Now, as Russian troops stand in Ukraine, those worries appear prescient. Military experts say the way Russia moved against its neighbour shows all the signs of an operation prepared meticulously over a number of weeks, with the participation of the FSB, the successor of the Soviet Union’s KGB security service, where Mr Putin and many of the most influential members of his administration started their careers.
*
Sources familiar with the Russian security services and military believe that FSB agents have been working in Ukrainian cities for at least several weeks to prepare for what played out over this last weekend.
“They probably played a role in setting up some of those pro-Russian militias in Crimea, and they certainly had a big hand in organising the pro-Russian demonstrations and anti-Maidan rallies,” says a foreign diplomat in Moscow who handles his country’s liaison with the Russian security services.
He also believes that Russian agents participated in the Maidan demonstrations – both on the side of the protesters and among the Berkut, Ukraine’s riot police, to facilitate an escalation of events.
*
Foreign intelligence officials now lean towards the theory that Mr Putin decided even before the Olympics to remove Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovich from power as he had come to believe the former leader would eventually ruin Ukraine’s economy and could not be trusted to keep Kiev in Russia’s sphere of influence.
*
With this force in place and pro-Russian militias milling around in Crimea, military special forces then moved to seize key assets including the parliament building and the region’s two main airports, opening the doors for the paratroopers.
All this was flanked by an aggressive disinformation campaign which appears aimed at justifying a military intervention and goes far beyond the normal practices of Russian state media. In this light, some Russian journalists have started questioning Mr Putin’s decision before the Olympics to replace two respected state media heads with loyalists.
Russian foreign policy officials say the option of using military force against Ukraine was on the table in internal discussions early on, but a fight within the administration over the final decision was raging until a few days ago.
Bookmarks