The events of the last days showed once again how difficult it is to make political predictions, especially about the future. I wrote about a president backed into a small corner and (rightly) afraid to lose his power, but I did not imagine that he was so afraid that he would decide to flee out of the country...
It was much easier to anticipate the luxury and wealth in which he lived, as he and mostly eastern oligarchs have plundered the state and the people, but the ship in the artificial lake was still a surprise. As well as the pheasants I should add.
It is difficult to understand what drove him into the political exile but losing control of most of the country, the refusal of a large part of the military and the more then doubtful loyality of the security forces seem to have been the most important elements. Who knows.
Overall it would be disgraceful if the EU, IMF and USA would miss once again a chance to support the Ukraine in it's difficult task to become a working democracy. Russia under Puntin is clearly only interested in keeping it in it's orbit. There is no doubt that in the mid to long run an Ukraine better integrated into the Western economic and political system will result in a higher standard of living for most citiziens.
The huge advantage of the Western world is it's vast financial strenght (yes, despite crisis and all). It would be amazingly stupid and possibly costly to be once again stingy. A 30 billion credit line feels like a good deal, most from the EU, maybe some of the USA and the IMF. Braking the monopolies of the oligarchs would be a good string to attach, cutting the subventions for gas a stupid one, talk about own goal. If this goes against the IMF rules, the EU should step up quickly. Raising 30 billions over a couple of years should cost the EU as a whole, even if we include some write-off, only a couple of billions at the most, perhaps at most some 10 € per capita*. The sucess is of course not secure but it should greatly increase the chances to move the Ukraine in the right direction for the good of it's citiziens.
Even 5 billons are pretty cheap for a good chance to greatly increase the political and economic stability of a rather large European country and to greatly reduce the Russian influence on it if you think how much money, possibly 100+ billion, was thrown by European nations into that far away dustbin called Afghanistan.
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