If American efforts and promises fail, then Washington must accept that Islamabad will transfer some form of nuclear weapons capability to Saudi Arabia. Washington’s best policy option is be realistic rather than idealistic and maintain sufficient diplomatic and military relevance in Islamabad and Riyadh to limit the impact of this transfer on Israel’s threat calculus. America should prefer that any physical transfer of capability be limited to aircraft delivery systems and be in small numbers. These features would be the least threatening to Israel in both the short and long term, reinforcing a long-standing Pakistani nuclear weapons posture imperative.
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