Rhodesian COIN (consolidated thread, inc original RLI)

[jmm99]

One of the sources in Mark O'Neill's Second-party Counterinsurgency is Stathis Kalyvas, his theory and empirical research into selective and indiscriminate violence in irregular civil wars. I've arranged Kalyvas' online materials in chronological order from 1999 through 2009. I've not read all of them (only a quick skim in part only); but I believe what amounts to an online book is worth the slog. On cursory view, the basic idea seems to accord with Jack McCuen (RIP 2010; Birmingham Mich obit, West Point Tribute; I may have posted these before).

First as to Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil War - Wiki

The Logic of Violence in Civil War is a book which challenges the conventional view of violence in civil wars as irrational. The main argument is that violence only emerges in those disputed territories, and it is generally driven not by the conflict itself, but by previous rancors and enmities among the population.

The author, Stathis N. Kalyvas (born 1964), is a political scientist known for his analysis of the dynamics of polarization and civil war, ethnic and non-ethnic violence, and the formation of cleavages and identities. He has also researched party politics and political institutions in Europe. He is a professor at Yale University.

Here are the online publications I found:

Stathis Kalyvas, Wanton and Senseless ? The Logic of Massacres in Algeria (1999)

Stathis Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil War (2000)

Stathis Kalyvas, Leftist Violence During the Occupation (2000), in Mark Mazower, After the War was Over: Reconstructing Family, State, and Nation in Greece, 1944-1960. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 142-183.

Stathis Kalyvas, "New" and "Old" Civil Wars: A Valid Distinction? (2001), in World Politics 54:1, 99-118.

Stathis Kalyvas, The Ontology of "Political Violence:" Action and Identity in Civil Wars (2003), in Perspectives on Politics 1:3, 475-494.

Stathis Kalyvas, The Urban Bias in Research on Civil Wars (2004), in Security Studies 13:3, 1-31.

Stathis Kalyvas, The Paradox of Terrorism in Civil Wars (2004), in Journal of Ethics 8:1, 97-138.

Stathis Kalyvas, Warfare in Civil Wars (2005), in Isabelle Duyvesteyn and Jan Angstrom (eds.), Rethinking the Nature of War. Abingdton: Frank Cass, 88-108.

Stathis Kalyvas, Promises and pitfalls of an emerging research program: the microdynamics of civil war (2009), in Stathis N. Kalyvas, Ian Shapiro, and Tarek Masoud (editors), Order, Conflict, and Violence (2009)

From the 2009 article, we get a brief summary of the theory from Kalyvas:

I operationalize control on a five-zone continuum, from zone 1 (total incumbent control) to zone 5 (total insurgent control). The main prediction is that the distribution of selective violence is likely to be bimodal, concentrating in zones 2 and 4. Incumbents will be most likely to resort to selective violence in areas where they exercise hegemonic, though not total control (which I call zone 2) and insurgents most likely to resort to the same type of violence in similar areas on their side (which I call zone 4). Areas of total control (zone 1 for incumbents and zone 5 for insurgents) will be largely free of violence (though not of repression). Areas of complete contestation and parity where both sides are simultaneously present in equal force (zone 3) will be free of violence. Figure 16.1 provides a graphic depiction of these predictions.

bimodal camel text.jpg

"Figure 16.1" - Ken White (see ref.) field expedient method of explaining a bimodal chart (beats Powerpoint, but you have to water and feed the camel ).

PSV = Peak Selective Violence (by hegemonic party); PIV = Peak Indiscriminate Violence (by non-hegemonic party). The logic is that, if you have hegemonic control, you should have good local intelligence and you can select targets. The non-hegemonic party suffers the converse; either it foregoes violence or has to go with indiscriminate violence.

Kalyvas does not promise a silver bullet, but rather a hard slog, valley by valley, village by village - with everything being very local.

Ref. for "Bactrian curve", KW post from 2008, I have whoa'd. Hoist by my own pet...

I would further submit that your Bactrian curve applies not only to the counselors at Law but to all the categories I cited, including Private and Generals and to most of the world in most things. Scary, huh?

Good reading.

Regards

Mike