Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
Bob:

I am in full agreement that the relationship between the US and Saudi gov has made for a world of trouble and may continue to do so. Some of the things you cite and conclusions you make I disagree with. I still think the whole 'resistance insurgency' and 'occupation by policy' bits are too strained and tenuous to be useful but you're right about Saudi Arabia being trouble as things stand as they are. We should rejigger the whole thing.

What should we tell them the new terms are?
Carl,

In broadest terms, I think we need to evolve in our approach to being less of an arbitrator of outcomes we believe will be best for us, to being more of a mediator of terms that the people believe will be best for them.

That means assuming a degree of risk we have up to now been unwilling to assume (after all, we have the means in our war fighting military on hand to force the outcomes we want, why allow things to go to chance?).

Control is over-rated. Certainly Containment was a very controlling strategy, so we developed some bad habits over several generations. Many now see this as normal and proper. It isn't. Certainly not in the emerging strategic environment where people are increasingly empowered and informed.

Influence needs to be our goal, and that demands we be far more pragmatic about who some particular people want (e.g., MB in Egypt), and much more plugged into what the people are thinking and feeling about their governance and about us.

For US SOF, (OK, this is my opinion, and not anything official) this means the main effort shifts from JSOC and CT over to the more diverse aspects of SOF that are primarily part of USASOC and the other service SOFs and under the C2 of our various theater SOCs. Primary mission would not be to build partner capacity, but rather simply (and critically) to develop the informal and formal understanding, relationships and influence necessary to appreciate how the people feel, to know who they blame, and to be postured to shape in the right direction in appropriate ways when necessary. Typically that will be through some partner with shared interests and direct relationships with said populations. CT will fall into the shadows as a minor, but vital, capacity to mitigate the rough edges when necessary - but again, in ways that are far less caustic than our approaches over the past several years.