Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Firn]

First deaths in the Kiev clashes. Obviously that blood spilled into the snow is bad news, as a line has now been crossed.

The ongoing fighting between demonstrators and riot police has been ferocious, but limited; hostilities have been restricted to a small corner of the capital near the government building, and the two sides observe many breaks in clashes.

But all this may be about to change. More activists are flooding into Kiev from the west, and crowds are massing at the site of the clashes. As the anger and the number of people mounts, the likelihood of a massive outbreak of violence, from either side, increases.

The Ukraine is perhaps the most important conflict area right on the borders of the EU. It is always rather obvious that Mr. Putin is trying by many means and with considerable effort to bring this rather large country into the Russian orbit. Western attempts have clearly been less pushy but relied more on the passive but strong pull of attractive elements of the EU and it's countries. It is certainly in the interest of pretty much all EU members to have an Ukraine which does not augment Russian power. 45 Million more on your side and 45 Million less on the other are in general a rather good deal even if it sounds quite crude. In my opinion in the long term the option Europe is as well a far better course for the Ukrainians as a whole then the option Russia.

Klitschko makes some good points:

SPIEGEL: Vladimir Putin once said that Ukraine was not a proper state.

Klitschko: Our neighbors to the east regrettably view the issue of EU integration exclusively from a geopolitical standpoint. But that's not the point: We are not fighting against anyone. We are choosing a road to development for our country. Unfortunately many people in Moscow still view Ukraine as "their zone" -- as part of the Russian sphere of influence. They don't understand that it would also be better for them to have a Ukraine that is a strong neighbor, with a strong economy. A Russian expansion at Ukraine's expense is impossible.

SPIEGEL: Putin says that the EU -- not Russia -- is actually intervening in Ukraine. Aren't all sides trying to make Ukraine into their sphere of influence?

Klitschko: We negotiate with Europe as equals; Russia looks down at us. The EU makes us offers; Russia wants to impose its will on us.

SPIEGEL: Would you tell him that you are striving over the long term for Ukraine to enter the EU?

Klitschko: The answer is obvious. Just look at the countries that have oriented themselves toward Europe, and those that haven't. In the former East Bloc countries we all had similar starting conditions after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Today we see the progress made by countries that have elected to take the European route. They have a high standard of living, better infrastructure, and civil rights are respected. This is the only way for us.

This Klitschko has always struck me as a smart, disciplined fellow in the couple of interviews I have heard and read before. Obviously he is in a relative weak position compared his opponents who certainly are not playing by the typical European rulebook, but they also have much to lose.