and new oil field discoveries. None the less energy security will remain a principle security concern for most, if not all countries.